2011 Fantasy Draft Analysis, hindsight version (pt1)

I've got an empty afternoon, so I've decided I'm going to determine who had the best and worst draft.

Methodology: Going round by round, I'll list the current 2011 stats of each player taken, and rank them in the subjective order I believe represents best to worst.  Player availability and positional scarcity/relativism will be factored in, so snagging Jose Bautista early in round 1 (4) doesn't necessarily guarantee the best pick in the round, since somebody later on could have made a smarter choice within the remaining player pool (however with lower overall stats).  Top pick gets 14 points, next 13, next 12, down to one point.  The highest aggregate sum will be the "winner" of the draft and earn himself receipt of some mild trash talking if he isn't in first place in the hybrid standings.

Format

[points earned]: (number of pick within round) Player Name - Position - [BA/OBP/SLG R-RBI-SB] or [W-L or SV, K, ERA/WHIP] (owner)

Round 4

14: (8) José Reyes - SS - .341/.385/.514 61-32-28 (Owen)
13: (3) José Bautista - OF/3B - .325/.468/.655 60-48-5 (Stew)
12: (9) Justin Verlander - SP - 10-3, 124K, 2.38/0.84 (Chris T)
11: (1) Kevin Youkilis - 1B/3B - .275/.394/.494 46-55-1 (Chris J)
10: (7) Victor Martinez - C - .333/.383/.494 35-44-0 (Paul)
9: (2) Andrew McCutchen - OF - .285/.388/.463 45-39-15 (Austin)
8: (11) Andre Ethier - OF - .317/.389/.461 38-37-0 (Joe)
7: (6) Ryan Howard - 1B - .253/.352/.484 39-62-1 (Fabian)
6: (12) Hunter Pence - OF - .315/.356/.490 35-52-4 (James)
5: (13) Ian Kinsler - 2B - .235/.352/.393 52-25-15 (Mike)
4: (4) Matt Cain - SP - 7-4, 89K, 3.22/1.11 (Kyle)
3: (10) Jayson Werth - OF - .228/.334/.399 36-27-10 (Ryan)
2: (14) Brandon Phillips - 2B - .291/.345/.405 48-41-4 (Tom)
1: (5) Buster Posey - C/1B - .284/.368/.389 17-21-3 (Shawn)

José Bautista is obviously playing out of his mind, but in the hindsight analysis I'm having a hard time crediting Stew for the pick more than Owen's gutsier selection of Reyes in the middle of the round.  After multiple injury-plagued and power-depleted seasons, Owen (after not keeping him) went back to the well one more time, and is being rewarded with a mess of stolen bases on top of OBP/SLG production from the SS slot higher than the first basemen and outfielders that went in the same round.

I struggled with the Matt Cain pick because while Cain's having a very nice Cain-like season, he came off the board ahead of Verlander.  Yahoo's ranking system has him sandwiched between Brian Wilson and Josh Johnson, on the second page.  Between RP and DL is no place for your best pitcher.

However, using the hindsight rule, the Cain pick still works out better than Jayson Werth, Brandon Phillips, and Buster Posey, all of whom I think are playing at free agency levels or worse right now.

Round 5

14: (7) Jacoby Ellsbury - OF - .303/.366/.461 55-39-25 (Owen)
13: (2) Jered Weaver - SP - 9-4, 106K, 1.97/0.93 (Mike)
12: (1) Cole Hamels - SP - 9-4, 108K, 2.49/0.96 (Tom)
11: (12) Shaun Marcum - SP - 7-2, 86K, 2.95/1.06 (Stew)
10: (6) Zack Greinke - SP - 7-2, 80K, 4.77/1.16 (Chris T)
9: (9) Brian McCann - C - .300/.379/.512 27-43-2 (Fabian)
8: (10) Yovani Gallardo - SP - 9-4, 94K, 3.92/1.41 (Shawn)
7: (5) Mat Latos - SP - 4-8, 76K, 4.22/1.40 (Ryan)
6: (13) Ichiro Suzuki - OF - .273/.319/.326 40-21-19 (Austin)
5: (3) Roy Oswalt - SP - 4-6, 42K, 3.79/1.33 (James)
4: (11) Carlos Marmol - RP - 16 SV, 45K, 2.62/1.28 (Kyle)
3: (4) Dan Uggla - 2B - .177/.244/.334 33-27-1 (Joe)
2: (14) Derek Jeter - SS - .260/.324/.324 39-20-7 (Chris J)
1: (8) Kendrys Morales - 1B - .000/.000/.000 0-0-0 (Paul)

This was a strange round, neatly divided into seven good picks and seven poor ones, made easier by ranking from the bottom up.  Morales is clearly the goat of the draft, after having another season-ending surgery.  There was a fierce battle between Jeter and Uggla for next worst, but I decided that at least Uggla still has some upside, whereas this is probably the true value of Jeter to fantasy.  Ichiro and Marmol had another contest of futility, with Ichiro's speed winning versus the fact that there were 31.5 remaining closers available.

Kudos to Owen for winning the round yet again by listening to the tintinabulation of his giant steel balls and taking Ellsbury way before every single draft guide suggested he should go.  Perhaps he's benefitting from unsustainable half-seasons, but until Ellsbury stops hitting homeruns and Reyes pulls six hamstrings he'll be enjoying Ethier-level rate stats along with league-leading stolen base totals.

Mike and Tom benefitted more from draft position than sage picks but I still had to credit them for the right calls (making up for last round's second basemen) above the other pitchers and positional players taken this round.  Greinke's ERA looks awful, but under the hood his peripherals are great, and he's already matched Marcum's win/strikeout/WHIP production despite missing a month.  Marcum still gets the higher nod for the ERA and the later pick, though.

Round 6

14: (10) Paul Konerko - 1B - .324/.395/.588 39-60-1 (Ryan)
13: (4) Jay Bruce - OF - .274/.346/.507 46-49-6 (Kyle)
12: (8) Mike Stanton - OF - .259/.341/.533 39-44-1 (Owen)
11: (6) Elvis Andrus - SS - .278/.323/.347 45-30-22 (Fabian)
10: (11) Mariano Rivera - RP - 20 SV, 26K, 1.78/0.99 (Joe)
9: (2) Brian Wilson - RP - 23 SV, 35K, 2.50/1.36 (Austin)
8: (14) Jimmy Rollins - SS - .260/.332/.378 46-31-15 (Tom)
7: (3) Max Scherzer - SP - 9-3, 83K, 4.61/1.44 (Stew)
6: (9) Carlos Santana - C - .228/.359/.407 34-33-3 (Chris T)
5: (1) Neftali Feliz - RP - 14 SV, 19K, 3.18/1.31 (Chris J)
4: (7) Joakim Soria - RP - 13 SV, 31K, 4.24/1.26 (Paul)
3: (13) Nick Swisher - OF - .245/.366/.412 35-38-1 (Mike)
2: (5) Francisco Liriano - SP - 4-7, 61K, 4.98/1.37 (Shawn)
1: (12) Jonathan Broxton - RP - 7 SV, 10K, 5.68/1.89 (James)

With the closer rush in a full and desperately early swing, I had a hard time evaluating what I think were relative values beween RP and all other positions.  The sucktitude of the closer rush battled with the mediocrity of some of the positional picks here.

Ryan is the clear winner with Konerko, getting elite production at a now-depleted position.  Stanton and Bruce are perfectly decent power outfielders with tons of upside to improve upon their already serviceable numbers.  Andrus is good counting stats at a weak position.  The rest of the round is kind of a mess.

Scores after rounds 4-6:

1: Owen (40)
2: Stew (31)
3: Chris T (28)
4: Fabian (27)
5: Austin (24)
5: Ryan (24)
7: Tom (22)
8: Mike (21)
8: Kyle (21)
8: Joe (21)
11: Chris J (18)
12: Paul (15)
13: James (12)
14: Shawn (11)