Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Draft Analysis pt3

Round 10

14: (4) Josh Beckett - SP - 6-2, 79K, 1.86/0.92 (Kyle)
13: (11) Jhoulys Chacin - SP/RP - 8-5, 92K, 3.10/1.15 (Joe)
12: (9) JJ Putz - RP - 21 SV, 32K, 2.65/0.94 (Chris T)
11: (1) Jeremy Hellickson - SP - 7-7, 66K, 3.18/1.16 (Chris J)
10: (2) Francisco Cordero - RP - 15 SV, 26K, 1.57/0.84 (Austin)
9: (6) Carlos Pena - 1B - .227/.348/.462 35-42-0 (Fabian)
8: (13) Mike Napoli - C/1B - .221 /.344/.493 24-25-1 (Mike)
7: (3) Ian Desmond - 2B/SS - .227/.266/.318 31-22-20 (Stew)
6: (5) Nick Markakis - OF - .277/.329/.360 32-30-6 (Shawn)
5: (8) Pablo Sandoval - 1B/3B - .290/.333/.435 15-16-1 (Owen)
4: (14) Vladimir Guerrero - OF - .282/.314/.388 25-28-0 (Tom)
3: (12) Casey McGehee - 3B - .227/.280/.316 23-33-0 (James)
2: (7) Jason Bay - OF - .234/.312/.313 25-16-6 (Paul)
1: (10) Phil Hughes - SP - 0-1, 3K, 13.94/2.23 (Ryan)

The length of Sandoval's injury hurts his ranking here, though he looks to be heading into a decent second-half.  I just can't justify putting him ahead of Markakis given the difference in the counting stats and that Owen's playing him at first base.  Conversely, Napoli will theoretically be plugged into Mike's catcher slot, where he sees a value boost.

The Desmond ranking feels high, but the stolen bases are significant given current middle-infield output, and the rest of the list below him is equally poor (or hurt, in Sandoval's case).  Putz over Cordero for the extra saves and getting him later in the round, but these were two decent closer grabs.

Round 11

14: (2) Adam Lind - 1B/OF - .314/.362/.580 33-49-1 (Mike)
13: (7) Craig Kimbrel - RP - 21 SV, 61K, 2.77/1.15 (Owen)
12: (14) Drew Storen - RP - 19 SV, 32K, 2.90/0.99 (Chris J)
11: (8) Mark Reynolds - 3B - .227/.356/.463 38-38-5 (Paul)
10: (5) Chris PĂ©rez - RP - 19 SV, 20K, 2.45/1.23 (Ryan)
9: (11) Leo Nunez - RP - 21 SV, 35K, 3.31/1.22 (Kyle)
8: (6) Colby Rasmus - OF -  .260/.346/.421 48-29-5 (Chris T)
7: (12) Matt Garza - SP - 4-6, 88K, 4.07/1.33 (Stew)
6: (3) Matt Weiters - C - .262/.316/.408 26-33-0 (James)
5: (10) Aaron Hill - 2B - .247/.291/.339 19-30-10 (Shawn)
4: (1) Brad Lidge - RP - 0 SV, 0K, N/A (Tom)
3: (13) Ryan Franklin - RP - 1 SV, 17K, 7.90/1.76 (Austin)
2: (4) Pedro Alvarez - 3B - .208/.283/.304 12-10-1 (Joe)
1: (9) Brandon Lyon - RP - 4 SV, 6K, 11.48/2.40 (Fabian)

Like many of Mike's serendipitous draft picks, Lind was a late steal.  The developing Mark Reynolds resurgence is nice for Baltimore and Canada.  Of course my pick stopped hitting after April and is probably going to get benched next week for the other outfielder I have who himself was just temporarily benched by his manager for similarly not hitting in June.  It only goes down from here.

Lidge over Lyon because at least Lidge on your DL didn't destroy your stats for three weeks.  The bottom four were nearly interchangeable, with the major difference being the degree of media schadenfreude on display during their respective collapses or absences.

Round 12

14: (7) Ricky Romero - SP - 7-7, 96K, 2.74/1.16 (Paul)
13: (1) Miguel Montero - C - .277/.349/.471 37-40-1 (Chris J)
12: (8) Daniel Hudson - SP - 9-5, 87K, 3.58/1.19 (Owen)
11: (5) Carlos Quentin - OF - .258/.358/.534 34-49-1 (Shawn)
10: (4) Jaime Garcia - SP - 6-3, 88K, 3.06/1.22 (Kyle)
9: (6) CJ Wilson - SP - 7-3, 97K, 3.17/1.23 (Fabian)
8: (11) Michael Bourn - OF - .282/.351/.390 50-26-33 (Joe)
7: (2) Howie Kendrick - 2B/OF - .301/.358/.479 38-26-8 (Austin)
6: (13) Joel Hanrahan - RP - 22 SV, 31K, 1.24/0.94 (Mike)
5: (10) Kevin Gregg - RP - 14 SV, 24K, 3.26/1.45 (Ryan)
4: (3) Jonny Venters - RP - 3 SV, 51K, 1.29/0.94 (Stew)
3: (12) Grady Sizemore - OF - .225/.294/.445 23-20-0 (James)
2: (14) Aubrey Huff - 1B/OF - .244/.293/.387 24-39-3 (Tom)
1: (9) Rafael Furcal - SS - .212/.246/.273 7-5-2 (Chris T)

It frustrates me to now fully understand how good this draft round was, and how I essentially wasn't part of it.  I wanted to take a pitcher this round, but after seeing all the top names go immediately before me (including the crushing Hudson pick) I think I let myself get flustered, and made a panicked positional fill instead of getting someone good.  I could have had Hanrahan and maybe halved my blown save total on the year.  I am now angry.

Updated scores:

1: Owen (100)
2: Chris J (84) [+3]
3: Austin (76) [-1]
4: Chris T (75) [-1]
5: Kyle (72) [+5]
6: Mike (68) [+3]
7: Shawn (66)
8: Paul (63) [+4]
9: Ryan (62) [-3]
9: Stew (62) [-2]
11: Tom (59) [-7]
12: Joe (58) [+1]
13: Fabian (57) [-2]
14: James (43)

Consider this the ASB, midway through the contest.  Owen has a commanding lead, but will it hold up in the second half?  Will Tom halt his freefall into the draft dumpster?  Who drafts a Cy Young candidate in round 13 and how many more points does he earn than Mike's pick?  (Hint: the answer is 13)

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