Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Draft Analysis pt2

Round 7

14: (6) Rickie Weeks - 2B - .290/.360/.498 56-33-7 (Chris T)
13: (13) Trevor Cahill - SP - 8-5, 80K, 3.09/1.29 (Austin)
12: (10) Starlin Castro - SS - .325/.355/.446 43-37-10 (Shawn)
11: (1) Heath Bell - RP - 21 SV, 25K, 2.53/1.13 (Tom)
10: (3) Madison Bumgarner - SP - 4-9, 77K, 3.84/1.36 (James)
9: (7) Jonathan Papelbon - RP - 14 SV, 40K, 3.90/1.17 (Owen)
8: (2) Ryan Dempster - SP - 5-6, 92K, 5.31/1.49 (Mike)
7: (8) Clay Buchholz - SP - 6-3, 60K, 3.48/1.29 (Paul)
6: (4) Stephen Drew - SS - .271/.343/.417 42-42-4 (Joe)
5: (5) Alexei Ramirez - SS - .284/.341/.413 46-35-3 (Ryan)
4: (9) Chad Billingsley - SP - 7-6, 90K, 4.22/1.49 (Fabian)
3: (14) Ted Lilly - SP - 5-7, 68K, 4.63/1.26 (Chris J)
2: (11) Wandy Rodriguez - SP - 5-4, 69K, 3.21/1.31 (Kyle)
1: (12) Alex Rios - OF - .224/.275/.332 36-20-5 (Stew)

I'll take the victory lap here for the middle infielder slugging .500 ahead of a monster lineup.  This is an interesting round for the shortstop comparisons, to note how Ramirez and Drew are basically the same player right now.  Starlin Castro is the surprise of the group clearly, though I'm not sure he can sustain the BA that's sustaining his OBP.

I hated Austin's Cahill pick at the time, but it's looking like a worthwhile investment after the fact, especially considering my later pick of Brett Anderson and how that's worked out.  Based on preseason ranks, Alex Rios should have been the steal of the round, so I'm happy to see karmic comeuppance for Stew's Bautista pick.

Ryan Dempster may look high on this list when comparing his ratio stats to the other pitchers, but I've decided that the 20-30 strikeout difference is significant now and will be more significant when he ends the year at his usual 200 K.  He's also been better lately than at the start of the season, so that gets the nod over an injured Buchholz and the borderline guys at the bottom of the round.

Round 8

14: (1) Curtis Granderson - OF - .276/.360/.572 68-55-12 (Chris J)
13: (14) Michael Young - 2B/3B - .323/.358/.481 34-53-4 (Tom)
12: (2) Shane Victorino - OF - .292/.359/.498 47-29-12 (Austin)
11: (8) John Axford - RP - 20 SV, 46K, 2.55/1.33 (Owen)
10: (5) Huston Street - RP - 23 SV, 32K, 3.53/1.18 (Shawn)
9: (13) Colby Lewis - SP - 6-7, 77K, 4.44/1.26 (Mike)
8: (12) Drew Stubbs - OF - .255/.326/.404 54-32-23 (James)
7: (3) Martin Prado - 2B/3B - .277/.324/.438 36-33-2 (Stew)
6: (7) Francisco Rodriguez - RP - 20 SV, 41K, 3.65/1.46 (Paul)
5: (10) BJ Upton - OF - .224/.311/.390 40-41-20 (Ryan)
4: (11) Ricky Nolasco - SP - 4-4, 77K, 4.44/1.37 (Joe)
3: (9) Brett Anderson - SP - 3-6, 61K, 4.00/1.33 (Chris T)
2: (4) Andrew Bailey - RP - 5 SV, 7K, 0.96/0.75 (Kyle)
1: (6) Edinson Volquez - SP - 4-3, 75K, 5.77/1.68 (Fabian)

Not much to say here, other than that being hurt (Anderson, Bailey) is still better than actively harming your team (Volquez).  In overall fantasy Anderson hasn't been awful, since he compiled those strikeouts fairly quickly without destroying my ratios, and has allowed me to start other people in the weeks he's missed.  As a singular pick, however, there's obvious disappointment, and who knows whether he'll recover to be useful again this season.

I'm crediting Chris with the best pick despite being at the top of the round because Granderson wasn't an obvious choice.  In overall value, I think the guys slugging .480 are always just a little better than mid-tier closers, but Axford and Street weren't bad picks at all.  Colby Lewis was my big question mark in terms of ranking.  I gave Mike a little extra credit for picking at the back end of the round, and I think his category contributions narrowly edge those of Stubbs and Upton.

Round 9

14: (11) Ben Zobrist - 2B/OF - .271/.351/.481 52-40-7 (Kyle)
13: (14) Chris Young - OF - .257/.324/.486 51-42-9 (Chris J)
12: (5) Tim Hudson - SP - 6-6, 70K, 3.51/1.11 (Ryan)
11: (10) José Valverde - RP - 18 SV, 32K, 2.43/1.23 (Shawn)
10: (7) Jonathan Sanchez - SP - 4-5, 92K, 3.81/1.42 (Owen)
9: (6) Aramis Ramirez - 3B - .289/.337/.446 39-37-0 (Chris T)
8: (8) Billy Butler - 1B - .302/.402/.435 33-34-1 (Paul)
7: (13) Corey Hart - OF - .271/.355/.480 25-22-2 (Austin)
6: (9) Brett Gardner - OF - .281/.360/.420 39-18-16 (Fabian)
5: (12) John Danks - SP - 3-8, 65K, 4.21/1.35 (Stew)
4: (4) Geovany Soto - C - .227/.322/.416 22-18-0 (Joe)
3: (1) Jorge Posada - C - .234/.327/.411 17-25-0 (Tom)
2: (2) Matt Thornton - RP - 2 SV, 27K, 3.86/1.79 (Mike)
1: (3) Delmon Young - OF - .256/.281/.324 21-20-1 (James)

Brutal first four picks down there at the bottom.  I ranked the catchers above Thornton and Young because they still have some room for improvement, at a scarce position.  Hart's coming into some nice stats but is penalized for missing a quarter of the season (and I'm kicking myself for not picking him up when I had the opportunity).

This list probably looks different five games ago (or even yesterday) when Aramis Ramirez's SLG was at .409 instead of .446.  That said, he's a notorious second-half batter, and his contributions at a battered position still beat Butler's at 1B, or Gardner.

Updated scores:

1: Owen (70)
2: Austin (56) [+3]
3: Chris T (54)
4: Tom (49) [+3]
5: Chris J (48) [+6]
6: Ryan (46) [-1]
7: Stew (44) [-5]
7: Shawn (44) [+7]
9: Mike (40) [-1]
10: Kyle (39) [-2]
11: Fabian (38) [-7]
12: Paul (36)
13: Joe (35) [-5]
14: James (31) [-1]

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