Friday, December 24, 2010

HD555 foam mod

I decided to use some of my incoming holiday money on a new set of headphones, now that the ear cushioning on my HD485 has completely worn away.  I agonized for a long while on whether or not I needed to spend the money, considering the 485 still sounded great, and was simply uncomfortable to wear.  During that period, I naturally missed an Amazon lightning sale of the HD595 for $95.  So I ended up buying the HD555 (Sennheiser has earned my brand loyalty) at the same price.  According to design specs, it's basically the same headphones with marginally less frequency response, and since I'm not an audiophile this seemed acceptible.

Well, they arrived today.  I understand that most high-end headphones have a burn-in phase, but I was dissatisfied with the bass.  This is perhaps a result of having proper ear cushioning so the driver isn't sticking directly into my ear canal, but the sound seemed rather dead on the low end.  My 485 shakes my skull, and as with most forms of change, I was unhappy.

Some google searching later, seeking validation for my grievances, I discovered that somebody in the world of headphone hobbyism had devised a quick-and-easy mod to transform the 555 into a 595.  Apparently the audio drivers on both models are identical, and the cause of the 555's restricted response range is because Sennheiser glued a strip of high-density foam onto the mesh behind the driver.  Supposedly, this foam deadens the bass and inhibits incoming airflow, which fucks up the "soundstage" (the positional framing of sound, i.e. whether the origin seems like it's inside your head or positionally outside your ears) and doesn't let sound "develop" like sound waves are a fine aged French wine.

I watched a how-to on Youtube.  Thanks to the HD5-- series' modular design, every component of the headphone is removable and replaceable.  It was a simple procedure of prying off the foam cushion ring, then the inner mesh shield, unscrewing three screws, and lifting the driver assembly to reveal the interior side of the exterior mesh shell.  And sure fucking enough, a giant foam strip, 1"x2", was sitting right there covering maybe 60% of the available intake holes.  I peeled them off and reassembled both cups, and fired up some Pandora to test the difference.

NIGHT
AND
DAY

Holy shit, they sounded amazing.  The bass was hugely improved.  There's a little more leakage, since these are open headphones and you can hear from the exterior, but that's a small price to pay for performance.  I wanted to be shocked that Sennheiser is intentionally retarding their midrange model and jacking the price on the higher end of the series, but this is a standard practice for certain models of multicore CPUs too.

If my dad is to be believed, my sister is getting me the 595s for Christmas anyway, so I guess I'll be able to make a direct comparison in the near future.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

DPR: The Ranger

AKA "Archer with a gimped druid companion"


Jen'Eric Forestdweller
Ranger 6
Race: Human

25 points:
10->17 (13)
10->16 (10)
10->12 (2)

Str: 16
Dex: 22 (17 + 2 human + 1 level bonus + 2 Belt of Dex)
Con: 12
Int: 10
Wis: 10
Cha: 10

Feats:
H1 Weapon Focus: Longbow
L1 Point Blank Shot
R2 Deadly Aim
L3 Rapid Shot  
L5 Precise Shot
R6 Manyshot

Traits:
Killer (+3 damage on crit)
Heirloom Weapon (+1 hit)

Gear: (16000)
Belt of Dexterity +2 (4000)
Heirloom Composite Longbow +2 (+3 Str rating) (8700)
Mithral Brigandine +1 (2250)
1050gp

To Hit (assuming within 30ft):
+6 BAB
+6 Dex
+1 Weapon Focus
+1 point blank
+2 magical longbow
+1 heirloom longbow
-2 deadly aim
-2 rapid shot
= 13 (+1 or +2 conditionally for favored enemy)

Damage:
+3 str
+2 magical longbow
+1 point blank
+4 deadly aim
= 10 (+1 or +2 conditionally for favored enemy)

Math(normal):

+13 @ 2d8+20:  .65(29) + .05(.70(61) + .30(29)) = 21.42
+13 @ 1d8+10:  .65(14.5) + .05(.70(46.5) + .30(14.5)) = 11.27
+8 @ 1d8+10:  .40(14.5) + .05(.45(46.5) + .55(14.5)) = 7.245 == 39.935 DPR

Math(+2 favored):

+15 @ 2d8+24: .75(33) + .05(.80(69) + .20(33)) = 27.84
+15 @ 1d8+12: .75(16.5) + .05(.80(52.5) + .20(16.5)) = 14.64
+10 @ 1d8+12: .50(16.5) + .05(.55(52.5) + .45(16.5)) = 10.065 == 52.545 DPR

Pet (Badger?):

Hit = 2 BAB + 4 dex (+ 1 magic fang on bite) -1 pirahna strike == +5 (6)
Damage = 2 pirahna strike + 2 rage = 4
Feats:  Weapon Finesse, Pirahna Strike

+6 @ 1d4+5 = .3(7.5) + .05(.35(15) + .65(7.5)) = 2.75625
+5 @ 1d3+4 = .25(6) + .05(.3(12) + .7(6)) = 1.89
+5 @ 1d3+4 = .25(6) + .05(.3(12) + .7(6)) = 1.89 == 6.53625

With favored:

+8 @ 1d4+7 = .4(9.5) + .05(.45(19) + .55(9.5)) = 4.48875
+7 @ 1d3+6 = .35(8) + .05(.4(16) + .6(8)) = 3.36
+7 @ 1d3+6 = .35(8) + .05(.4(16) + .6(8)) = 3.36 == 11.20875

Total combined DPR:
Normal:  46.47125
Favored: 63.75375

Not bad overall numbers considering the class design doesn't favor 6th level very well, missing out on most buff spells and the upgraded animal companions (which they start getting at 7th, since they're perpetually at Druid -3).  It'd be interesting to see whether the ranger spells, favored enemy, and better pets overtakes fighter/archer feat and class-buff accumulation at higher levels, but I don't feel like making 10-15th level characters.  It's worthwhile to note that at 6th level, in this build, the ranger doesn't get the shoot-without-provoking-AoO feat.  Going Ranger5/Fighter1 doesn't help because you'd miss the combat style feat at Ranger 6.

Going to start thinking about viable multiclass combinations, but I'm not sure how many there are at 6th level that can beat existing single class builds.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Humble Bundle 2

Buy it now.  Hopefully they'll also eventually release a Steam activation code like they just did for the first bundle.

Cleric feats pt2

Channel feats:  If I were to head down a more offensive style of cleric play, the channel feats could be selectively useful.  I don't know how often we're going to encounter "outsiders" but demons seem to be the central bad entity of the campaign, and having a 30ft 3d6 burst at DC 19 seven times a day (that ignores allies) could come in handy.  Or it could be completely useless against every other monster in the book.

Item Creation:  This is kind of a gamble.  Sixth level is just enough to start pumping out +2 equipment and useful healing potions, but it assumes that +2 gear will be difficult to find as we head into E6 endgame.  There's a point at which equipment accumulation will become meaningless, making the gear crafting feats irrelevant after a while.  Potions/scrolls/wands will be nice, especially considering the limited spell slots and only one healer, but also kind of pidgeonholes the character as a fountain of healing, which might become tiresome.

I suspect that, given our party composition, I'll end up going with some combination of AC feats and embracing the role of front-line distraction.  I guess we'll have to see how sparing Chris is with the magic loot, or how many demonic/undead minions we fight.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Norben's progression path

Owen commented at our last D&D gathering (roughly paraphrasing): "We need to find a way to make Norben better in melee."  Thanks to a party heavy on ranged combat and light armor, my cleric has become something of a frontline defender and primary AC sponge.  I've been thinking about feat progression on the way towards the E6 endgame feat accumulation stage, whether to focus on offensive, defensive, or spellcasting options.  Here are the obvious primary choices:

Offensive:
Power Attack
Cleave + Great Cleave
Weapon Focus

Defensive:
Heavy Armor Proficiency
Toughness
Combat Expertise
Shield Focus
Saving Shield
Tower Shield Proficiency

Spellcasting:
Alignment Channel
Improved Channel
Turn Undead
Brew Potion
Craft Arms & Armor
Craft Wondrous Item
Scribe Scroll
Craft Wand

There are five major strategies here, or paths of improvement:  Melee buffing, armor/HP, shield buffing, channel buffing, and item creation.  Let's dig a little deeper into, say, a three-feat set:

Melee buffing:  By the time we get three feats we'll be well into level 6, so I think I can make the same assumptions here that I made in my other 6th level class optimizations.  This trio of feats results in a sum of -1 hit and +4 damage on all attacks, and cleaving whenever possible because cleric6 doesn't have a second base attack to worry about losing.

To hit:
+4 BAB
+4 Str (Bull's Strength from 14 to 18)
-2 power attack
+2 weapon
+1 weapon focus
+2 luck (divine favor)
+1 morale (bless)
= 12

Damage:
+4 str
+4 power attack
+2 weapon
+2 luck (divine favor)
= 12

Heavy Mace +12 @ 1d8+12 vs. AC20:  .60(16.5) + .05(.65(33) + .35(16.5)) = 11.26125 DPR
Without those feats:  +13 @ 1d8+8:  .65(12.5) + .05(.70(25) + .30(12.5)) = 9.1875 DPR

Three feats for 2 DPR doesn't seem like a great tradeoff, though it doesn't factor cleave.  If there's an adjacent enemy it becomes 11.26125*1.65 = 18.5810625

Armor/HP:  Let's go full cheese and assume Mithral Fullplate +2.

AC:
10 base
11 armor
2 dex (cat's grace)
3 deflection (shield of faith)
2 dodge (combat reflexes)
4 shield (+2 large shield)
= 32 after making an attack action, 30 otherwise.  Plus 6 bonus HP.

Without feats:
10 base
8 armor (breastplate +2, restricted to medium)
2 dex
3 deflection
4 Shield
= 27.  3-5 AC and a level's worth of HP is kinda big.

Shields:  Kind of boned from some of the more fun shield feats by only having a 10 dex.

AC:
10 base
8 armor
2 dex
3 deflection
7 shield
= 30, and can grant an adjacent ally +2 shield AC as an immediate action.

Armor/Shield hybrid?:  Heavy armor prof, tower shield proficiency, shield focus

AC:
10 base
11 armor
2 dex
3 deflection
7 shield
= 33 at all times, which is +6 AC versus going melee/spell/item routes.  Anyway, approaching 5pm, time to wrap up some work-related things.  Will investigate other feats tomorrow.

Friday, December 10, 2010

A good read:

The Worst Bathroom in New York City

Whenever I bitch to myself about absurd rent prices in Westchester, or my occasionally inconsiderate redneck landlord, I have to remind myself that it could be far, far worse.

Friday, December 3, 2010

More DPR stuff: Druid

Name: Katrina Wumaan
Class: Druid 6
Race: Human

Base Stats:
10 -> 17 (13)
10 -> 16 (10)
10 -> 12 (2)

Str: 20 (17 + 1 level + 2 race)
Dex: 12
Con: 10
Int: 10
Wis: 16
Cha: 10

Animal Form:
Str: 24 (+4)
Dex: 10 (-2)
Con: 10
Int: 10
Wis: 16
Cha: 10


Class Powers:
-Wild Shape: Dire Tiger form:
   +4 str, -2 dex, +4 natural armor
   2 claws at 2d4, 1 bite at 2d6 (you don't get rake until 8th level)
   Pounce and grab special abilities
-Large Ape companion (Tiger's a better option at 7th, but not at 6th)
-A bunch of druidic shit that has no bearing on DPR but is nice for RP

Feats:
H1 Power Attack
L1 Weapon Focus (claw)
L3 Weapon Focus (bite)
L5 Improved Natural Attack (claw to 2d6, delayed until L6)

Natural Spell is a better overall feat selection than the second WF, but for these testing purposes it wouldn't really apply.

Traits:
Killer (+ 2 damage on crit)
Anatomist (+1 to confirm criticals)

Gear:
Ring of Protection +2 (5000)
Amulet of Mighty Fists  (5000, flaming)
Armor:  Irrelevant.  Wild armor requires a total +4 enchantment, which is 16000 gp alone, which is unobtainable under level 6 wealth guidelines when you include the cost of the base armor and masterworking itself.  Even considering a post-L6 campaign, it seems unreasonable for a DM to start dropping +4 equipment.  If it were possible, he could wear hide +1, or even full plate +1 if ironwood is available (doubtful since it's a 6th level druid spell, which is theoretically impossible in E6, but you never know.)  Also, as per Transmutation school rules, bracers of armor don't work in polymorph effects.
6000 gold to blow on minor stuff...cloak of resistance, con item, etc.

Buffs:
Bull's Strength (+4 strength)
Greater Magic Fang (+1 enhancement on all natural weapons)
Barkskin (+3 natural armor)
Bristle (-2 natural armor, +2 damage)
Natural Rhythm (cumulative damage bonus)
Cat's Grace (+4 dex)
To hit:
+4 BAB
+9 strength (28 = 20 + 4 animal form +4 Bull's Strength)
+1 weapon focus
+1 Greater Magic Fang
+2 charge
-1 size
= 16

Weapon damage:
+9 strength
+1 GMF
+2 bristle
= 12

Secondary damage:
+1d6 flaming
+potential natural rhythm bonus
+4 power attack (-2 hit)

Animal Companion Ape:
Str 24
Dex 17
Con 14
Feats: Improved Natural Attack (claw), Weapon Focus (claw), Power Attack
AC:  18 = 10 + 3 dex + 6 natural -1 size
Hit: 11 = +4 BAB +7 str -1 size + 1 WF
Damage: 11 = 7 str + 4 power attack
Rough check:  .1(d/x + 1) = .1(11.5/4 + 1) = .3875, so power attack should safely be the way to go here

Math against AC 20:  The fairest calculation seems to be to include charge, which is easy, and animal companion (unbuffed), but ignore other potential situational damage sources like having a flaming sphere out, or other summoned creatures, and ignore flanking.  This kind of balances out including druid buffs, which never got factored into the barbarian or fighter mechanics.

Full round attack (charge):
+16 claw (2d6+1d6+12): .80*(22.5) + .05(.90(43.5) + .10(22.5)) = 20.07
+16 claw (2d6+1d6+12): .80*(22.5) + .05(.90(43.5) + .10(22.5)) + .85(1) = 20.92
+16 bite (2d6+1d6+12): .80*(22.5) + .05(.90(43.5) + .10(22.5)) + .7225(2) + .15(.85(1)) = 21.6425 = 62.6325

Full round attack (charge + power attack):
+14 claw (2d6+1d6+16): .70*(26.5) + .05(.80(51.5) + .20(26.5)) = 20.875
+14 claw (2d6+1d6+16): .70*(26.5) + .05(.80(51.5) + .20(26.5)) + .75(1) = 21.625
+14 bite (2d6+1d6+16): .70*(26.5) + .05(.80(51.5) + .20(26.5)) + .5625(2) + .25(.75(1)) = 22.1875 = 64.6875

Ape full round attack (power attack):
+11 claw (1d8+11): .55*(15.5) + .05(.60(31) + .40(15.5)) = 9.765
+11 claw (1d8+11): .55*(15.5) + .05(.60(31) + .40(15.5)) = 9.765
+10 bite  (1d6+11): .50*(14.5) + .05(.55(29) + .45(14.5)) = 8.37375 = 27.90375

Total normal DPR: 92.59125
 
Damn.  Let's do an AC calc to see if this is a reasonable PC:
 
10 base
2 dex (from cat's grace)
4 natural armor (wild shape)
3 natural armor enhancement (barkskin)
2 deflection
-2 bristle
-2 charge
-1 size
= 16, which is poor but can be adjusted to 20 with some minor DPR hits, which is ok because this build is already 40 DPR ahead of the barbarian and archer.
 
Keeping a flaming sphere active is very possible with this build since you can use the move action on the sphere but still get your full attacks via charge-pounce.  Buffing the companion would also be pretty easy.  And summon nature's ally 3.  Holy fuck.
 
Full round attack (power attack, no charge or bristle, AC 20)
+12 claw (2d6+1d6+14):  .60*(24.5) + .05(.70(47.5) + .30(24.5)) = 16.73
+12 claw (2d6+1d6+14): .60*(24.5) + .05(.70(47.5) + .30(24.5)) + .65(1) = 17.38
+12 claw (2d6+1d6+14): .60*(24.5) + .05(.70(47.5) + .30(24.5)) + .4225(2) + .35(.65(1)) = 17.8025 = 51.9125 ====> 79.81625

Too bad about the lack of armor, but this is still pretty good.  This build gets much better at 8th level when animal form gives you two more rake attacks on pounce (which don't forget works with grab-grapple too) and you qualify for the upgraded cat companions which can do the same charge-pounce-rake cheese.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

On Borderlands Weaponry

This post is designed to fill the 9-10:30am gap in what's usually my normal morning work and internet routine, which today was sorted through in approximately thirteen minutes.

Having reached the level cap with my hunter in Borderlands, and now having access to two mass-farming locations, I'm left with some interesting equipment decisions.  Here's my current inventory, with some mild errors since I'm doing this from memory:

1) Combustion Hellfire (smg), level 48, 162 damage, 85 accuracy, 10.5 RoF, 55 clip, x4 fire
2) Explosive Equalizer (revolver), level 67, 402 damage, 88 accuracy, 1.6 RoF, 2 clip, x2 explosive, 3.5x scope, +24 ammo regen
3) Brutal Masher (revolver), level 65, 382x7 damage, 88 accuracy, 1.3 RoF, 2 clip, 3.2x scope
4) Pestilent Defiler (revolver), level 52, 702 damage, 92 accuracy, 1.9 RoF, 6 clip, x4 corrosive

The masher is basically a 1-handed shotgun with more damage and better accuracy, and utilizes the hunter's pistol skills.  I got my first masher in Armory PT1 at level 38 and used it straight through level 60, it's that good, and I never saw another one until last night.  At first glance it's everything I could have wanted out of the first one; triple nominal damage and a scope.  However, I've learned that the gameplay during the later levels is so different that this masher just doesn't work.

In playthrough 1, enemies took their sweet time lining up shots, took 3-shot bursts, then retreated to gather their nerves.  This permitted ample time to zoom into the scope and line up perfect headshots.  In playthrough 2, and specifically at max level and in the later DLC, they shoot from the hip with perfect accuracy, fire off twenty rounds, and stop only long enough to reload before draining your shield from across the map.  Lining up a headshot is virtually impossible.  Every grazing shot you receive knocks off your aim, and by the time it settles back, you're hit again.  In the half-second window you have when you're miraculously not being shot, enemies are strafing and dodging, and you still can't scope them.

This means the only reliable headshot is to similarly shoot from the hip, unzoomed, with wild abandon.  Which is basically impossible with a 2-shot revolver.  It takes me two shots to dial in the aiming precision to get the reticule perfectly on a moving target's head.  In a 6-shooter like the Defiler this gives me four devastating criticals.  In a 2-shooter like the masher and equalizer, it means I have to reload, and when I'm ready to shoot again I have to restart the whole aiming procedure.  It just doesn't work.

This means the Defiler is my go-to weapon at virtually all times.  The 6 shots and high rate of fire means headshot spam is relatively easy, and the lack of scope is irrelevant.  The Defiler, as a special weapon, also does bonus instant damage against armored enemies (like everything in DLC3 and most things in DLC4), extra corrosive proc damage (at x4), and can spread to nearby enemies if they're close enough to each other.  It's pretty much the perfect endgame gun, except for the occasional corrosive-resistant enemy, at which point it's either painful and slow going with the other revolvers, or whipping out the SMG for fire damage.  (The Hellfire is pretty much exclusively for Badass Chemical Lancers.)

So the Defiler is locked in, but what about the other revolvers?  I have a wide assortment of non-explosive equalizers in the bank, but they're all 2-shooters.  This masher is only the second one I've seen all game.  If I could find another scopeless 6-shot masher equalizer like in PT1, that'd be perfect, but I suspect the combination of random rolls necessary to get 1) the orange weapon with 2) the equalizer tag and 3) a masher accessory on it was a once-in-a-gaming-lifetime event.

In the end, I'll settle for whatever equalizer and x2 elemental revolvers I can find with 6-shots and a preferably 1.9 RoF.  Anything less will leave me continuing to farm new guns.

Which I'll probably continue to do, despite the library of new games I've purchased during Steam's Thanksgiving sale.  I've beaten VVVVVV and And Yet It Moves, which were both fantastic puzzle platformers, but thanks to the stage-based nature of those games it was easy to pick up for only twenty minutes at a time.  The save-anywhere feature in Borderlands made it just as easily pick-up-able.  The other acquisitions I want to try (Torchlight, Jolly Roger, Recettear) strike me as requiring longer gaming sessions and more focus, and that's been difficult to get lately.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

An attempt at a Barbarian

Name: Meee Angor
Race: Half Orc
Class: Barbarian

Stats:
10 -> 17 (13)
10 -> 16 (10)
10 -> 12 (2)

Str: 22 (17 + 1 level + 2 race + 2 item)
Dex: 12
Con: 16
Int: 10
Wis: 10
Cha: 10

Class Powers:
Rage (+2 hit, +2 damage)
Animal Fury (bite attack at -5 hit, 1d4 + half strength)
Lesser Fiend Totem (gore attack at -5 hit, 1d8 + half strength)
+1 other defensive power

Feats:
L1 Power Attack (-2 hit, +6 damage)
L3 Weapon Focus: Greataxe or Falchion (+1 hit)
L5 Furious Focus (ignore power attack penalty on main attack)

Traits:
Killer (+ damage on crit)
Heirloom Weapon (+1 hit)

Gear:
+2 strength item (4000)
+2 weapon (8000)
Some +1 armor

To hit:
+6 BAB
+6 Str
+2 rage
-2 power attack (except on the first attack)
+1 heirloom
+1 weapon focus
+2 magic weapon = +18/+11/+7/+7

Weapon damage:
+9 str
+3 rage
+6 power attack
+2 magic weapon = +20 (plus conditional crit damage)

Secondary damage:
+3 str
+1 rage
+2 power attack = +6 (plus conditional crit damage)

Math against AC 20:

Full round attack (power attack):
Greataxe:
+18 (1d12+20) = .90*26.5 + .05*(.95*82.5 + .05*26.5) = 27.835
+11 (1d12+20) = .55*26.5 + .05*(.60*82.5 + .40*26.5) = 17.58
+7 (1d8+6) = .35*10.5 + .05*(.40*23 + .60*10.5) = 4.45
+7 (1d4+6) = .35*8.5 + .05*(.40*19 + .60*8.5) = 3.61 == 53.475 DPR

Falchion:
+18 (2d4+20) = .80*25 + .15*(.95*52 + .05*25) = 27.5975
+11 (2d4+20) = .45*25 + .15*(.60*52 + .40*25) = 17.43
+7 (1d8+6) = .35*10.5 + .05*(.40*23 + .60*10.5) = 4.45

+7 (1d4+6) = .35*8.5 + .05*(.40*19 + .60*8.5) = 3.61 == 53.0875 DPR

Surprised at how close the two weapons are, though this could change at slightly higher levels with different feats and abilities.  Anyway, 5pm time.

Oops

Having slept on the concept, I'm suddenly reminded that this is basically 3.5 rules, and you still have to do dumb arcane shit like confirm critical hits, which for the sake of accuracy requires adjusting my calculations.

Full round attack (deadly aim + rapid shot):

+14 (2d8+26) = .70*35 + .05*(.75*73 + .25*35) = 27.675
+14 (1d8+13) = .70*17.5 + .05*(.75*55.5 + .25*17.5)  = 14.55
+9 (1d8+13) = .45*17.5 + .05*(.50*55.5 + .50*17.5) = 9.7 == 51.925 DPR


I don't think I've missed anything else in terms of just an expected DPR calculation versus a generic AC 20 in point blank range without any other modifiers or buffs.  (Excepting the loss of opportunity attack damage, but that's way too situational to guesstimate.)

Late edit:  Manyshot doesn't allow crits on both arrows, DPR adjusted down.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Experiment 1: Archer

Bored at work, limited web access.  I mentioned last night to Mike that there seemed to be way more optimization tweaks for ranged combat than melee, so I'm going to attempt to build the most twinked-out ranged and melee characters I can because 1) I'm bored and 2) it'll help familiarize me with the mechanics of Pathfinder, the gritty combat details of which I didn't dig too deeply into while building a cleric focused on healing and social skills.  Going to limit this to 6th level (sticking with E6 guidelines) and only material available on the SRD, going by the same character creation guidelines used for Norben (25 point buy, level average wealth, two traits).

Shooty McShooterson
Fighter 6, Archer subtype
Race: Human

25 points:
10->17 (13)
10->16 (10)
10->12 (2)


Str:  16
Dex: 22 (17 + 2 human + 1 level bonus + 2 Belt of Dex)
Con:  12
Int: 10
Wis: 10
Cha: 10

AC:
Not like it matters, but:
+10 base
+5 armor
+1 armor enhancement
+6 dex
= 22

Feats:
H1  Weapon Focus: Longbow 
L1  Point Blank Shot
F1  Deadly Aim
F2  Rapid Shot
L3  Point Blank Master
F4  Weapon Specialization: Longbow 
L5  Precise Shot
F6  Manyshot

Traits:
Killer (+3 damage on crit)
Heirloom Weapon (+1 hit)

Gear: (16000)
Belt of Dexterity +2 (4000)
Heirloom Composite Longbow +2 (+3 Str rating) (8700)
Mithral Brigandine +1 (2250)
1050gp

To Hit (assuming within 30ft):
+6 BAB
+6 Dex
+1 Archer
+1 Weapon Focus
+1 point blank
+2 magical longbow
+1 heirloom longbow = +18

Damage:
+3 str
+2 magical longbow
+1 Archer
+1 point blank
+2 Weapon Spec = +9

Conditionals: 
Deadly Aim: -2 hit, +4 damage on all attacks
Rapid Shot: -2 hit, extra attack

I don't know what the average monster AC is supposed to be for level 6 parties (and I can't find it in the SRD) but skimming the CR6 monsters, let's go with about AC 20.

Full round attack (normal):
+18 (2d8+18) = .90*27 + .05*84 = 28.5
+13 (1d8+9) = .65*13.5 + .05*43.5 = 10.95 == 39.45 DPR

Full round attack (deadly aim):
+16 (2d8+26) = .80*35 + .05*108 = 33.4
+11 (1d8+13) =  .55*17.5 + .05*55.5 = 12.4 == 45.8 DPR

Full round attack (rapid shot):
+16 (2d8+18) = .80*27 + .05*84 = 25.8
+16 (1d8+9) = .80*13.5 + .05*43.5 = 12.975
+11 (1d8+9) = .55*13.5 + .05*43.5 = 9.6 == 48.375 DPR

Full round attack (deadly aim + rapid shot):
+14 (2d8+26) = .70*35 + .05*108 = 29.9
+14 (1d8+13) = .70*17.5 + .05*55.5 = 15.025
+9 (1d8+13) = .45*17.5 + .05*55.5 = 10.65 == 55.575 DPR

I want to stress test the matrix in a spreadsheet (which astoundingly I can't access here...no Google docs, no Office, no nothing) but I think that for the max DPR rotation with everything turned on, trading away +hit for more +damage won't pay off, especially not on the 1-for-1 basis I'd get from going to a strength item or going strength heavy at the initial stat allocation.

Anyway, here's a quick crack the ranged character, and 55 DPR seems like a good number.  Plus, he has some other useful benefits, like being able to shoot without provoking AoOs and having a ranged disarm/sunder.  Anyway, it's 5pm, going home.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

WAT

The Pandora artist bio for Bonobo is incomprehensible.  The song (Black Sands) is nice, though.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Traits

I had initially dismissed Pathfinder's traits system (IIRC introduced in the Advanced Players Guide, but it's in the online SRD) as typical splat content, bonuses for the sake of having extra stuff, kind of like the regional feats of various 3.5 campaign settings. 

When considering Norben's creation, I discovered that selecting skills helped me plot out some character background and flavor.  I didn't really formulate a firm concept of his silver-tongue nature until I pondered including Bluff in his skill list.  Similarly, choosing not to throw ranks into Appraise helped me flesh out some details of his hucksterism: The true price of trinket-ish goods are wholly irrelevant to his pursuits and merchant operations.  In this sense, walking through the numbers of character creation became beneficial to the creative process of developing a complex character personality and motivations.

And now I'm having a similar experience with the traits system.  Reading through it more thoroughly, I think it can provide some flavor benefit to the character creation process without influencing game mechanics too heavily.  The flavor text of the traits are hit and miss, but I like the following for Norben, if we end up using them:

Under Siege:  In order to maintain your devotion to sun goddess in a hostile kingdom and stay alive, you and your fellow worshipers developed a complex system of hand signs and facial gestures to identify yourselves as faithful in the Cult of the Sun Goddess.


Benefit: You gain a +1 trait bonus on Bluff and Sense Motive checks. One of these skills (your choice) is always a class skill for you.


Power of Suggestion: People trust your words over their own eyes.
 
Benefit: You may make a Bluff check to make observers believe that an object in your possession is actually a different object entirely. The DC for the check is 20 for items of a similar size, shape, and color (such as a glaive and a quarterstaff). Items of a different shape, size, or color raise the DC by 5 for each dissimilar aspect, or more if the dissimilarity is extreme. This deception lasts 1 minute; if the item is still in view, the observers may recognize their error unless you make another bluff check.

The Under Siege trait, thematically, fits considering Norben is a missionary from a foreign country, sent to convert the wrongly-faithful.  In a realm full of people who don't take kindly to being told their angels aren't gods, it could be useful to have some kind of coded body language to identify allies.  And getting bluff as a class skill is gravy.  (Fast Talker is an alternative if the flavor of Under Siege is too ridiculous.)

Power of Suggestion has obvious huckster benefits.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Well played, Hulu

Your "There was an error on this page (500 error)" screen has an embedded clip of the extended Homer Simpson "D'oh" montage.  But you just had to make me watch an ad first, didn't you?

Monday, November 15, 2010

Norben Fletcher: On Paper

I'm creating him within Pathfinder rules because, absent other input, it seemed to be the direction the e-mail thread was ultimately heading towards.  It's easily converted back into standard 3.5 if necessary.

Name: Norben Fletcher
Race: Human
Class: Cleric
Alignment: CG
Size/Gender: M
Age: 33
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 245 (in the Friar Tuck fashion)
Hair: Shaved
Eyes: Brown

Stats: Using the 25-point buy system since it seemed closest to what we used to deal with previously, can be modified if shifting to lower point tiers or if a rolling system is permitted.
10 points: 10 -> 16
5 points: 10 -> 14
5 points: 10 -> 14
3 points: 10 -> 13
2 points: 10 -> 12

Str:  13
Dex: 10
Con: 12
Int: 14
Wis: 18 (+2 human)
Cha: 14

Comments: I wrote myself into a difficult bind, where the character concept relied heavily on charisma-based skills, which meant neither Cha nor Int could serve as dump stats (and indeed ended up becoming the secondary and tertiary stats instead).  This totally ruled out starting at 20 Wis, forcing me into a more diversified stat allocation.  Str at 13 to qualify for certain combat feats and carrying capacity, 12 con because I'm taking the extra skill point instead of HP each level, and 10 Dex as a dump (and ideally he'll be running around in plate eventually, so only missing out on one AC).

HP: 9
AC:  17 = 10 + 5 armor + 2 shield
Fort:  3 = 2 base + 1 Con
Ref:  0
Will:  6 = 2 base + 4 Wis
Speed: 30 (30 base - 10 armor + 10 Travel domain)
Init: +0
Melee attack:  +1, 1d8+1
CMB: +1
CMD: +11
Languages: Common, Celestial, 1 tbd (are Infernal and Abyssal going to be combined?)

Skills with ranks:
Bluff: +7
Diplomacy: +6
Heal: +8
Knowledge (Religion): +6
Sense Motive: +9
Spellcraft: +6

6 skill ranks:  2 base + 2 int +1 human +1 favored class

Feats:
Combat Casting
1 tbd

Domains & Abilities:
-Travel Domain, Trade Subdomain:  +10 base speed
-Silver-Tongued Haggler (Su): Whenever you make a Bluff, Diplomacy, or Sense Motive check, you can, as a free action, grant yourself a bonus on the roll equal to 1/2 your cleric level (minimum +1).  (7/day)
-Healing Domain
-Rebuke Death (Sp): You can touch a living creature as a standard action, healing it for 1d4 points of damage plus 1 for every two cleric levels you possess. You can only use this ability on a creature that is below 0 hit points. (7/day)
-Channel Energy (Su): Channeling energy causes a burst that affects all creatures of one type (either undead or living) in a 30-foot radius centered on the cleric. The amount of damage dealt or healed is equal to 1d6 points of damage plus 1d6 points of damage for every two cleric levels beyond 1st (2d6 at 3rd, 3d6 at 5th, and so on).  (5/day)

Spells:
Orisons: 3
1st level: 2+1 (longstrider, CLW)

Gear:
Scale Mail (50gp)
Heavy Mace (12gp)
Heavy Wooden Shield (7gp)
Backpack (2gp)
Bedroll (1sp)
Winter Blanket (5sp)
Chest (small, 2gp)
Flask (3cp)
Flint and Steel (1gp)
Lamp (common, 1sp)
Belt Pouch x2 (2gp)
Trail Rations x6 (3gp)
Shaving Kit (15gp)
Tent (medium, 15gp)
Torch x3 (3cp)
Holy Symbol (silver, 25gp)
Cleric's Vestments (5gp)
Traveler's Outfit (1gp)

This adds up to 140 gold and change, which is right on for the listed average starting gold value for clerics.  If this number is bumped up significantly, I'd consider upgrading to splint or banded mail first, then a cart and mule for heavy hauling.

Traits:
Under Siege
Power of Persuasion

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Norben Fletcher 7/7

"Please sir, have mercy sir.  You're a man of the faith, sir, how could you..."

Darkness had settled over the landscape; what little could be seen was illuminated by the stars above, or the few hearthfires burning at the farms in the valley below these foothills, with Tresco a bright orange dot in the distance.  The bandit couldn't see the inky blood slowly dripping off Norben's macehead, or the two bodies that lay further down the slope, but he knew they were there.

"Bloodhound.  You ever own a bloodhound, child?  Good huntin' dog, loyal.  They look lazy, but you get'em out in the field, they'll track anything.  You give'em the scent, they'll run it down.  Surprisin' speed.  Agility.  Endurance.  Fine animal, bloodhound.  Don't ever stop until the prey's caught."

The bandit was trying to crawl away backwards, ankle twisted and probably broken after stumbling over a tree root during the uphill chase.  "Have mercy...angel of mercy, please, sir.  I beg you, I'll stop, I'll quit, I'll..."

"You hush boy.  Angel o' Mercy.  Pshaw.  Boy I walk in the Light of the Lord, may his radiance warm my soul for eternity.  Don't speak at me about angels.  There's only one path, boy, and that's to walk in the glorious Light.  To shun it is to invite the darkness into your heart.  Bet you got some demon in you right now, son."

"B-but you can't do violence under the Light!  Man of faith!  Please!"  He crested the top of this particular hill, treeless and with a good view of the valley.  Good lookout territory for bandits.  "Boy, you turn your head up, you look up.  You look at the sky.  You squint and you look real good n' hard."  Norben could vaguely make out the silhouette of the bandit performing as instructed.

"You see any light right now, son?"  By the time the bandit peered back down, he caught a glimmer of starlight off the head of Norben's mace, held high, charging forward.

Norben Fletcher 6/7

A stiff breeze stirred a small whirlwind of dust about his boots as he strolled into Tresco proper.  The morning was still yet early, and most women of the house were about, hauling washwater from the well or the day's bread from the local baker.  It was a curiously large village for a farming community - and what village wife doesn't do her own baking? - but that just meant foot traffic would be better for his sermon.  He finished off one of the sweet buns he'd been gifted earlier, licking crumbs from his lips as he tucked away the final treat back into a pouch.

Scanning the town square for the first time, he slowed his gait, walking alongside the periphery to observe some of the locals.  Most of the traffic seemed to be heading to and from the town well, but that also meant that particular space was also the muddiest; spilled water mixed with the worn dirt there.

*snap*

Lifting his boot, he sighted the small gray-white stone he'd stepped upon while he wasn't minding his direction.  He lifted his foot to check the damage to the soles, then bent down closer to the rubble.  Two small rocks, the dize of the joints on a man's thumb, oddly shapen lay pressed into the ground.  It seemed that one was a crudely carved head, something with pointy ears, and the other half was probably the oval-ish body with stubs for legs.  He'd have picked it up from the path, but he caught a faint glimpse of movement from the corner of his eye.  Something disappeared between a row of thatched housing, shaded by the angled light.  He pursued casually.

******

"Darlin', I'm not gonna hurt ya.  Man o'the Lord I am, good n' true.  Look here, just so happens I have this delicious sweet bun here..."  The child's eyes grew wide as she grabbed the meal from his hands, biting ravenously.  Through tears in her tunic he could count individual ribs; this wasn't a case of gluttony he'd have to lecture for.  "Child, where's yer ma and yer pa?  Shouldn't you be workin' the chores at home?"

Around mouthfuls of bread, "Lookin for work, sir.  Da died some while back, and my ma, she used to be a farmhand, used to raise horses.  But sir that farm sold their horses to a merchant that came through town early in the summer, then my ma had nothin' left to tend, so they told her to git.  Ma says she's tryin real hard, sir."

"Well darlin', tell you what, I'm a man of the faith, but I'm also a merchant.  Conn-a-sir of the fine arts.  Couldn't help but notice I ruined a fine scupture out in the square."  The girl shyly pulled four of the poor soapstone carvings from her one functional pocket.  They appeared to be amorphous four-legged animals, obviously the work of a child with a lot of time to kill and no resources for proper baubles from a merchant.  "I'll pay you for the one I done broke, and for those too.  Four gold coins each, and no talkin' me up."

******

He sinched up the small pouch holding twenty five golden coins and handed it over to the grinning youth.  "Now you run home and you stay there 'till yer ma comes home, and you show her, and you say the preacher man bought your statues.  You don't tell anyone else about this, m'kay?"  She nodded, adding "You be careful, sir.  There's a thief about town.  Men been volunteering for the night watch, but they ain't caught'emMight think you have money, sir."

"Don't you worry your pretty little head, darlin'."  Norben smiled, standing and stretching beneath the rising sun.  "Ain't no thief can hide under the Light.  Tell you what, I have another five gold coins, all for you, if you do me a small favor.  After you run home, you hide yer money.  Then wherever you get these rocks from, you find ones the size of yer fist.  You bring as many as you can get into town, you pile them up against the well over in that square.  Somebody asks what yer doin', say nothin'.  Secret between you 'n me."  She nodded and scampered off.  Norben would have to wait to setup his pulpit.  Under thatched shade, he started rooting through his many pockets and pouches, looking for his best pipe as he strolled the outer alleys of Tresco.  "Ain't no one can hide."

Norben Fletcher 5/7

"Sir, I said sir, this child is under the protection of the Light.  You will release him until he's had his confession."

The larger afternoon crowd filled its ranks from the mothers who had laundry to wash in the morning, farmers done with their chores sent into town for supplies, and other local folk who'd heard the preacher was back after some months.  They pressed close, some elbowing their way through onlookers to get nearer to the table to get a look at the thief.  A gaunt, dirty youth - past his adolescent years but not quite a man - shielded himself behind Norben's shoulder.  His left arm was being tugged by an older, grizzled man in studded leather and a leather cap, club at his side hanging off a firm tanned belt.  Some of the men in the crowd were shouting encouragement; volume was quickly rising, and Norben knew the dangerous strengths of a mob.

"Now Constable," he began, speaking quietly enough that the audience would need to hush to hear.  And they did.  "I understand this young man has committed sin in Tresco.  I understand that the letter of the law says he should face punishment for his crimes."  The young thief was the only person present to glance over at the pile of fist-sized stones that had been heaped up against the village well.  "However, he's given himself up to the lord.  The Light above has caused him to see the sin of his ways, and he just wants a chance to explain.  Surely the wise Constable's heart isn't so black to allow this child a chance at redemption."

"Now look here, preacher.  The Angel of Justice is the patron of Tresco, and I can't rightly let this boy - this thief - slip by without the Hall deciding his fate.  Wouldn't be right.  I'm a religious man, and my conscience says this boy needs t'answer for his crimes."

Norben frowned plaintively at the gathered crowd as they murmured support, some nodding silently.  "Angel o' Justice."  *yeah*  "'bout two weeks back, I passed through a town called Westshine.  Farmin' town jus like this one here.  Folks there caught a thief, jus like this child here, stealin' livestock.  Know what they did?  Prayed real hard for him, made'em pray too.  Said Angel o' Mercy wouldn't abide by punishment."  *justice here - yeah*  "So which one's right?  Which one walks the path o'the Lord?"  *.....*  "Son, let me tell you what for," he spoke to the Constable, turning back away from the placated villagers.  "This boy look like a Demon to you?  Think he wants to do you an' yours harm?  The Lord's light shinin' on him right now, showin' me he's good inside.  Game himself up, didn't he?  Right here in the square, walked right up, told everyone himself.  Are you a bettin' man, Constable?  I bet this boy's tryin' to do right by someone, might be in some trouble you don't know.  Should hear him out, outa the goodness of your heart, shouldn't you?"

"But the Angel of Justice says..."

"Boy, I'm a servant of the Lord too, you wanna worship me?  You worship the deacon that runs that chapel down the road?  You gonna listen to one facet of the gospel an' ignore the rest?  I don't see no angels here.  You ever see an angel?  You ever see an angel?"  *no...nuh-uh..*  "Well alright then.  Know what you do see?  Ever'day?  Those suns up there, the light of the Lord, ever'day, shinin down on you, giving you sustenance, light, life, warmth.  Settin' the path of the righteous is the Lord's and his alone.  The rest of us just walk it.  You got that?"

*But what about the Angel of the Heavens up there with him?*

"You folks don't even know the gospel, the proper one," he chastised, frowning again, drawing silence.  "Imma tell you.  Back before there even was light, there were only four things.  The Earth, our ancestors, darkness, and the Demons.  They walked the surface like us, tortured us, slaughtered us, bathed in our blood.  For centuries they bred us for their pleasure, 'till one day, one man stood up.  One man, heart o' gold, said no, this isn't right.  He fought back, tought men how to fight, how to hope.  Tought them dignity and faith and honor and community.  Showed them how to make cities, how to defend themselves.  Well this made the Demons rightful angry, and they warred, Demons 'n humans, for decades, till finally the Devil himself crawled up from the blackest pits of night.  This man himself fought the Devil.."  *Devil?*  "The Prince of Demons, ma'am.  So evil just looking at him can turn a man's soul black.  But this one man, he had the Light in 'em.  He fought the Devil across the Earth for weeks till finally he push'em to the edge of the Earth, to the final cliff, end o' the world.  But the Devil fought hard, and the only way he could push'em off was to take a blow himself.  Devil's black finger ripped through him, took out his guts, but it left enough opening for the man to land a final knock that sent the Devil falling into the Void where he belongs.  Man fell down on the edge of the Void, bleedin' t'death, until one woman who'd followed him all those weeks found him, wrapped his wound, held'em tight right there in the night 'n sang to him.  She cried and she sang to soothe him knowing he'd die right there.  When he'd spilled his last drop of blood, the Light tore out from his chest.  The First Light, they called it, an' they saw the Earth for true.  It burned so bright it melted the skin right off the Demons, and they ran back underground.  Folks, the Daylord was born anew, and he ascended to the sky so he could illumine the whole Earth.  Man was free to live, and the Light of the Lord kept the men from sin and inviting the Demons back into their world."

*But the other sun..*

"Ma'am, that's the light of Love.  That woman who sang, who was there when the Light came to be, well she got blinded.  She lived the rest of her life without again knowing the Light's beauty.  When she finally passed, the Lord took pity on her, an he brought her soul up to the heavens with him, so she could see the Earth from up high.  Now together they dance the sky for eternity, the Lord's sun and that little one, that's the little bit he gave over to her.  Ain't no angels about it, ma'am.  That's husband an' wife up there."

Norben let the crowd whisper amongst themselves, neighbors and friends arguing or confirming their opinions on the story he'd just told.  There were some stifled tears, primarily from the womenfolk - that story always got'em.  The Constable had released his grip on the thief, opening his mouth to speak again, but was interrupted.

"It's my pa, good sir.  I did it for my pa.  He's sick somethin' fierce, he's...well he's a cutler, but he'd taken a job from...well, those Bloodhound Gang toughs up near the hills.  Said they'd pay good money to sharpen their swords, and he didn't have a choice, but he didn't want the folks to know he'd taken a job from the Bloodhounds.  Constable'd see him in the gallows.  Well pa did the job, but then they just stabbed him, right there in the house.  They took off laughting, n' he was bleedin', and I couldn't tell anyone 'cause then I'd have to say what happened.  I wrapped him up best I could, but there was so much blood.  And they never paid, and we didn't have any money, and we needed herbs, and he was cold so I took some blankets, and some food, and..."

"Child, I'll take it from here.  You see, this boy ain't got the Demon in him.  He maybe stole some of your food and blankets, but he was doing it for love, for his pa.  And your Angel of Justice would'a seen him and his pa hanged.  That's not the way of the Lord.  But you can atone, folks of Tresco.  Boy, you take some big men, you go run to your pa, carry his bed out into the Light.  Tresco will know both justice and mercy today, and will also come to understand the love of the Lord."

******

Everybody not working a field was circling the small dusty road outside the cutler's thatched home.  A pallet had been placed out of the lengthening shadows, supporting a pale man in his red-stained clothes.  He hadn't even been changed or washed.  His breath was raspy, the wet gasps of a man approaching twilight.  It seemed that he'd taken a stab in the thigh, but without proper bandaging it was allowed to bleed out, likely infected by now.  It was a miracle he'd survived this long.

"Child," he began, speaking to the aged father laying below him, "a soul must be cleansed before it can pass to the Lord.  You have sin you must atone for.  As such, this is not your time.  I call upon the blessing of the Daylord, as his radiance shines down upon this body, to reject this soul, to restore this flesh.  The Tears of the Lord cleanse you..."  He laid one hand down on the man's chilled forehead, the other pulling a tiny glass vial from his pocket and flicking off the waxed cork.  "Tears of the Lord replenish you.  Tears of the Lord fill your veins, become your blood and flesh, slake your fever.  You shall not know death today.  You shall not know death.  You shall not know death!  Be healed and drink of his Light!"  He poured the meager contents of the vial over the exposed wound as the light overhead seemed to concentrate over the pallet.  Dropping the vial, he clutched his dual-disc emblem hanging off a silver chain from his nexk.  A beam of effulgent splendor encapsulated Norben and the dying man for but a moment before it became a circular wave of raw energy, pulsing out through the dozens that had gathered to witness the scene.  When the light faded, the washed wound was now whole.  Reverent whispering spread through the assembly; the tailor's small finger cuts had mended, Old Brin's aches and pains had subsided just slightly.

"Those who worship the Lord and only the Lord shall know his Love.  He watches over the faithful."  Norben smiled, slyly pocketing the spent vial again, as he looked out onto a suddenly adoring crowd.  "Let us praise Him."  He turned his face skyward, opening his palms to the sun and began chanting.  "O Lord, blinded by your light, yet I see.  Warmed by your sun..."

******

"Now child," he hushed, opening the lid on the wooden box he'd left behind in the square, faithful that none of the many deposited coins had been taken during his absence.  "You listen good.  It's between you and the Lord to find forgiveness, it don't happen just one day 'cause I say so.  You take this money and you do right by your pa.  You pay back everyone you done stole from and you apologize.  From the heart, mind.  If you don't mean it, they'll know.  You settle up your debts and get some food in your pa.  And you stay away from those Bloodhounds, y'hear?  Agents o' the demons, they are.  Sneakin' into town under the cover o'night, secret business.  They come back you say no, scream bloody murder 'till they go."  He spared a quick glance to the horizon; he'd little time left before he needed to be back on the road.  He didn't want to have to sing the Dusk Song here in town and be stuck for the night.  Hastily he stacked ten golden coins and an uncounted pile of silver and copper on the otherwise cleared table.  "You take this and you walk in the Light, son."  Any price was worth that look of dawning conversion.  Another soul had been saved from the Demons, and perhaps a few more besides.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Norben Fletcher 4/7

Norben sank down upon an old oak stool, pipe already lit, lazy sweet smoke quickly filling the room with a haze illuminated by the mid-morning sun streaming in through this home's one window.  The steel plates of his armor reflected the angled light, piercing the shadows of the otherwise dim room.  He was in an unfamiliar house, with a tiled roof and enough furnishing to suggest a well-to-do local craftsman lived here, or perhaps a landowner who didn't do his own farming.  Something metallic dropped to the floor unseen in another room, and Norben scooted his stool closer to the doorway and its cracked frame.

A man in his youthful years, tall but dirty in torn leathers, came running around a corner, halting dead at seeing Norben blocking the only exit that didn't involve jumping through glass.  He scanned the walls, panicked, looking for another option.  "Have a seat, boy.  Don't worry, I won't hurt you.  This isn't my home."  He took another puff from his tobacco, then gestured with the pipe-stem towards another stool across the room.

"Look, I wasn't...I mean, I'm not...I wasn't going to take anything important.."
"Mmhm."
"Hey, don't turn me in.  I want refuge.  Yeah, those folks'll hurt me."
"Darn straight they're fixin't hurt you.  Son, you seen that pile of rocks they're stacking by the well?  They're gonna strap you to that thing and stone you to death.  Make an example outa you."
"What?!  I don't want to die, I just...I just needed some money, I needed something.."
"What you need, child, is salvation.  Now I ain't gonna turn you in, boy.  I turn you in, they kill you, you ain't learned nothin' and the Devil has another soul.  What you need is forgiveness, and you'll only find that if you give yourself up and beg mercy."
"How..how do I do that?"
"Imma leave you here.  You steal or you don't, ain't nothin but between you and the Lord.  You pray real hard.  You go look at those rocks, feel how hard they are.  If you think you can let the Lord purify your heart and light your soul, you come find me in the square this afternoon.  You might just live to see tomorrow, son."

Norben took one final breath off his pipe before hauling his packs up off the floor nearby, slinging the straps over one shoulder, leaving the other arm free to tap out the spent tobacco as he exited the cloud haze.  It was time to lift this burden off his shoulders.  He walked to the village square, waving to passersby and shaking hands as he sought somewhere to set up shop.

Norben Fletcher 3/7

"You mean the Ankathan Prayer Stones.  Powerful holy artifacts, sir.  Probably shouldn't even be out on this table, t'be honest, sir.  Church'll be rightful angry to see them gone.  Here, let me just..."  "Now wait, just a minute."

Norben smiled warmly as the village mayor picked up one of the soapstones, round face squinting as he examined it closely.  The carving was indeed quite crude, something a child might have done in a spare afternoon.  "Looks like a dog.  Why would a dog be a holy artifact?"  One of the many rewards of the Lord's vestments was the image of authority and earnestness.  "It's a wolf, sir.  The Ankathans...do you know the Ankathans, sir?  A sect of the Lord's faith on the other side of the continent.  Their trial of passage to become of the clergy is to send their acolytes into the wild without shelter, where they sleep under the Lord's protection during the day, and pray all night holding one of these stones, rough and unhewn, straight from the mines of their tallest mountain.  They hold it hard and they pray harder.  Then, one night, they feel the might of the Lord channeled through the stone, through their bones, through the Earth itself.  They sense forest animals put there by the Lord to protect them, animals that hunt the Demon and his agents.  The next morning, those stones are transformed sir, transformed into the images of the guardians.  When you pray at sunset, you hold that stone, the spirit of that wolf will guard over your house until the Lord's awakening.  Do you have any children, sir?"  He removed the stone from the mayor's thick fingers, before the man could damage the goods unwittingly.

"My daughter, she..."  "She'd sleep more soundly with this stone by her bedside, I would think.  But like I said, it's a high holy artifact, I couldn't possibly imagine letting it go for anything less than a substantial donation to fund another church mission to Ankatha."  He again affixed a welcoming smile as a nearby onlooker, dressed finer than most of the other matrons - perhaps she owned the bakery - begin weighing her coinpurse and slipping between the light crowd to his tableside.  The repeated sound of gold dropping onto felt-lined wood made him beam.

"The Lord bless you, child."

Norben Fletcher 2/7

"May the Lord bring me a pack mule 'fore this day is over."  He flexed his arm above his head, trying to stretch the muscle that had the worn leather brace covering his armor's collar digging into it every other step.  His back ached under the weight of the scale plates, a necessary while traveling alone; even servants of the Lord were set upon by brigands on the country roads.  An ebony lacquered box was tied high on his traveling pack, seated immediately above his bedroll and portable tent.  Below this, a larger sack carring the majority of his personal belongings hung from the canvas straps that looped through the armor.  Off his belt, a heavy steel mace hung from a leather loop, always at the ready should bandits or agents of the Night set upon him.  He was told that wandering the back country was safer before the fracture, but with war came pockets of lawlessness, especially this close to the border.

"Mornin' preacher!" someone called from the fields lining the hard dirt road.  Norben realized his arm was still skyward.  The farmer probably mistook it for a wave.  "A blessed mornin', child.  How far to the nearest village?"  As per ritual he'd woken before sunrise, so he could shave in time to recite the Prayers of Dawn as the Lord's light crested above the horizon.  It had only taken ten minutes afterwards to break camp and repack his belongings.  Yet still, by the time he rejoined the road and had gone a quarter mile, the farmers were already deep into their daily chores.  Blessed were the men who toiled under the suns' nascent rays, but these were not his flock.  Farmers had no time or energy to spare for impurity.  "'bout two miles straight down, preacher.  Tresco's the name.  Finest bakery south of [name tbd when I have e-mail access]."  Towns like these tried hard to differentiate themselves; self-promotion was common.  Norben noticed that this particular farm grew wheat, figured they were a main supplier.

"Child...children," he corrected, noticing four farmhands popping up amongst the amber stalks, "may the tears of the Lord nourish this land."  He reached into a small pouch on his belt, tugging free a thin glass vial with a waxed cork.  He emptied the clear contents into the air, shaking the vial as he recited, "May His light give us strength.  May His warmth give us joy.  The Daylord smiles upon the shepherds of the Earth, the greensmen, keepers of his garden.  You will know his purity and be cleasned of sin.  Your aches shall dull and your harvest shall be bountiful.  Praise now the Lord's might," he intoned, casting his face and both open palms to the sky.  Each farmer dropped his tools and took the supplicant's pose, and together they prayed.  "O Lord, blinded by your light, yet I see.  Warmed by your sun, my heart knows only the sacred fire.  We walk in your hallowed path, awaiting the Reckoning.  May your illumination light the way."

A moment passed in restful silence as he pocketed the empry vial, then one of the younger boys, deeply tanned and shirtless, asked "Tears of the Lord?  Sir, I've been to the chapel, but I don't..."

Norben raised his hand, calling for silence, which swiftly came.  He suppressed an amused grin, instead adopting the airs of gravitas.  He spoke in a lower, more reverent tone than the early prayer.  "The most holy priests of the Lord, the most pious and devout, in their sunset years begin to feel the call.  They are moved to wander the land, following the path of the suns, praying through the nights without sleep.  For weeks they travel, eating only what the Lord sees fit to provide along the way, drinking only where the Lord has placed a stream.  This is a pilgrimage, boy.  Only those who have never known sin, who reject their Devils absolutely, survive.  Those that do arrive at Quen'slar, an ancient monestary, housing the holiest texts and the most sacred relics of the Lord.  There they study and pray until they come to know the Lord as they do themselves.  Some return to our lands to impart their wisdom upon the clergy, some live the remainder of their days in that monestary.  After one of these priests passes into the heavens, the next morning, there is a day rain.  The clouds are pierced by pure white light as the joyful Tears of the Lord fall upon the Earth.  Some of these tears are collected and sanctified, and distributed throughout the faith as the holiest of holy waters.  And now the Tears of the Lord nourish your fields.  You shall know his love this harvest."

Lambent smiles creased the farmers' faces, the youngest once again reaching to the sky.  "Praise the Lord.  Bless you, sir.  Please, won't you come sit for a meal.  Bess was baking early this morning.  Please, do me the honor of gracing my table."

"I'm afraid I must reach the next village before the midday services.  Perhaps I could take something small for the road..."

*********

Finishing one sweet bun leisurely, so as to not welcome gluttony into his heart, he wrapped the remaining two in the checkered cloth Bess had refused to let him leave without.  These both were stuffed into a beltpouch before wiping at the crumbs on his lips with an armsleeve.  Sated, he strolled with a happy gait over the small wooden bridge spanning a brook that hardly seemed wide enough to require crossing.  "A blessed morn' indeed," he mumbled to himself, kneeling down at the far bank of the brook to refill his empty vial.  He refit the cork, then was back on his way to Tresco, ready to fight sin in His name.

Norben Fletcher 1/7

Even performing this task for the hundredth time, he was surprisingly pleased with the efficiency of the design.  His heavy scale mail served as the base, hem flattened to rest evenly on a level surface, such as the hard packed dirt here in the village square.  He'd wanted to setup closer to the central well, for the better foot traffic, but spilled water left patches of mud he'd rather not plot around.  His simple mace hooked onto the mail's collar, head planted on the dirt, standing vertical.  Leather straps, wrapped around the flat butt end, tied around the two armholds on his large, circular wooden shield bearing the painted crest of the Daylord.  From a lacquered wooden, hinged box he removed a carefully rolled tablecloth, recently dyed yellow.  He unfurled the cloth, then draped it over the makeshift table, tattered ends kissing the ground and hiding the structure from public view.

"Thank you Lord, for this cool summer morn," he mumbled privately, wiping beads of sweat from his shaved scalp with the cuff of his white surplice.  Despite the breeze, hauling his wares and the exertion of the setup still left him winded and flushed.  The deep-stained box was then placed atop the stand, lid opened.  It contained variegated curio:  Small glass vials of a clear liquid, short white candles set within a tin base, a beaded necklace, a small latched iron pot the size of a man's palm, a plain copper ring that seemed to need some burnishing, four polygonal quartz stones, a wooden Sunrod, and six identical small bronze hand-bells.  In a normal goods store this display wouldn't garner much attention, but when delicately placed on display at a stand in the middle of the village square by a man proudly bearing the dual-disc emblem of the Holy Order of the Daylord on his chest, curious eyes wandered close.  Norben opened his mouth to speak, but then paused, flashing an embarrassed smile to the assembling crowd while fishing into a pocket of the traveling garb he wore beneath his holy vestments.  He withdrew four small soapstones, carved crudely into animal forms that could be bears or badgers depending on how judgmental you felt like being, and mixed them into the display of wares.  Now, finally, his good works could begin.

"Ladies and Gentlemen of the blessed village of Tresco, it is an honor and a privilege to be able to minister upon you the Song of Dawn," his baritone voice carried across the square.  He knew the chapel priest here was the somber type, so he played up the evangelical timbre to his speech.  "The great Lord has spoken to me in the night, when I wandered the roads lost, with darkness so thick it choked me, when midnight howl of the Devil preyed upon the living, and he whispered in my ear, and he shielded me from the night, and he pointed his finger, and he said 'Tresco, my child.  There you shall find sanctuary, and you shall bring upon them my Word, and you shall bring to them gifts of the Earth, and through their devotion I will protect them from the Demon inside each man.  I will forgive them their sins.  You will sing the Song so that they shall know my radiance, and allow the light to cleanse their souls of the blight.'  Ladies and Gentlemen of Tresco, I am Norben Fletcher, Father Confessor of the Holy Order, humble servant of the Lord, a simple preacher here to bring absolution and pennance, to offer the relics of the faith, and accept donations on behalf of the Pontifex in order to continue spreading the light of the Lord."  Here he closed the lid of his felt-lined box, the one that carried the curio here from his last village, one index finger trailing along the top to indicate the small slot designed to accept coin.  The devout approached first to espy his goods and the quality of his vestments, but his interests were amongst the stragglers; men casting nervous glances towards his assembled crowd, paces stopped in confusion and mixed intentions.  Sinners.

"You!" he barked suddenly, pointing through the crowd to one such downcast man who looked suddenly quite imperiled.  "Your shadow belies you.  Approach and confess your sins to the Lord."  A sly smile touched Norben's face, anticipating silver.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Quantitative Easing Isn't The Devil

I'm growing increasingly irate at some of the descriptions of Quantitative Easing I've read in the blogosphere recently.  Meg Marco of Consumerist, a site I love and read daily (but let's not pretend that it isn't just another outrage blog), describes it as:
1) A bank has something they don't want to sell because nobody is paying enough.
2) The Fed is like, hey, how about we buy that off you for a little bit more than market price.
3) The bank is like, yeah cool.
4) The Fed credits the bank's account with money that it creates.
This is ostensibly correct, though it's missing some context I'll fill in below.  The tone of Meg's article is skeptical, and naturally it provides a nice venue for Consumerist's outrage brigade to vent about printing money = inflation in the comments.

This article from NPR explaining QE is just as vapid, summarizing it as "It means creating massive amounts of money out of thin air with the hope of getting the economy back on track."  Matt Taibbi does a pretty good job of comparing it to Zimbabwe's monetary policy while also taking his requisite shots at Wall Street fat cats.

Here's QE in my nutshell:  The government wants to encourage private lending to spur the economy.  One way to encourage lending is to lower the interest rate it charges banks to borrow money from the Fed, who in turn will borrow more money and then lend it out to private consumers, who presumably use it to open businesses and buy durable goods and etc.  Because that "discount" rate is already 0.75%, it can't reasonably go much lower.  Instead, what the Fed can do is make up imaginary money in a special account and buy up fixed assets from banks.  QE is targeted at particularly unsavory assets (think CMOs and other collateralized debt vehicles), and gives banks a ton of cashmoney, which they then will (in theory) lend out.  Unlike other similar programs, like TARP and Hoover's RFC, this isn't a budgeted expense.

Is it printing money to feed into the economy?  Technically yes.  Why isn't this a huge problem?

Because it's what the Fed does every single goddamn day.  The government tracks the difference between the target Fed funds rate (the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight lending to meet reserve requirements) and the actual Fed fund rate and conducts Open Market Operations to guide the actual rate towards the target.  It happens literally every day.  Sometimes the Fed makes up imaginary money to feed to banks to increase the money supply.  Other times (and this is important) they take that money back off the market by selling whatever security they originally purchased.  This is the minor daily mechanism for monitoring and adjusting interest rates, compared to the major big stick of the eight yearly meetings to discuss adjusting the discount and target Fed funds rates.

QE isn't a Zimbabwe-style money-printing inflation-causing apocalypse because after the Fed sends a few billion dollars to their favorite banks, they end up sitting on a massive pile of interest-bearing debt securities that 1) make money (unless the security collapses due to bankruptcy or foreclosures) and 2) will later be sold back to the market, when the investment climate is better, for close to the premium they paid in the first place.  In terms of the long term monetary supply it's essentially neutral.

In the short term, yes, it might cause a mild uptick in inflation (hence the article about TIPS Fever yesterday from the Times), but in five or six years when the Fed starts selling off its billions of dollars of holdings, it will suppress inflation.  It's not fundamentally different from how the government has been handling its monetary policy for decades.  It's not the end of the world.  There are times and places for uninformed outrage at government policy, but this isn't one of them.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

I love this:

Jonah Goldberg, author of Liberal Fascism, gets uppity about some other blogger using the term "nihilism" to describe Mitch McConnell's political philosophy (which, in his own words, is that "The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.” )

Yeah, NRO's The Corner, you go girl.  You tell fellow NRO bloggers Andy McCarthy (author of The Grand Jihad: How Islam and the Left Sabotage America) and Stanley Kurtz (author of Radical-in-Chief: Barack Obama and the Untold Story of American Socialism) that Jake Tapper is totally out of line throwing around aggrandized political and philosophical terms like that.

Head, meet Desk

Articles like this make me want to crater my own skull.  The following two opening paragraphs represent some of the most shamelessly ignorant financial reporting I've ever seen in my life.
At a time when savers complain that they are earning almost no interest from their bank accounts, some investors on Monday bought United States government bonds that effectively had a negative rate of return.

Bizarre as it sounds, that is correct. In an auction of a special kind of five-year Treasury bond, investors paid $105.50 for every $100 of bonds the government sold — agreeing to pay the government for the privilege of lending it money.
What the Times is nominally suggesting here is that investors are purposefully buying into 5-year securities that ultimately represent a loss of money at the conclusion of the 5 year term.  It's not ambiguous.  "Negative rate of return."  It's also retarded and/or deceptive.  It's Finance 101 retarded.  Here's what's really happening:

Fixed income products, such as bonds and Treasury notes, have a fixed coupon rate of return.  A 3% bond pays out 3% of its principal face value yearly, representing a 3% annual return.  Annual.  Got that?  Ok, so when you buy these notes, they're most commonly on a secondary market where other investors can bid the note up or down.  Appealing investments often sell at a premium above the face value of the note.  Unappealing investments sell at a discount.  This is normal.

NYT is citing notes being purchased at $105.50, which is a 5.5% premium.  We'll get into the reason for the premium later, just note that that buy-in premium is a one-time deal.  So you buy $100 worth of note at $105.50.  Let's say it's a 2.75% 5-year note.

Day 0: Paid 105.5, own 100:  5.5% loss
Year 1: Paid 105.5, own 100 note and $2.75 in interest (total 102.75):  2.75% loss
Year 2: Paid 105.5, own 100 note and $5.50 in interest (total 105.5): Even Steven.

YOU STILL HAVE THREE YEARS OF INTEREST COMING AT YOUR DUMB FUCKING FACE CHRISTINE HAUSER

You're not "agreeing to pay the government for the privilege of lending it money" because you're still coming out in the green at the end of the term.  You're only experiencing a negative return at the moment of purchase, a 1-time cost, which is totally mitigated (at current TIPS rates) in the middle of the third year.

The article also does a woefully inadequate job of explaining this "special" Treasury security and why it would be selling at a premium in the current economic climate.  Specifically it's about Inflation-Protected securities issued by the Treasury, or TIPS.  The principal value (the $100 in the previous example) is tied to the CPI inflation bundle and adjusted up yearly if there's been inflation, so your coupon rate (currently something like 2.375% for these 5-year TIPS) is fixed but is multiplied against an ever-increasing principal value, so your interest payments increase.  TIPS are a zero-risk hedge against anticipated inflation, whereas other traditional fixed income products have fixed rates AND fixed principal, so their value can deflate over time.  Currently most investors and analysts are predicting both increased interest rates and increased inflation (I'll try to link charts later, but go take a look at commodity pricing in 2010, specifically corn and wheat) which makes short term investments attractive (so that you can move into longer term stuff once rates go up) and TIPS attractive.  So obviously short-term TIPS are going to sell at a premium.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

More Bubble

Just wanted to post a quick chart I ran across (thanks SF Fed) that neatly summarizes some of the domestic housing bubble issues and touches a bit on how that was affected by planned communities (and perhaps the New Urbanism trend in selected locations).  When you think about mass-construction planned communities, developments that have billboard advertisements and have phases and are sold as much as investments as homes, what areas of the county come to mind?   Florida, certainly.  Cheap land in the southwest.  The suburban areas surrounding DC and Baltimore in the mid-Atlantic.  Bad adjustable rate mortgages funded the majority of these new purchases, as demonstrated:


So there you go:  Florida, the southwest, the mid-Atlantic.  Michigan is a surprise to me, but I don't know much about that state outside of Detroit's economic issues (which, given their real estate prices, could theoretically account for the entirety of the principal-value delta statewide).

I am also stunned that Texas is in relatively good mortgage health.  I'd have figured it was in the same expansion and development boat as Arizona.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Steel & Glass

Every now and then you can discover a hidden message in the New York Times, if you have the background knowledge to read between the lines.  It's almost always a 1-2 combination of flat news-of-the-day story positioned next to a softer article about some local culturish thing affecting the subject of article 1.  Article 2 never directly states its intentions, but there's enough context between the lines to decode the message.

The top left article on nytimes.com right now details China's Central Bank declaring a not insignificant hike in their prime interest rates.  Since the global market crash in late 2008, it's been largely China's booming export and construction industry driving global growth, thanks partially to heavy government stimulus in the form of infrastructure and planned housing projects.  Chinese banks were also a main factor in their strong recovery, as they were much more liberal with their lending during the post-crash period, whereas American banks (the ones still in business) were more averse to lending (Matt Taibbi has a great article from a year ago about how American banks took TARP and other federal subsidy funds and, instead of lending as intended, bought treasury securities which were paying out a higher yield than the negligible interest rate they were paying at the discount window to borrow the money in the first place, effectively loaning the government back its own money and collecting a 2-3% spread.  I'll try to find and link it later.)  The rate hike is an effort to deflate inflation concerns, both specifically targeting the housing market and for their currency in general.

So China's booming economy and pegged currency exchange rate meant they were exporting like crazy and had more money than they knew what to do with, and banks were shoveling money out the door.  So they found something to spend the excess cash on: more construction projects.  Even today, new high speed rail plans are being contracted, and so many dams are being built on China's stretch of the Mekong river that Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam are asking for a ten year freeze on construction to find alternatives that won't completely annihilate the downstream fishing industry.

They also build cities.  Not developments; cities.  The second NYT article of interest details Ordos, a large but mostly poor city of 1.5 million that serviced the materials mining industry in the Mongolian highlands.  Specifically, the article is about the new 15-square-mile patch of nothingness that has been transformed into a modern metropolis of glass, steel, fresh pavement and heavy landscaping, as an emulation of Dubai and other shining jewels of architecture in the middle of otherwise hostile geography.  Offices and apartments and houses are being snatched up immediately after (or even before) construction at record prices, but they're being purchased as investments.

My mother would find this story familiar.  She got her first taste of mass-construction planned-community real estate in 2004 when she moved to Naples, FL.  She bought a condo during a construction phase for $120,000 and then sold it six months later for $180,000.  Then she bought another condo at 150k and sold it for 200k the next year.  This became a main source of income for her as she flipped condos left and right, each one basically identical to the last, in identical sculpted communities, increasing the asking price 20% each time.  She continued playing the insane Naples housing market until she was stuck in a half-finished development for over a year (towards the end of the bubble in 2007) and sold at 70% of the original asking price, when she moved into a new speculative retirement/golf community in the middle of nowhere in New Jersey.

So that new Ordos district is basically a ghost town; a city built for 300,000 has approximately 30,000 permanent residents, and the local economy seems driven by hotel revenues generated by Chinese government officials occasionally visiting the area.  The new property is owned but largely unused (like much of the Naples landscape after around 2006), and nobody wants to sell at a discount because they feel that real estate prices must and will rise.  Ladies and gentlement, I bring to you the Great Housing Bubble of China.

Of course, the Times can't print "China's period of rising interests rates to defer inflation and speculative housing prices is basically the same thing as our 2004-2008 bubble", but they can dedicate front page space to the plight of Ordos and let us draw our own conclusions.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Trouble on the horizon.

Alex's new favorite book is the instruction/campaign setting book for Vampire The Masquerade: Redemption.

Monday, October 11, 2010

&$%#*$@ Apples, how do they taste?!?!

I'm getting a perverse pleasure from sampling the dozen different varieties of apples offered by my local grocer.  It's not something I've ever indulged in before, so I don't know why I'm going out of my way to map my lunch plans around a daily apple, but there it is.

Today I had a massive breakfast so I decided to go with a dual-apple lunch in leiu of anything more substantial.  First was a New York Gala, which cost me 38 cents, and I consider myself overcharged by 39.  It's frankly the worst apple I've ever eaten.  There's virtually no sugar content, but also no acidity or bite.  It's also the softest apple I've ever experienced.  It's like if you took the apple mush residue from a commercial juice making facility and reconstituted it into apple form.  I originally had no idea why people would pay money for this variety of fruit, but then, recalling my near death experience trying to exit the parking lot on a monday (which is kind of a senior expedition day for the local retirement communities), it hit me:  If I was an infirm granny with aching or fake teeth and GI tract issues, this is basically the only apple I could eat.

The second, a New York Empire, tastes like a soft hybrid of a gala and a McIntosh (internet research suggests I was close:  McIntosh x Red Delicious).  It's not as tart as a McIntosh, slightly sweeter than the Gala, and almost as soft.  Which is to say I dislike it severely.

My favorite since I began experimenting is a Jazz apple, which I'm surprised to learn is a hybrid of a Gala (yuck) and a Braeburn (hard, tart, yum) and is relatively new to the global apple market.  I've been wanting to try a Temptation apple, but it's three times more expensive than the NY varieties I sampled this afternoon, and rudimentary Google searches are turning up decidedly NSFW results that have nothing to do with the firmness or flowing juices of edible produce.

Search Theory

There is an obvious and a more nuanced response to this morning's news that Peter Diamond, one of Obama's nominees to the Federal Reserve Board (who is presently being blocked by Senator Shelby), has won a share of the Nobel Prize for Economics for his work in Search Theory.  Let me dispatch with the obvious attack vector:  Shelby's hold on Diamond was because of a lack of experience, which interpreted through a modern Republicanese translator means he's an egghead professor with no experience running a factory or a bank or a drug-fueled wrestling entertainment corporation.  Given how well field-tested Wall Street executives have guided the economy in recent years, between the banks themselves or the mutliple vassals of Goldman Sachs who've occupied advisory and oversight positions in the Executive branch for the past fifteen years, I'm not sure this is a terrible indictment.  But so to have this nominee, derided for lack of experience for this economic position, end up winning a Nobel Prize is quite a large volume of egg on Richard Shelby's face.  (This will also reignite the whole "The Econmics prize isn't a real Nobel Prize!" fiasco from Krugman's award.)

The more detailed examination is even more damning for Shelby.  Giving the senator the maximum possible leeway, his position could be interpreted as expressing concern for Diamond's economic focus on the economics of information (and the subsequent application of that research by his two co-winners to labor markets) instead of macroeconomic monetary policy (an important field nowadays with round two of Quantitative Easing nearing).  On its face, this is a fair criticism, if we were to assume this was Shelby's argument, which is dubious.  The truth is, naturally, less black and white.

I run into a large number of fallacious economic arguments on the internet, most commonly from college students/graduates who've taken a 101/102 economics course and suddenly think they have all the answers to the financial crisis.  These people are also almost always arguing the conservative position, because 101 econ teaches you a warped framework to understand the basic concepts of the field.  300+ level coursework begins to unravel the faulty assumptions and shows you just how nuanced and complicated economics can be.  I'd equate it to grade school history classes teaching you all about how the Pilgrims and Indians partied on Thanksgiving, Columbus was just a brave explorer, and we fought the British over their tea policies; you don't really get around to the slavery, war, religion, and socioeconomic issues for another few years.  So econ 101 is basically:  All information is perfect, free markets are awesome and regulate themselves to perfection, and regulation is inefficient.

The intellectual fight over free markets has waged for decades and isn't germane to this post.  Professor Diamond's research involved what happens when the assumptions of perfect information break down.  In 101 terms it means what happens when consumers are shielded from the knowledge of production costs and competition (because 101 reduces everything to a supply-demand curve).  In a broader sense, it touches upon just about every major macro- and microeconomic field of study you can imagine.  The specific work generated by the Nobel trio investigated how difficulties in the actual act of finding a job can cause stagnant employment growth, even when there are ample vacancies waiting to be filled.  The basic models created by Diamond's work can also be ported to, say, the housing market (to explain sagging home sales despite the vast quantity of houses available).  Nominally this field is known as the economics of Search Costs.  "Cost" here is applied in the economic sense, where a negative externality creates inefficiency in a given market.

But so here we have an economist who specializes in Search Costs, which have multitudes of applications to today's employment condition (putting aside the other economic uses), in a political climate most poisonous to Democrats due to slacking employment figures despite a recovering economy.  This is the definition of the guy we'd want involved in government right now.  His body of work literally addresses the problems our employment figures face today.

But he's not the right guy for Richard Shelby of Alabama.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Pitchf/x

I think it's pretty interesting that TBS showed full pitchf/x tracking data for the first two days of baseball playoffs, but after Thursday's strike zone controversies, they're no longer showing it at all for friday's Phillies-Reds game.  I found it a very nice addition to the baseball broadcast, something to understand how umpires affect the game, but I guess MLB doesn't want that curtain pulled.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

The results of an Armory run:

Snipers:
The Orion is an interesting weapon.  It's one of those low-damage high-RoF snipers, which I normally dislike, but this one comes with the biggest scope available for the weapon class instead of the usual 1.0x.  It also shoots bullets that ricochet and split like shotgun fire.  So for example, if I just shoot a guy in the head, it does normal crit damage.  But if I shoot at the ground in front of his feet, the bullet will split into three and bounce up into the target for full damage x3 (albeit probably not crits like the headshot).  Good for taking out shields, but I question its utility as a multi-purpose slayer.

The Volcano ignites the target, who then sets other nearby enemies on fire, who then...etc.  The fire damage is supposedly higher than normal for a x4 elemental.  Too bad the base damage is so low.  And the scope sucks.  This is a weapon I'd probably only use if Mike's around to act as a meatshield to enable effective midrange sniping; otherwise I'd probably stick with a revolver.

Kyros' Power has only one fault.  It's a decent base damage (good) high accuracy (good) explosive sniper (100% guaranteed procs = good) with red text that translates to Transfusion-style health leeching (GOOD) but it has a fucking 1.0x scope, which is essentially worthless.  At the range where headshots are possible, the enemies can hit you back and fuck up your aiming.  I guess the idea for these sorts of weapons is to aim center mass and let the explosion proc do the bulk of the damage, but I like the visceral pleasure of seeing skulls disappear.

Revolvers:
This style of revolver is known as a "Masher" normally but the orange quality naming conventions remove that label.  It's basically a high-accuracy ranged shotgun, with a large clip, a small scope, and ammo regen.  This is probably going to become my new general-purpose main weapon.  If I switch my class mod to +accuracy, each of the seven bullets can crit on headshots.  Or fourteen bullets on a Gun Crazy proc.  Insane.

Shotguns:
1) "Bring out your dead!" supposedly means higher than normal acid DoTs, but the base damage is absurdly low, and I'm not sure when I'd want to be sniping with a 4x scope with a shotgun with 25% accuracy.  This is bank fodder.
2) 9x146 is the heaviest hitting shotgun I've seen yet.  Ammo regen and fast reload make up for the 2-shot clip.  I might hang onto this if Mike or Ryan don't claim it.
3) Or I might use this instead.  82 accuracy shotgun with a high explosive proc and a massive clip.
4) Also viable.
5) I don't know why I hung onto this one (the absurdly large scope?) but it's vendor fodder.

Assault Rifles:
I've literally never fired an assault rifle in Borderlands so I can't really comment on any of these, but they're all yours, Ryan.  The Desert Raven fires 5-round bursts.  War Guardian has ammo regen.

Other:

This is mostly just one trip to and within the Armory.  I moved the story ahead down the Marcus quest chain and had the opportunity to head back in, which I happily glitched to take my sweet time walking around.  I'll probably do it once more before the next DLC comes out (which I'll probably buy at launch, then head into playthrough 2).