Sensory Integration Disfunction (more recently Sensory Processing Disorder): A neurological disorder causing difficulties with processing information from one or several of the five senses (vision, auditory, touch, olfaction, and taste), and/or the positional sense. For those with SPD, sensory information is sensed, but perceived abnormally.
Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: Self evident.
Hypokalemic Sensory Overstimulation Disorder: The most prominent feature of hypokalemic sensory overstimulation is the feeling of sensory overstimulation that is characteristic of attention deficit disorder.
Dysarthria: A motor speech disorder resulting from neurological injury, characterized by poor articulation. Any of the speech subsystems (respiration, phonation, resonance, prosody, articulation and movements of jaw and tongue) can be affected. Dysarthric speech is due to some disorder in the nervous system, which in turn hinders control over, for example, the tongue, throat, lips or lungs.
Apraxia: A disorder caused by damage to specific areas of the cerebrum, characterized by loss of the ability to execute or carry out learned purposeful movements, despite having the desire and the physical ability to perform the movements. It is a disorder of motor planning which may be acquired or developmental, but may not be caused by incoordination, sensory loss, or failure to comprehend simple commands.
Autism: A disorder of neural development characterized by impaired social interaction and communication, and by restricted and repetitive behavior. These signs all begin before a child is three years old. Autism affects information processing in the brain by altering how nerve cells and their synapses connect and organize.
Pervasive Developmental Disorder - Not Otherwise Specified (PDD-NOS): A pervasive developmental disorder (PDD)/autism spectrum disorder (ASD). While those with it have some characteristics of disorders on the autistic spectrum, they don't fit the diagnostic criteria of any of the other disorders thereon. While PDD-NOS shares similarities with autism, it tends to be milder. PDD-NOS is sometimes referred to as "atypical autism" by autism specialists.
Quotes occasionally stolen from various web sources without attribution. Needless to say, this is totally fucking terrifying on multiple levels. Despite his accelerated physical growth timeline, he's long since fallen behind his fellow classmates in speech skills, motor functions (specifcially running and the manipulation of small objects with his fingers), cognition of basic concepts (he constantly confuses red with blue, seven with two, nine with six). There are so many indicators in all the above disorders that he demonstrates (slurred speech, inattention at calling his name, singleminded fixation on one form of entertainment, the requirement for constant physical sensory input, inability) that the only reaction I feel like having is punching a hole through everything in this office.
This is based on an assessment by a NY State DOH-authorized developmental evaluator as part of their Early Intervention Program. He will now be subjected to a series of physical and neurological and speech pathology examinations. The result of these exams will determine whether the State is willing to provide gratis individual developmental aid at his day care facility or whether I will be privately funding the platoon of doctors, specialists, therapists, and educators involved in properly rearing a child with a developmental or neurological disorder, if one medically exists. There remains hope that he's just a two-year-old and he needs some time to grow into his body and brain. However, when faced with the above list, there is no other available emotional response except panic.
It's there at every level. There's just a core human desire for your child to be healthy and bright and become a successful international sports playboy or Nobel laureate, so facing down the news of the wide spectrum of mild to existentially fucking severe developmental roadblocks hits that parental bone with just the appropriate resonant frequency to trigger every overreaction and internal doomsday processes you possess.
And if you can squeeze in a few seconds for empathy between the minutes of totally mindfucking abject terror, you realize these are all cognitive disorders that affect the filter through which you process your environment and existence. From a philosophical standpoint, I can't really think of anything scarier than a disease fucks with your comprehension of reality, whether via sensory translation or spatial awareness or even fucking self-awareness or another dozen cagetories of the neurological conduits between your brain and your body. And that's just from the adult POV. And now imagine this from the POV of a two year old boy who can't use a fork to eat and occasionally runs into objects and walls because his brain got distracted by something while his body happened to be walking or running, and now can't have conversations with his equally aged classmates who are finishing full sentences, in context, and the what's now likely (internally) being identified as confusion over why you aren't like the other kids and why you can't play with toys they way they do, or ask for toys the way they do, and how much rage and resentment and misery must be nascently generating from the whole situation.
I've been stuck on this paragraph for about thirty minutes trying to sum everything up, but there's no summary coming. Every aspect is totally FUBAR and represents a genetic or parental or nurturing failure somewhere along the line, and that's just psychically devastating.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Thursday, June 24, 2010
New Urbanism
I've recently witnessed an increase in the discussion of New Urbanism in various corners of my internet wanderings. There's a robust thread in the discussion forum at Ars Technica, some commentary today at The Consumerist, and it's usually a weekly topic for blogger Atrios. I suspect it's not much longer before it gets attention at other policy-minded sites like FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver's already done some quantitative real estate analysis work for New York Magazine).
New Urbanism is roughly the philosophy of urban planning focused on walkable urban centers with nearby walkable and variegated housing options. It's like the anti-Long-Island, which is all 6-lane road lined with cryptically connected strip malls. It originally formed as an aesthetic and economic response to suburban sprawl. Sprawl has a habit of encouraging McMansion style housing as a uniform rule, and not supporting a healthy mix of local commercial industry (strip malls primarily being a retail haven), resulting in inflated housing costs and inadequate employment diversity on a local basis. Naples, Florida is the worst example I can think of. It's literally a grid of 4-6 lane highways with segregated housing developments that don't connect to anything, contain no commercial space, and have only one entry/exit point that's perpetually shrouded in traffic. If you want to live in Naples, you need a car for basic survival. Grandma isn't going to make it walking across Radio Rd and down two miles in the ditch to the Publix for her meds. The majority of eastern West Virginia is also like this, where cheap land and the housing bubble resulting in the rapid spawning of McMansion developments that often didn't have a single store or strip club within ten miles, nevermind a sidewalk.
New Urbanism instead encourages a strong diversity of housing options (McMansions, smaller single homes, townhouses, apartment towers) with a diversity of industry (some retail mixed in with residential areas, more corporate and industrial options in urban centers), all mingled together in walkable neighborhoods, sometimes with easy mass transit options. The most urban example would be like non-midtown sectors of Manhattan (upper-east side? Soho?) where ground floor is mostly retail, but housing is above it, there's a ton of non-retail business in the area, and your two feet and the subway eliminate the need for a car. This obviously happened before the movement began, but it's kind of the end-goal of urban New Urbanism. A more suburban reclamation example might be North Bethesda/White Flint/Rockville Maryland, which has eliminated its cul-de-sacs and worked harder at developing its urban centers near the DC Metro line.
New Urbanism has long been an interest to more public-policy minded economists (like Atrios) who understood that the commuter society America has become isn't really economically optimal. Transportation remains a serious barrier to business in this country, and is one of the primary reasons internet commerce w/ shipping options is taking off here. But suburban sprawl also creates housing and labor mobility issues, where local wages often cannot support local housing costs. Highways and automobile maintenance costs are a major money sink. Traffic has a negative influence on regional productivity. It's all just grossly inefficient and that should rub most economists the wrong way.
However, I think this recent resurgence of New Urbanism chat in surprising places has a different origin. I don't think it's about urban planning and economics. I think it's actually just about gasoline. The wars in the middle east, the BP disaster, last summer's (and this summer's) high gas price panic, a depression and unemployment (and its impact on maintaining your car and filling the gas tank), greenhouse gases and global warming...I think there's a developing collective but perhaps subconscious panic about the long-term security and affordability of fossil fuels. The renewed focus on walkability and mass transit and local employment is about people trying to find a way to get rid of their cars. It's now a micro- concern, not macro-. About personal bank accounts instead of aggregate economic indicators. When people like Andrew Sullivan start talking about walkable neighborhoods, it's because they're envisioning themselves within it. I think this is a remarkable shift for the New Urbanism movement, which traditionally has been very academic and driven by architects and economists and only the most dedicated local government policy wonks.
I should note that while there's a certain Green aspect to New Urbanism, Green isn't really the driving force. Green is more about you moving to existing urban areas, ditching your car, etc. NU is more about revitalizing existing suburban sprawl and bringing the Green to you. Small but significant difference.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing if this new personalized interest in urban planning survives the pending economic upturn and Iraq/Afghanistan withdrawal in the next 2-3 years, to see if it's just a collective freakout over personal finances and foreign relations w/r/t oil, or if it's a genuine philosophical public shift away from bubble-era sprawl strategies.
New Urbanism is roughly the philosophy of urban planning focused on walkable urban centers with nearby walkable and variegated housing options. It's like the anti-Long-Island, which is all 6-lane road lined with cryptically connected strip malls. It originally formed as an aesthetic and economic response to suburban sprawl. Sprawl has a habit of encouraging McMansion style housing as a uniform rule, and not supporting a healthy mix of local commercial industry (strip malls primarily being a retail haven), resulting in inflated housing costs and inadequate employment diversity on a local basis. Naples, Florida is the worst example I can think of. It's literally a grid of 4-6 lane highways with segregated housing developments that don't connect to anything, contain no commercial space, and have only one entry/exit point that's perpetually shrouded in traffic. If you want to live in Naples, you need a car for basic survival. Grandma isn't going to make it walking across Radio Rd and down two miles in the ditch to the Publix for her meds. The majority of eastern West Virginia is also like this, where cheap land and the housing bubble resulting in the rapid spawning of McMansion developments that often didn't have a single store or strip club within ten miles, nevermind a sidewalk.
New Urbanism instead encourages a strong diversity of housing options (McMansions, smaller single homes, townhouses, apartment towers) with a diversity of industry (some retail mixed in with residential areas, more corporate and industrial options in urban centers), all mingled together in walkable neighborhoods, sometimes with easy mass transit options. The most urban example would be like non-midtown sectors of Manhattan (upper-east side? Soho?) where ground floor is mostly retail, but housing is above it, there's a ton of non-retail business in the area, and your two feet and the subway eliminate the need for a car. This obviously happened before the movement began, but it's kind of the end-goal of urban New Urbanism. A more suburban reclamation example might be North Bethesda/White Flint/Rockville Maryland, which has eliminated its cul-de-sacs and worked harder at developing its urban centers near the DC Metro line.
New Urbanism has long been an interest to more public-policy minded economists (like Atrios) who understood that the commuter society America has become isn't really economically optimal. Transportation remains a serious barrier to business in this country, and is one of the primary reasons internet commerce w/ shipping options is taking off here. But suburban sprawl also creates housing and labor mobility issues, where local wages often cannot support local housing costs. Highways and automobile maintenance costs are a major money sink. Traffic has a negative influence on regional productivity. It's all just grossly inefficient and that should rub most economists the wrong way.
However, I think this recent resurgence of New Urbanism chat in surprising places has a different origin. I don't think it's about urban planning and economics. I think it's actually just about gasoline. The wars in the middle east, the BP disaster, last summer's (and this summer's) high gas price panic, a depression and unemployment (and its impact on maintaining your car and filling the gas tank), greenhouse gases and global warming...I think there's a developing collective but perhaps subconscious panic about the long-term security and affordability of fossil fuels. The renewed focus on walkability and mass transit and local employment is about people trying to find a way to get rid of their cars. It's now a micro- concern, not macro-. About personal bank accounts instead of aggregate economic indicators. When people like Andrew Sullivan start talking about walkable neighborhoods, it's because they're envisioning themselves within it. I think this is a remarkable shift for the New Urbanism movement, which traditionally has been very academic and driven by architects and economists and only the most dedicated local government policy wonks.
I should note that while there's a certain Green aspect to New Urbanism, Green isn't really the driving force. Green is more about you moving to existing urban areas, ditching your car, etc. NU is more about revitalizing existing suburban sprawl and bringing the Green to you. Small but significant difference.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing if this new personalized interest in urban planning survives the pending economic upturn and Iraq/Afghanistan withdrawal in the next 2-3 years, to see if it's just a collective freakout over personal finances and foreign relations w/r/t oil, or if it's a genuine philosophical public shift away from bubble-era sprawl strategies.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
Other small notes
Mike Stanton, since being called up to the Marlins, is striking out in 42% of his at bats.
John Ely has given up 15 earned runs in his last 15 innings.
Edinson Volquez, a pitcher with whom I have a long and sordid fantasy history, has now pitched eight scoreless innings in a drug-free rehab stint. Tommy John + the residual roids in his system should produce viable results when he's eventually called up in July to replace Mike Leake's corpse.
Carlos Lee's OPS is back over .650.
Results since Hiroki Kuroda's purported mechanics change: 12 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 14K
You cannot directly add a free agent to your DL. You first have to drop another player to make room on the active roster, then move him to the DL, then pick up some other free agent to refill your roster spot.
John Ely has given up 15 earned runs in his last 15 innings.
Edinson Volquez, a pitcher with whom I have a long and sordid fantasy history, has now pitched eight scoreless innings in a drug-free rehab stint. Tommy John + the residual roids in his system should produce viable results when he's eventually called up in July to replace Mike Leake's corpse.
Carlos Lee's OPS is back over .650.
Results since Hiroki Kuroda's purported mechanics change: 12 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 14K
You cannot directly add a free agent to your DL. You first have to drop another player to make room on the active roster, then move him to the DL, then pick up some other free agent to refill your roster spot.
World Cup notes
I was in Italy for the 1994 World Cup, which incidentally involved the Italian team in the finals against a vastly superior Brazil squad. The country was basically shut down during daylight hours. Every stereotype of Italian laziness and European worship of soccer was completely and 100% accurately true during this tournament. Anywhere there was a TV (like, say, the interior of a sidewalk cafe) there were no less than fifty motionless standing viewers, punctuated briefly by moments of celebratory Italian joy (the random kissing of strangers, hugs and cheers, more kissing of women, other men, their own fingers) whenever their team scored or some despised foreign team (France, England, anything northeast of Hungary) was scored upon. And there are sidewalk cafes everywhere. My father's small mountain hometown village, an area still handicapped from an earthquake 20 years earlier, an hour inland from Salerno, filled with only the poor and infirm and alarming quantities of rubble and pre-fab housing, had two cafes and a bar. So you can imagine that in cities like Milan, Florence, and Rome the streets were basically shut down.
We obviously don't get that collective sense of community sports viewing over here. Our domestic sports championships all occur in prime time and either in private homes or out at sports bars, which isn't quite the same as spontaneous gatherings around the closest television in town.
My company is currently blocking every avenue for a video feed of the US-Slovenia game right now, and they've even gone so far as blocking ESPN Radio. I can guarantee right now that there's no work getting done in any office in western Europe in the late afternoon, because everyone is watching the WC, and it's totally normal and expected over there. I wish we had something so mesmerising and nationally revered that it could put a halt to entire lines of industry without fear of retribution and firing from bosses and Corporate.
We obviously don't get that collective sense of community sports viewing over here. Our domestic sports championships all occur in prime time and either in private homes or out at sports bars, which isn't quite the same as spontaneous gatherings around the closest television in town.
My company is currently blocking every avenue for a video feed of the US-Slovenia game right now, and they've even gone so far as blocking ESPN Radio. I can guarantee right now that there's no work getting done in any office in western Europe in the late afternoon, because everyone is watching the WC, and it's totally normal and expected over there. I wish we had something so mesmerising and nationally revered that it could put a halt to entire lines of industry without fear of retribution and firing from bosses and Corporate.
Monday, June 14, 2010
It's time to do something about third base.
.228/.375/.341 22/22/3
.308/.376/.434 32/25/1
Those are the season stats for my two current third basemen. I should note that while the second guy's numbers don't seem particularly awful, I acquired him after the majority of his offensive production, and he's been on a steady power and OBP decline since he's been in my lineup. Chipper Jones is 38 and I guess this is what we should expect from 38 year olds who aren't roided out and spend one of every three weeks inactive because some random body part is inflamed (ring finger, groin, shoulder, you name it). David Freese was a nice flash in the pan, but he's also recently been hurt, and never seems to maintain a place in the lineup. He used to bat cleanup behind Pujols. He's now batting leadoff. I'm sure he'll be 8th by next week.
So what to do? I could either try to make a trade for an established third baseman (A-Rod seems acquirable, but Ryan insists he's a keeper, and I'm not trading a keeper in return for another broken down slugger with diminishing numbers) or slum free agency again.
Aramis Ramirez is available, but somehow is currently more injured than Chipper and putting up even worse statistics. Chase Headley has a .693 OPS and isn't running anymore. Eric Hinske is a platoon guy having a hot month. Casey Blake? Kevin Kouzmanoff? Jeff Keppinger? No thanks.
OR: I can roll the dice on another 9am prospect pickup named Pedro Alvarez. The second pick of the 2008 draft by the Pirates, Pedro was ranked this offseason as the #12 prospect in the minors. His 2010 line: .285/.370/.549, with 13 HRs and 52 RBIs in 64 games. This is immediately more appetizing than Chase Headley. Given that these past two weeks seems to be the season for stud promotions, and that the "Alvarez should probably come up now" article showed up on Yahoo this morning, his arrival should be soon. If nothing else, it'll be hard for him to be worse than what I've already got, Pirates lineup notwithstanding.
.308/.376/.434 32/25/1
Those are the season stats for my two current third basemen. I should note that while the second guy's numbers don't seem particularly awful, I acquired him after the majority of his offensive production, and he's been on a steady power and OBP decline since he's been in my lineup. Chipper Jones is 38 and I guess this is what we should expect from 38 year olds who aren't roided out and spend one of every three weeks inactive because some random body part is inflamed (ring finger, groin, shoulder, you name it). David Freese was a nice flash in the pan, but he's also recently been hurt, and never seems to maintain a place in the lineup. He used to bat cleanup behind Pujols. He's now batting leadoff. I'm sure he'll be 8th by next week.
So what to do? I could either try to make a trade for an established third baseman (A-Rod seems acquirable, but Ryan insists he's a keeper, and I'm not trading a keeper in return for another broken down slugger with diminishing numbers) or slum free agency again.
Aramis Ramirez is available, but somehow is currently more injured than Chipper and putting up even worse statistics. Chase Headley has a .693 OPS and isn't running anymore. Eric Hinske is a platoon guy having a hot month. Casey Blake? Kevin Kouzmanoff? Jeff Keppinger? No thanks.
OR: I can roll the dice on another 9am prospect pickup named Pedro Alvarez. The second pick of the 2008 draft by the Pirates, Pedro was ranked this offseason as the #12 prospect in the minors. His 2010 line: .285/.370/.549, with 13 HRs and 52 RBIs in 64 games. This is immediately more appetizing than Chase Headley. Given that these past two weeks seems to be the season for stud promotions, and that the "Alvarez should probably come up now" article showed up on Yahoo this morning, his arrival should be soon. If nothing else, it'll be hard for him to be worse than what I've already got, Pirates lineup notwithstanding.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Fantasy Update
Transitive Hitting
"Last Week" Yahoo stats:
Carlos Lee: .308/.379/.615, 4 runs, 7 RBI
Brandon Phillips: .438/.455/.563, 4 runs, 4 RBI
Buster Posey: .423/.483/.615, 6 runs, 2 RBI
Mark Teixeira: .269/.367/.462, 4 runs, 2 RBI
Chipper Jones: .154/.267/.154, 1 run, 1 RBI, 1 swollen finger
Ryan Braun: .125/.214/.125, 1 run, 3 RBI (two sacrifices and one bases loaded walk)
Carl Crawford: .100/.100/.100, 2 runs, 2 RBI, 2 SB, 2 days off for no particular reason
Bobby Abreu: .087/.214/.217, 1 run, 3 RBI
As soon as my slumpers start hitting, my hitters start slumping. Some trade offers have been sent out into the wild that, if completed in tandem, would do my roster wonders for the long summer haul. I think they need to happen before July though, to leverage what tradeable assets I have before they're no longer of value. I also like the flexibility of having both Posey and Santana, because I feel that I can trade one if the right deal comes along (and target whoever's suffering through Russell Martin or Bengie Molina's seasons), but I can also hang onto both and play them at C and Util to spell whichever outfielder or third baseman decides to take this week off. I wish Abreu was hitting a little better right now, because with Carlos Lee slowly returning to (round, supple) form, he's the guy I need in my lineup the least, but is also now the least movable.
Pouncing on Free Agency
I wouldn't have heard about the Santana call-up if I'd gotten a normal night of sleep. Instead, I was awake at 4:30am again, and I arrived at work exhausted (again). So in perusing the Yahoo Roto Arcade blog, I scanned through the "Santana isn't getting called up" article, and instead of alertly moving onto the next website of interest, I lazily scrolled the mouse wheel while I awaited the caffeine to begin its dark work. Scrolled down to the comments section. Some intrepid reader had reported that ESPN Deportes had reported that Santana was getting an immediate promotion. After some hasty and desperate Google and Twitter searches to confirm, I made the add hours before Yahoo or Fangraphs or Rotowire ever bothered to write even the smallest blurb about the news.
Similarly for David Hernandez, it was tired perusal of the "Heilman is the next save candidate" article last night where again some random user bravely watched the entire Orioles game and let Pianowski know that Hernandez just got a save and was announced as the official O's closer, which wouldn't be reported on Yahoo until the next day. The lesson here is read more comments and assume the opposite of what Roto Arcade tells you.
"Last Week" Yahoo stats:
Carlos Lee: .308/.379/.615, 4 runs, 7 RBI
Brandon Phillips: .438/.455/.563, 4 runs, 4 RBI
Buster Posey: .423/.483/.615, 6 runs, 2 RBI
Mark Teixeira: .269/.367/.462, 4 runs, 2 RBI
Chipper Jones: .154/.267/.154, 1 run, 1 RBI, 1 swollen finger
Ryan Braun: .125/.214/.125, 1 run, 3 RBI (two sacrifices and one bases loaded walk)
Carl Crawford: .100/.100/.100, 2 runs, 2 RBI, 2 SB, 2 days off for no particular reason
Bobby Abreu: .087/.214/.217, 1 run, 3 RBI
As soon as my slumpers start hitting, my hitters start slumping. Some trade offers have been sent out into the wild that, if completed in tandem, would do my roster wonders for the long summer haul. I think they need to happen before July though, to leverage what tradeable assets I have before they're no longer of value. I also like the flexibility of having both Posey and Santana, because I feel that I can trade one if the right deal comes along (and target whoever's suffering through Russell Martin or Bengie Molina's seasons), but I can also hang onto both and play them at C and Util to spell whichever outfielder or third baseman decides to take this week off. I wish Abreu was hitting a little better right now, because with Carlos Lee slowly returning to (round, supple) form, he's the guy I need in my lineup the least, but is also now the least movable.
Pouncing on Free Agency
I wouldn't have heard about the Santana call-up if I'd gotten a normal night of sleep. Instead, I was awake at 4:30am again, and I arrived at work exhausted (again). So in perusing the Yahoo Roto Arcade blog, I scanned through the "Santana isn't getting called up" article, and instead of alertly moving onto the next website of interest, I lazily scrolled the mouse wheel while I awaited the caffeine to begin its dark work. Scrolled down to the comments section. Some intrepid reader had reported that ESPN Deportes had reported that Santana was getting an immediate promotion. After some hasty and desperate Google and Twitter searches to confirm, I made the add hours before Yahoo or Fangraphs or Rotowire ever bothered to write even the smallest blurb about the news.
Similarly for David Hernandez, it was tired perusal of the "Heilman is the next save candidate" article last night where again some random user bravely watched the entire Orioles game and let Pianowski know that Hernandez just got a save and was announced as the official O's closer, which wouldn't be reported on Yahoo until the next day. The lesson here is read more comments and assume the opposite of what Roto Arcade tells you.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Notable week for rookie pitchers.
On top of the amazing Strasburg game:
Wednesday: Brad Lincoln debut
Thursday: Jake Arrieta debut
Thursday: Mike Leake goes for 6-0 against the Giants
Saturday: Jaime Garcia vs Dan Haren
Wednesday: Brad Lincoln debut
Thursday: Jake Arrieta debut
Thursday: Mike Leake goes for 6-0 against the Giants
Saturday: Jaime Garcia vs Dan Haren
Boner Alert
Orioles pitching prospect Jake Arrieta is getting the call on thursday presumably to debut against the Yankees. He's been highly successful in AAA this year, with a 1.85 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.9 K/9. We of course know this means nothing to predict major league success, but is nevertheless a positive sign.
His 2010 walk rate is the highest of his professional career, at 4.2 per 9 innings. His strikeouts are trending down. And he's going to pitch for the Orioles. Unpositive signs. Personally I've been burned enough by Baltimore pitching and I'm not yet looking slum down that far.
Random trivia: Arrieta holds the record for the largest signing bonus for a fifth round draft pick ($1.1 million).
His 2010 walk rate is the highest of his professional career, at 4.2 per 9 innings. His strikeouts are trending down. And he's going to pitch for the Orioles. Unpositive signs. Personally I've been burned enough by Baltimore pitching and I'm not yet looking slum down that far.
Random trivia: Arrieta holds the record for the largest signing bonus for a fifth round draft pick ($1.1 million).
I want to talk about Strasburg.
You already know his stat line from last night, I'm not going to dig into it. However, I did watch the entire game, and I want to communicate some things you might not already know.
1) His official average fastball speed is 97.5, but really he was playing at 99 all night, occasionally touching triple digits. He maintained this speed through all seven innings. He is officially the hardest throwing starting pitcher in baseball, and only Daniel Bard and Joel Zumaya have a higher average amongst relievers. He's tied for eighth in curveball velocity (82.2) and his changeup (90.2) is only 0.8 behind Daniel Bard. His velocity is unlike anything I've ever actually had the pleasure of watching live.
2) Everything he throws has crazy movement. PitchFx data says his horizontal movement ratings are -7.2, 7.4, -8.3 for his three pitches. He doesn't even throw a two-seamer. Needless to say, he makes Ubaldo Jimenez look like Kyle Farnsworth. This is approaching Randy Johnson levels of movement, except Randy threw sidearm and so naturally everything broke to the right. Strasburg comes pretty much over the top, and can cover both sides of the plate. His curveball is at least in the neighborhood of Barry Zito's in terms of vertical movement (-8.1 vs -10.1) but Barry's is 10mph slower. How are you supposed to swing at a curveball that bends both space and time, but also has the velocity of Jaime Moyer's fastball?
3) I mentioned this in the Yahoo Fantasy liveblog, so if you see Pianowski eventually writing it in a column I'm going to take full credit, but he works very quickly. He's only 10 seconds between pitches, as long as the batter stays in the same zip code as the box. It's kind of surreal to watch a guy mow down batters, with that velocity, that quickly. You can get up for a drink and the inning will be over by the time you sit down.
4) He's the only player in baseball with a negative xFIP.
5) He seems to stay on the upper half of the strikezone. I don't remember very many low pitches. The curveball, which most guys throw low into the dirt to induce swings and misses, he throws high so that it looks like it's going to sail over the catcher's head, but then drops down for a called strike. His punch-out pitch is the high fastball. The changeup is the only thing that seemed to drop down to batters' knees.
6) The Yahoo liveblog was absurd amounts of fun to read and participate in (I got maybe 50% of my messages posted) and I highly recommend catching the next one, if they make it a regular feature.
7) There's no possible way the Yankees don't throw $300 million at this guy in 2013, unless he pulls a Rick Ankiel on his career. I can't see him staying in Washington for the pricetag he's going to command, and I can't see the Yankees not breaking the bank for a 24 year old RJ-in-his-prime kind of pitcher.
8) Not to jump on the hype bandwagon, but if you're a baseball fan, he's really breathtaking to watch. Maybe the aura will change when he faces better lineups and he has a couple of 5-run games. But until then, he's like nothing else in the league. Not Jimenez, not Josh Johnson, not even Halladay.
1) His official average fastball speed is 97.5, but really he was playing at 99 all night, occasionally touching triple digits. He maintained this speed through all seven innings. He is officially the hardest throwing starting pitcher in baseball, and only Daniel Bard and Joel Zumaya have a higher average amongst relievers. He's tied for eighth in curveball velocity (82.2) and his changeup (90.2) is only 0.8 behind Daniel Bard. His velocity is unlike anything I've ever actually had the pleasure of watching live.
2) Everything he throws has crazy movement. PitchFx data says his horizontal movement ratings are -7.2, 7.4, -8.3 for his three pitches. He doesn't even throw a two-seamer. Needless to say, he makes Ubaldo Jimenez look like Kyle Farnsworth. This is approaching Randy Johnson levels of movement, except Randy threw sidearm and so naturally everything broke to the right. Strasburg comes pretty much over the top, and can cover both sides of the plate. His curveball is at least in the neighborhood of Barry Zito's in terms of vertical movement (-8.1 vs -10.1) but Barry's is 10mph slower. How are you supposed to swing at a curveball that bends both space and time, but also has the velocity of Jaime Moyer's fastball?
3) I mentioned this in the Yahoo Fantasy liveblog, so if you see Pianowski eventually writing it in a column I'm going to take full credit, but he works very quickly. He's only 10 seconds between pitches, as long as the batter stays in the same zip code as the box. It's kind of surreal to watch a guy mow down batters, with that velocity, that quickly. You can get up for a drink and the inning will be over by the time you sit down.
4) He's the only player in baseball with a negative xFIP.
5) He seems to stay on the upper half of the strikezone. I don't remember very many low pitches. The curveball, which most guys throw low into the dirt to induce swings and misses, he throws high so that it looks like it's going to sail over the catcher's head, but then drops down for a called strike. His punch-out pitch is the high fastball. The changeup is the only thing that seemed to drop down to batters' knees.
6) The Yahoo liveblog was absurd amounts of fun to read and participate in (I got maybe 50% of my messages posted) and I highly recommend catching the next one, if they make it a regular feature.
7) There's no possible way the Yankees don't throw $300 million at this guy in 2013, unless he pulls a Rick Ankiel on his career. I can't see him staying in Washington for the pricetag he's going to command, and I can't see the Yankees not breaking the bank for a 24 year old RJ-in-his-prime kind of pitcher.
8) Not to jump on the hype bandwagon, but if you're a baseball fan, he's really breathtaking to watch. Maybe the aura will change when he faces better lineups and he has a couple of 5-run games. But until then, he's like nothing else in the league. Not Jimenez, not Josh Johnson, not even Halladay.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Prospecting
It should be no surprise that, due to most of my drafted pitchers being awful, I have a massive boner for young prospect arms. I drafted one rookie and one guy that hasn't even seen MLB, and mid-season picked up two more rookies, a second year player, and Brandon Morrow might as well be a second-year guy, with only 250 innings on his arm in four seasons. So it's with a mixture of anticipation and shame that I present Brad Lincoln, the Pirates top pitching prospect, who'll see his debut the day after Strasburg's coronation in the PIT-WAS series.
Let's get the ugly out of the way. His career minor league ERA is 3.82, his WHIP 1.21, 6.9 K/9, and he's lost more games than he's won. These are discouraging figures for a "top" minor league prospect.
The upside is that he's been having a decent 2010. 3.16 ERA is a little high, but the 0.99 WHIP is what you'd want to see from a prospect ready to deliver in the majors. Guys like Kris Medlen and Tommy Hanson had sub-1.0 WHIPs and matching ERAs with more strikeouts than room in front of your stadium seat to tape the K's to the wall. Strasburg needs no detailing. Hellickson has those numbers. Holland had those numbers. Brad Lincoln is at least in the neighborhood.
There is, of course, some devil in what details I can scrounge up. Let's compare his 2010 with his 2009 campaign at AAA:
IP: 68.1 61.1
ERA: 3.16 4.70
WHIP: 0.99 1.38
BB/9: 1.8 1.5
HR/9: 0.9 1.0
K/9: 7.2 6.2
This tells one of two stories. Either he had a remarkably unlucky 2009, or a remarkably lucky 2010, since I don't think the extra strikeouts account for that huge difference in ERA and WHIP. Fangraphs says his BABIP in 2009 was .332, a little on the high side. They don't have 2010, and neither does Baseball-Reference.
Personally I think he's probably having a fluky season this year, and despite getting to pitch in the NL central, he's going to get the same rude awakening Charlie Morton got.after his amazing 2008 in the minors and subsequent awful fifteen starts for the Braves, which he then repeated in 2009 (the AAA success and MLB misery) with the Pirates. That doesn't mean I'm not watching with great interest, with Lackey burning a hole in my rate stats.
Let's get the ugly out of the way. His career minor league ERA is 3.82, his WHIP 1.21, 6.9 K/9, and he's lost more games than he's won. These are discouraging figures for a "top" minor league prospect.
The upside is that he's been having a decent 2010. 3.16 ERA is a little high, but the 0.99 WHIP is what you'd want to see from a prospect ready to deliver in the majors. Guys like Kris Medlen and Tommy Hanson had sub-1.0 WHIPs and matching ERAs with more strikeouts than room in front of your stadium seat to tape the K's to the wall. Strasburg needs no detailing. Hellickson has those numbers. Holland had those numbers. Brad Lincoln is at least in the neighborhood.
There is, of course, some devil in what details I can scrounge up. Let's compare his 2010 with his 2009 campaign at AAA:
IP: 68.1 61.1
ERA: 3.16 4.70
WHIP: 0.99 1.38
BB/9: 1.8 1.5
HR/9: 0.9 1.0
K/9: 7.2 6.2
This tells one of two stories. Either he had a remarkably unlucky 2009, or a remarkably lucky 2010, since I don't think the extra strikeouts account for that huge difference in ERA and WHIP. Fangraphs says his BABIP in 2009 was .332, a little on the high side. They don't have 2010, and neither does Baseball-Reference.
Personally I think he's probably having a fluky season this year, and despite getting to pitch in the NL central, he's going to get the same rude awakening Charlie Morton got.after his amazing 2008 in the minors and subsequent awful fifteen starts for the Braves, which he then repeated in 2009 (the AAA success and MLB misery) with the Pirates. That doesn't mean I'm not watching with great interest, with Lackey burning a hole in my rate stats.
Monday, June 7, 2010
I just realized.
Country music videos are fundamentally identical to rap videos. There are cars (tricked out Chevy trucks instead of Bentleys), large houses, alcohol (whiskey vs cristal), and barely-dressed women everywhere. They occur in bars instead of clubs. There is square dancing instead of booty dancing. The universal theme is overcoming adversity and poverty to enjoy a life of comfortable revelry within your racially-based population centers.
This post is brought to you by Stephanie's Toby Keith binge.
Addendum: Kenny Rogers is unwatchable, both because he's awful and when I see him the only thing I can think of is Mad TV's interpretation.
This post is brought to you by Stephanie's Toby Keith binge.
Addendum: Kenny Rogers is unwatchable, both because he's awful and when I see him the only thing I can think of is Mad TV's interpretation.
Adventures in sample sizes.
I dropped a .295/.312 on Joe last week, but managed to win the offensive counting stats. Mark Texeira slugged .179 over that span and struck out what feels like forty seven times. His "slump" is approaching two and a half months in duration.
I watched the entirety of the Morrow-Vazquez duel yesterday. Javy's looked pretty sharp over his past two starts, with 3 earned runs in 14 innings and a ton of strikeouts. He was carrying a no-hitter into the 6th until a 2-run HR broke the standoff. I made sure to take the time to complain to Mike about my missed opportunity to acquire Vazquez, who seems to have rediscovered some of his control. Of his past five starts, only one was bad, and four were fantastic.
Speaking of 14 amazing innings, Brandon Morrow's only given up two runs during that span, and the second run was basically Scott Downs' fault. Eight strikeouts against the Yankees. There was an earlier report after the Tampa victory that his control problems were resolved when he dialed his fastball back to 92mph. I'd like to note that this report is total bullshit. Morrow was averaging 96+ only on his two starts at the end of May. His velocity charts for the past two games are identical to his first six or seven starts when he was walking five dudes a game, averaging 94 but occasionally touching 96-97. I can't seem to derive any relevant PitchFX data to suggest causes for the recent improvement, but I will note that despite the 5.48 ERA, his xFIP is only 4.01. If it's just a matter of bad luck that he's now beyond, it could mean I finally have something to reliably replace Lackey.
Because Scherzer isn't reliable. 14 strikeouts against A's, only 3 against the Royals with 5 ER. I don't know what his deal is.
After eight games, Buster Posey is .433/.452/.567. What does this mean? Nothing, but now I don't know what to do about Carlos Santana's impending call-up. Santana theoretically has more power and better contact, but he doesn't have the play time guarantee that Posey does, and he doesn't have eight sparkling MLB games to compare against Posey.
I watched the entirety of the Morrow-Vazquez duel yesterday. Javy's looked pretty sharp over his past two starts, with 3 earned runs in 14 innings and a ton of strikeouts. He was carrying a no-hitter into the 6th until a 2-run HR broke the standoff. I made sure to take the time to complain to Mike about my missed opportunity to acquire Vazquez, who seems to have rediscovered some of his control. Of his past five starts, only one was bad, and four were fantastic.
Speaking of 14 amazing innings, Brandon Morrow's only given up two runs during that span, and the second run was basically Scott Downs' fault. Eight strikeouts against the Yankees. There was an earlier report after the Tampa victory that his control problems were resolved when he dialed his fastball back to 92mph. I'd like to note that this report is total bullshit. Morrow was averaging 96+ only on his two starts at the end of May. His velocity charts for the past two games are identical to his first six or seven starts when he was walking five dudes a game, averaging 94 but occasionally touching 96-97. I can't seem to derive any relevant PitchFX data to suggest causes for the recent improvement, but I will note that despite the 5.48 ERA, his xFIP is only 4.01. If it's just a matter of bad luck that he's now beyond, it could mean I finally have something to reliably replace Lackey.
Because Scherzer isn't reliable. 14 strikeouts against A's, only 3 against the Royals with 5 ER. I don't know what his deal is.
After eight games, Buster Posey is .433/.452/.567. What does this mean? Nothing, but now I don't know what to do about Carlos Santana's impending call-up. Santana theoretically has more power and better contact, but he doesn't have the play time guarantee that Posey does, and he doesn't have eight sparkling MLB games to compare against Posey.
Friday, June 4, 2010
Quick thought.
The situation in Gaza, the blockade and Israeli military strikes on factories and farms, the arbitrary restriction on the type and volume of humanitarian aid that's allowed to flow through the checkpoints, is at least as dire a humanitarian and political crisis as North Korea, and is more pressing than Iran's Green Revolution. Now that I've done more research into the situation, it physically sickens me that my country approves of and enables Israel's behavior.
It's not about whether Israel has a right to permanency, or even borders and state solutions, or border lines and settlements. It's now about the systematic starvation and subjugation of 1.5 million people in a political limbo perpetuated by American clout and arms deals.
It's not about whether Israel has a right to permanency, or even borders and state solutions, or border lines and settlements. It's now about the systematic starvation and subjugation of 1.5 million people in a political limbo perpetuated by American clout and arms deals.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
On the selective nature of instant replay
There's really nothing left to say about last night's Tigers game. The call was bad. I watched it live and I knew before even seeing the replay. Galarraga knew, hence the grin. This isn't what I want to talk about.
A bad call also gifted the Mariners a win in the 9th inning of a 1-1 game. The full speed replay is fractionally closer than the Galarraga call, but slow-mo inspection and still photos clearly indicate that the runner was out, which would have ended the inning. Instead a run scored, Twins lose, because an umpire made a bad call. This also isn't what I want to talk about.
Baseball instituted a restricted form of instant replay in the summer of 2008, after a sequence of increasingly dodgy and incorrect home run calls. It's only used to determine home runs, whether they clear the fence, whether it was fair or foul, and whether the ball was interfered with by a fan. That's it. Base calls, balls and strikes, balks and errors are still handled solely by human beings. This follows similar setups to basketball, which only reviews buzzer-beater baskets, and football's arcane list of reviewable infractions. The concept that some decisions can be reviewed and some not is rather firmly enshrined in professional sports.
However, there's an inconsistency here. Basketball doesn't want to review foul calls because these are largely judgments that don't translate well to slow-motion. Incidental contact happens. Football's happy to use replay for precision measurements (in or out of bounds, ball placement) but again they don't want to be in the business of adjudicating interference and holding calls after the fact. These are decisions that are largely interpretive and require the context of the moment for trained officials to determine whether a jersey grab is infractionary enough to draw a flag.
Baseball's safe-or-out baserunning calls are not interpretive. There's no wiggle room. You beat the ball to the bag or you didn't. TV networks have been doing slow motion reviews of base calls for decades. This is precisely the kind of situation where instant replay is appropriate. It's not about an inch or two on the strikezone, or about a batter's intent to swing, or a pitcher's movement towards home plate. Did the foot hit the bag before the ball hit the glove. It's a yes/no answer. There's no room for interpretation.
It's mindboggling that MLB doesn't have replay for this. I understand that they're resistant to digital encroachments into the mystical strike zone, but we now have a situation where, in one night, umpires changed the outcome of a game in one situation, and changed baseball history with another, because the league is too proud to be accurate.
A bad call also gifted the Mariners a win in the 9th inning of a 1-1 game. The full speed replay is fractionally closer than the Galarraga call, but slow-mo inspection and still photos clearly indicate that the runner was out, which would have ended the inning. Instead a run scored, Twins lose, because an umpire made a bad call. This also isn't what I want to talk about.
Baseball instituted a restricted form of instant replay in the summer of 2008, after a sequence of increasingly dodgy and incorrect home run calls. It's only used to determine home runs, whether they clear the fence, whether it was fair or foul, and whether the ball was interfered with by a fan. That's it. Base calls, balls and strikes, balks and errors are still handled solely by human beings. This follows similar setups to basketball, which only reviews buzzer-beater baskets, and football's arcane list of reviewable infractions. The concept that some decisions can be reviewed and some not is rather firmly enshrined in professional sports.
However, there's an inconsistency here. Basketball doesn't want to review foul calls because these are largely judgments that don't translate well to slow-motion. Incidental contact happens. Football's happy to use replay for precision measurements (in or out of bounds, ball placement) but again they don't want to be in the business of adjudicating interference and holding calls after the fact. These are decisions that are largely interpretive and require the context of the moment for trained officials to determine whether a jersey grab is infractionary enough to draw a flag.
Baseball's safe-or-out baserunning calls are not interpretive. There's no wiggle room. You beat the ball to the bag or you didn't. TV networks have been doing slow motion reviews of base calls for decades. This is precisely the kind of situation where instant replay is appropriate. It's not about an inch or two on the strikezone, or about a batter's intent to swing, or a pitcher's movement towards home plate. Did the foot hit the bag before the ball hit the glove. It's a yes/no answer. There's no room for interpretation.
It's mindboggling that MLB doesn't have replay for this. I understand that they're resistant to digital encroachments into the mystical strike zone, but we now have a situation where, in one night, umpires changed the outcome of a game in one situation, and changed baseball history with another, because the league is too proud to be accurate.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
The Fantastic Four, update 2
Since the last visit..
Mike Leake: 13.1 IP, 17 hits, 4 walks, 1 ER, 6 K, no decisions.
John Ely: 13.1 IP, 12 hits, 3 walks, 3 ER, 7 K, win, loss.
Kris Medlen: 11.2 IP, 16 hits, 4 walks, 5 ER, 6 K, win.
Jason Vargas: 5 IP, 7 hits, 2 walks, 2 ER, 5 K, no decision.
Still four winners. Who will blow up first? Vargas has the Twins tonight, and that's my wager. Medlen @LAD is slightly safer. Ely vs Ari and Leake @Was will probably be pretty good games. I know the Diamondbacks aren't scoring well lately (Averaging 2.6 runs per game since the 23rd. Stephen Drew, hitless in four games...fucking Drews) and the Nationals are in the lower half of the league's offensive categories.
Mike Leake: 13.1 IP, 17 hits, 4 walks, 1 ER, 6 K, no decisions.
John Ely: 13.1 IP, 12 hits, 3 walks, 3 ER, 7 K, win, loss.
Kris Medlen: 11.2 IP, 16 hits, 4 walks, 5 ER, 6 K, win.
Jason Vargas: 5 IP, 7 hits, 2 walks, 2 ER, 5 K, no decision.
Still four winners. Who will blow up first? Vargas has the Twins tonight, and that's my wager. Medlen @LAD is slightly safer. Ely vs Ari and Leake @Was will probably be pretty good games. I know the Diamondbacks aren't scoring well lately (Averaging 2.6 runs per game since the 23rd. Stephen Drew, hitless in four games...fucking Drews) and the Nationals are in the lower half of the league's offensive categories.
I'm just saying...
Chipper Jones since last Wednesday: 8/20, 5 walks, 4 runs, 8 RBI, a homerun and a stolen base.
Carlos Lee since last Wednesday: 7/22, 2 runs, 4 RBI, 3 doubles.
Brandon Phillips's 4-day weekend: 10/20, 4 runs, 3 RBI, a homerun and a walk.
Just putting that out there.
Carlos Lee since last Wednesday: 7/22, 2 runs, 4 RBI, 3 doubles.
Brandon Phillips's 4-day weekend: 10/20, 4 runs, 3 RBI, a homerun and a walk.
Just putting that out there.
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