Thursday, February 24, 2011

League of Ordinary Gentlemen: Mock Draft round 2

Quickly revisiting round 1:

King Felix
Beltre
Cruz
McCutchen
Uggla
Dunn
Choo
Bautista
V-Mart
JoJo
Werth
Posey
Hamels
Jeter

Round 2

15.  Tom:   Brian McCann (C) - One declining middle infielder is enough to start the draft.  Given our scoring setup I really can't make a solid case for most of the "value" (by ESPN cheat sheet) picks here like Brandon Phillips (.330/.430 with declining speed in the best lineup of his career?) or Ichiro (Brett Gardner numbers in a worse lineup) or Michael Young (are you banking on 2009 numbers or 2010 at age 34?).   McCann seems like a better fit, even though I'd be comfortable waiting longer on a catcher (Soto, Santana, Montero).  You can bank a .375 OBP and SLG somewhere in the .450-.500 range with decent counting stats and feel comfortable.

16.  Mike:  Jered Weaver (SP) - Fairly confidant that the best pitcher available by the time this swings back around will be Max Scherzer, and I'd feel more comfortable gambling on first basemen, catchers, and outfielders later than picking through the middle tier of pitchers.

17.  Joe:  Alex Rios (OF) - If I'm Joe here, I start to feel the pressure to flesh out my outfield.  Specifically I want to start thinking about speed, because the list of outfielders who give you SB without sacrificing other categories is slim.  In a tough choice between Ethier and Rios, I think Rios's 30-SB potential with decent SLG behind it, in an improved CWS lineup, is a better bet.  Also, ignoring Ichiro, he's the value pick.

18.  James:  David Price (SP) - There's another interesting opinion split here between Price, Gallardo, Carpenter, and Liriano.  ESPN is convinced that Carpenter is going to have a monster year, with equivalent value to Verlander.  Yahoo instead thinks David Price is the last 5-star pitcher available, drafted ahead of Verlander on average.  While I think James might feel some subtle subconscious pressure to take the Cardinals guy, the younger arm is the better pick.  Despite playing in the AL East on with arguably a worse lineup supporting him, Price's ERA and WHIP upside beats Gallardo's strikeout rate or Liriano's lineup.  It's also worth noting here that this stupid cheat sheet has Price going AFTER Mariano Rivera.

19.  Chris:  Desperately unhappy with seeing Price and Weaver go.  I'm not taking Phillips again.  I can wait on 3B.  Don't want Rollins.  I'd consider pissing in someone's cheerios and taking Kendry Morales here for the utility slot and a hedge against Teixeira's notoriously painful starts, but his ankle's not 100% and he may not even be ready for opening day.  Learned a lesson last year about filling the outfield too early.  Too soon for catcher.  Michael Young may pick up 2B eligibility at some point during the season, or he could get traded to the Royals or something.  Aramis Ramirez is a big risk in a shitty lineup.  Carpenter?  FUCK. 

This is precisely the pick where I need to hear other arguments.  Putting this on pause until I can get the roundtable up and running.

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