There are some advantages to being woken up at 5am.

Thanks to my son's preference for being awake during the pre-dawn hours, I was able to get the jump on the league on Giants prospect phenom Buster Posey, who was called up today.  In 47 games in the PCL, Posey's hitting .349/.442/.552 with 31 runs and 32 RBIs, which is about standard for any big-league ready prospect in AAA, so the numbers are difficult to get too excited about.  It's worth noting that this line is nearly identical to his 3-year minor league career figures, so he's been consistent, at least.

To make room for Posey on the roster, I had to make a decision between two equally awful weighted players who've been dreadful all May, Carlos Lee and Geovany Soto.  I think Lee has a 5% chance of seeing upside and returning to some form (he's been demonstrating power recently).  Soto's batting .104 over the past three weeks after getting his OBP over .500 earlier in the month.  Goodbye Geovany!

Reports are that Posey will see a heavy dose of first base action, meaning Huff shifts into the outfield and either Rowand or Schierholtz gets benched.  I think this could help his initial offensive numbers, and should represent an upgrade over Soto, at least in the short term.  He'll also play five games a week, which Soto wasn't guaranteed.  If I had to guess at a spot in the lineup, he probably starts 7th and slowly works his way up to 6th or maybe even 5th.

Anyway, the Posey era should start tonight.  Can't wait to have a reason to watch the Giants.

Quick notes

I don't have a whole lot of time to write, but I'd like to mention that I at least nailed the Chipper Jones prediction, and came pretty damn close on the Garcia one.  Matusz has sadly gone the way of Scherzer, but I needed to maintain z-parity, so I picked Scherzer back up.  He's apparently "discovered" 5 of his missing mph from a simple mechanics tweak, which I think says a lot about the Tigers pitching coach and his inability to find and fix this matter when Max was still on the team.  Worst case scenario, Matusz for Scherzer is a 1-for-1 exchange of bad AL ERA-bombs.

This balances out Jaime Garcia, posting his second consecutive shaky but effective six innings of no-decision shutout baseball.  His ERA (1.14) matches his WHIP, which I guess is always a positive sign.  Of his nine starts, the Cardinals have lost five of them.  In those five losses, they've scored a combined four runs.  Combined.  In five games.  In which Garcia has given up only three earned runs.  He really should be at least 8-1.  Of the top ninety (90) pitchers in baseball by ERA, only Roy Oswalt, Clayton Richard, Brad Penny, Dallas Braden, Kevin Millwood, and Wandy Rodriguez get less run support.

Similarly, the Reds have lost Mike Leake's last two starts, in which he's given up only one earned run each.  On the season, Leake now has four 1-ER starts that resulted in no decision.  He's getting it done partially by only issuing 10 walks in his last 46.1 innings, after 12 in his first 13.2.

Note to self:

No matter how good you think the first batch of summer fruit smells and feels in May, it's still going to taste awful.  I just had a nectarine that smelled like the genuine ripe product, but tasted like if you took a box Honey Bunches of Oats with Real Peaches (a Post product), dumped out all the cereal and the plastic bag, ripped up the carboard box into small bits and soaked it overnight in a solution of pine sol and fruity lavatory air freshener, strained, and then consumed the final mash.

5/26 Predictions

An attempt to predict my nightly fantasy results.

Soto:  0/4, 1 walk
Texeira:  1/4, 1 walk, 1 run, 2 strikeouts
Phillips:  1/5
Freese:  0-5, 1 strikeout
Drew:  1/4, 2 strikeouts
Braun:  2/5, double, 1 rbi
Crawford:  3/4, 1 walk, 2 SB
Abreu:  1/3, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 run
Jones:  0/4, 1 walk

Matusz:  6.0 IP, 7 hits, 2 walks, 3 ER, 4 K, no decision
Garcia:  5.2 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 0 ER, 5 K

Broxton:  1.0 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 2 K, SV

This Should Happen

When Wizards initially launched D&D 4th Edition, we were promised robust online tools to assist campaigns in facilitating information gathering and actual gameplay online from the D&D Insider portal.  In addition to the repository of source books, the character builder, the monster database, we were told that they were also developing an online gametable which would link into their monster/rules databases and provide a complete virtual solution for online D&D nerdcraft.  It was supposed to be ready any day now, and they'd gladly accept your subscription payments anytime.

To date, that online table/map never materialized.  Perhaps they felt that opening up all the online tools would undercut their physical product's appeal.  Perhaps Wizards put their creative efforts into assisting with the D&D Online MMO, which was largely a failure, and even now with its free basic play and microtransaction expansions it's still not very popular.  Personally I think this is because they tried to shoehorn D&D branding into what is by all accounts a World of Warcraft gameplay within a WoW-clone environment.  It wasn't really D&D as we tabletop gamers know it, but just D&D-flavored Warcraft.

Meanwhile, multiple online tools have been developed (free and for-pay) that somewhat approximate the original D&D Insider vision of an interactive map.  Some have even integrated D&D and other tabletop game rulesets into the program, and offer updated tile and pog graphics to get as close to the D&D experience as possible.  But they're pretty cold and sterile, don't have integrated voice options, and don't necessarily have all the customization options you'd like.

I think there's a market somewhere between these two points, with grid-based turn-based DM-run combat, but within the vibrant terrain and environment of a persistent MMO universe.  Here's what it should do:

• Have artistically crafted and diverse 3D regions stitched together, very much like World of Warcraft, to create one large setting.  They could even just say "We're implementing Eberron."  They'd have the towns, the forests and deserts, mountains and magical marshes and basically every fantasy mini-setting you could dream of.  Transit would occur in the world in realtime.  There'd be plenty of caves and ruins and strongholds to provide opportunities for the DM to create encounters, but also distinct permanent towns staffed with NPCs.
• All non-combat situations would occur within the MMO.  Your party riding horseback between villages could pass other adventurers, and you can yell at them, or RP with them, or encounter them next week in a tavern to share stories, or maybe work with their DM to have a combat.
• Combat and  DM-controlled roleplay with NPCs would occur within "instances", which are like private versions of the zone that only that DM's party can play within.  So no other players in the MMO can interrupt your combat (unless you invite them into the DM's game party) or occupy the NPCs your DM needs to tell you about Plot Hook B.
• The DM player can, in realtime or saved in advance, generate combat on a grid overlay on the 3D map, simply by pulling monsters from context menus and placing them on the grid.  All the game rules and physics could be handled by the game itself, but the DM would choose enemy actions and movement.
• The DM can also take control of any NPC, to increase immersion and roleplay options.
• Experience and rewards would be handled either by the DM manually assigning them, or via standard rules and random rolls by the game.  Similarly, NPC shopkeepers could have their item lists manually chosen or modified from stock lists based on the type of town, type of store, and party power level.

Tell me this wouldn't be mindblowing.  All the control of an online gaming tool, but refined within the awesome MMO gamespace.  You could even recruit replacement players in the game's local taverns (lobbies) or have your players hire mercenaries (other PCs with nothing to do) for adventures.  Players could barter for items on their own time with other players while the DM roleplays a split scene or takes three minutes to setup a random encounter in the alley.  Bored on a tuesday night?  Fire up the MMO and offer your services for a few hours.  Rate your favorite DMs!  DMs, rate your favorite players!  Maybe the developer could even code in some encounters that wouldn't require an active DM, so you could get into a little solo action, or just band together with some bored people for a quick jaunt into Adventure C.

The amount of money I would pay for this game would make Blizzard shit their pants.

PLASCHKE!!!!

I was in the middle of a questioning Joe Posnanski's objectivity on the subject of free agency yesterday, based on this blog post where he scolds President Obama for daring to suggest LeBron James should go to the Bulls, but was interrupted by work and had to set my response aside.  Then Bill Plaschke beat me to the punch late last night.  Bill covers the Obama-as-true-fan angle pretty well, but I think the more interesting spin here is on why Joe Posnanski felt compelled to call out Obama for saying what every sports-minded human being from Chicago has been saying for eight months.

Joe went to great lengths to say that it's not about politics or the propriety of neutrality, but rather that we should empathize with Cleveland and the region's idolatry of their one sports star, and how would we feel if we had to watch our stars leave for greener pastures.  This strikes me as a very Kansas City point of view.  I would imagine it's been hard on Royals fans to watch their best players of the past..15-20 years (Beltran, Damon) leave at the height of their careers.  The last time the Chiefs signed a major free agent was Joe Montana in his twilight.  Joe's marking days off the calendar until Greinke's departure.

No wonder Joe sympathizes with Cleveland.  Though I wonder how he'd react if the Royals were able to coax, say, Evan Longoria away from the Rays.

The Celtics

Their strategy for winning game 4 is literally to flop up the arena.  The Manu.  It's like Euro soccer.  Garnett had an arm brush the back of his head, and he doubled-over in fake pain, and got the call three seconds after the fact by wincing a whole lot.  Rondo's spent more time on the ground this quarter than on his feet.  I don't necessarily have anything against the Celtics aside from generic NY-BOS hate, so I don't think I'm being particularly biased in my observations.  Their defensive strategy is to fall on the ground every time they feel contact.  THIS is the reason the NBA can't seem to grow its brand (the league as a whole pulls in only about half of MLB, and slightly more than half of the NFL's total despite higher total attendance figures).  Entire team strategies can be built around either inducing bad officiating calls, or anticipating a lack of calls, dominantly due to home court pressure and favoritism towards superstars unlike anything seen in baseball.

If the NBA wonders why they're the only professional sports league that's constantly subjected to collusion conspiracy theories (the 1985 draft's "frozen envelope", 2002's Kings-Lakers series officiating, anything Tim Donaghy says) it's because of the way refs call fouls in Boston, and because of the 42-20 free throw differential in Lakers-Suns game 3.  It's virtually impossible to watch a single basketball game without griping about the officiating, and not just over isolated incidents.

Garnett, Pierce, and Davis have as many fouls combined as Dwight Howard and Vince Carter do individually.  Vince Carter has four fouls  The one player in the league that avoids contact at all costs has four fouls.  That tells you everything you need to know about this game and perhaps this series.  Hope you're looking forward to a 2008 Finals rematch.  I know David Stern is.

Last Week

Not Awful

Brandon Phillips:  .286/.375/.536, 7 runs and a stolen base
David Freese:  .360/.429/.480, 4 runs, 6 RBI
Carl Crawford:  .393/.433/.571, 9 runs, 5 RBI, 4 SB

Awful

Mark Texeira:  .138/.242/.172, 3 runs, 1 RBI, 376346523874523745 LOB
Geovany Soto:  .000/.235/.000 in 13 ABs, 1 run.
Brian Matusz:  2.1 IP, 27.00 ERA, 3.86 WHIP

I just can't have one week without a cataclysmic performance from one or two key players completely ruining two of my categories.  Matusz bombed my ERA and WHIP, and would have been the difference in strikeouts if he'd pitched just four innings (not that I was competing with Mike's Ubaldo-esque numbers), and Texiera had ten thousand missed opportunities to knock in runs.

For the record, Holland goes up against the Twins this week, who manage to drop double-digits almost every time my pitchers face them.

The Fantastic Four, update 1

Roughly in order of relative success, but it's all pretty close.

John Ely:  7 IP, 2 ER, 5 hits, no walks, 8 K, win, one more start this week.
Mike Leake:  6 IP, 1 ER, 5 hits, 1 walk, 6 K, no decision.
Kris Medlen:  6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 hits, 2 walks, 6 K, no decision, one more start.
Jason Vargas:  6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 hits, 2 walks, 2 K, no decision.

Ely's win was against Houston, so I'm not sure how strongly to count it.  Leake saw 7 runs cross the plate in the 9th inning to deny him his win.  Vargas and Medlen pitched well in close games.  There are no losers here, unlike, say, Brian Matusz (2.1 IP, 7 ER).  I'm beginning to believe in transitive pitching, as this happened immediately after I dumped Scherzer.

Too Soon?

It has been brought to my attention that Rand Paul, despite having adopted all of his father's economic libertarian positions, supports federally banning abortion instead of letting states choose, doesn't believe in drug decriminalization, and has hinted at future support of aggressive detention policies for terror suspects.  Maybe he is just a partisan Tea Party hack after all.  I mean, he's in favor of spending cuts across the board, but not Medicare doctor payments. 

Paul — who says 50% of his patients are on Medicare — wants to end cuts to physician payments under a program now in place called the sustained growth rate, or SGR. “Physicians should be allowed to make a comfortable living,” he told a gathering of neighbors in the back yard of Chris and Linda Wakild, just behind the 10th hole of a golf course.

Classic.

When Keeping it Real Goes Wrong

If you aren't familiar with Rand Paul, then you don't torture yourself with the daily digestion of political blogs, and I salute you and your common sense.  He's the son of famed libertarian and multi-year presidential also-ran Ron Paul (R, TX-14).  Ron Paul has, at multiple times during his political career, called for our withdrawl from the UN and NATO, the elimination of the Federal Reserve, reinstitution of the Gold Standard (not just the normal standard, but actually using gold and silver coins/bars as as currency in leiu of paper representations), has written economics texts in the Austrian style, would eliminate the Department of Education and EPA if he had the power.  But he's not a partisan.  These are his earnest libertarian beliefs.  He was one of only three Republican representatives to vote against the Patriot Act.  He opposes the War on Drugs, DADT, torture, the death penalty, and the unitary executive, and supports habeus corpus rights of terror detainees.  These are all very consistent boilerplate libertarian opinions.  Liberty and states' rights above all else, with a heavy dose of non-regulated free market economics.

Which brings us to Rand Paul, newly primaried Republican senatorial candidate from Kentucky.  He's made recent comments about his personal rejection of Title II of the Civil Rights Act.  That's the one that prohibits private businesses operating in a public capacity (basically everything but country clubs) from discriminating against customers on various protected-class guidelines like race, religion, etc.  Similarly he's criticized the Americans with Disabilities Act for unfairly infringing upon private businesses who don't wish to cater to the physically disabled.  The premise of his argument here is that personal liberty trumps the outreach of the federal government, and businesses should have the freedom to discriminate however they wish, and that free market forces would adjudicate the economic outcome fairly.  That racism is inherently a personal choice, and the freedom to choose bigotry is a necessary component of freedom.

At first glance, I had to admit that, similar to his father's strict adherence to libertarian ideals, this is a ruthless but consistent spin on the civil rights movement.  Rand's willing to express his dislike for the practice of racism while simultaneously defending your freedom to manifest your racism.  If you're going all-in on the liberty-or-death argument, then this is a solid step in that particular direction.  However, like his father's economic opinions, I feel that this brand of cutthroat ideological libertarianism demonstrates a fundamental and perhaps intentional disconnect from the tribulations of the American population.  That these people shouldn't be responsible for our lawmaking.

Let me first explain from the economic side, where I can speak more competently.  Economic libertarians, aka free-marketeers, aka "of the Austrian school", are everywhere.  Anbody who's ever spent more than one but less than four semesters of college taking econ courses is probably an Austrian, whether or not they know enough to call themselves that.  Those introductory courses teach the basic framework of econ theory as being solely about perfect competition, equilibrium, and the maximization of GDP and profits, in a manner similar to how your 5th grade history lessons on the Pilgrims and early colonial times were probably heavy on the maize and Thanksgiving and teepees light on the indigenous warfare and religious proselytization at gunpoint.  It just so happens that the Austrian way of thinking is founded on free market equilibrium, the resulting efficiencies, and calculable results derived from an axiomatic framework focused primarily on the producer side.  So it's pretty natural for people with an abbreviated understanding of formal economic education to make the leap to Hayek and von Mises.  There's legitimate theory flowing from that base setup (in, say, the business cycle and capital theory spheres of study) but that circumscripted framework also lends itself to the type of person who seeks to vindicate their traditionally conservative opinions on economics by espousing free markets to an ideological extreme, focusing on producer benefits, claiming those producer benefits will result in trickle-down effects on the consumer side, and providing an outlet for the tinfoil hat types to get paranoid about paper money and stores of wealth.  The point I'm driving towards is that there's a certain political influence for those who lean towards the right to fall into Austrian prescripts, whether or not they understand what they're talking about.

And so we have the Paul family fighting the battle for the gold standard, pre-Depression-era cyclical deflationary spirals be damned, because they believe first and foremost in liberty, in life and in business, and that naturally flows into Austrian goldbuggyness.  It's not founded in any kind of rational analysis of GNP expansion versus monetary supply, or by comparative Real terms, but a simple dogmatic belief in some nebulous concept of liberty.  They want to abolish the Fed because it regulates...stuff.  The particular regulations aren't as important as the concept, as they understand it, of the distortionary effects of regulation from a philosophical standpoint, not one grounded in math or empiricism.

Now back to Rand's take on the Civil Rights Act.  He argues (and has since slightly backed down from, after the immediate media firestorm of his comments) that liberty and economic freedom trump the government's mandate to regulate equality.  While he specifies that he wouldn't personally discriminate against a black person, and wouldn't shop at a store that did, he feels the businessowner has the inherent human right to discriminate which cannot be stripped.  This is another dogmatic, ideological stand, and one that I find rather telling given that we only have centuries of actual real-world data of the result of what free-marketing our race relations would result in.  I enjoy Andrew Sullivan's response:

Worse, Paul's entirely abstract intellectual argument wrests pure principles out of an actual society, with actual historical atrocities, violence, oppression and contempt. That's why I cannot be a libertarian the way some others like Paul are. I do not believe you can reify an abstraction like liberty and separate it from the context - historical, cultural, moral - in which it lives and breathes and from which it emerged. I can believe in freedom and believe in equality of opportunity but I should be mature enough to see when there has to be a compromise between the two - and decide. On the issue of race in America, the libertarian right was proven wrong - morally, empirically wrong. Giving up the ancient and real freedom to discriminate was worth it - indeed morally and politically necessary for America to regain its soul.

I like this particularly because Sullivan is a self-described libertarian, who frequently bases his outraged reactions to government expansions and oversteps within the framework of freedom and the Declaration of Independence and etc, but even this Rand Paul thing is a step too far.  I think Sullivan's experiences as a homosexual in this country have given him some personal insight on the greater concept of civil rights and the battle between autonomy and equality.  In the face of increasing breathless libertarian cries from, say, the Tea Party epidemic, he's actually softened his Austrian tones over the years.  His go-to blog for conservative economic analysis is Bruce Bartlett, who on any given day this year could be mistaken for Paul Krugman, given what's coming out of the religiously libertarian camp lately.

Anyway, I just wanted to highlight what I consider to be a pretty dangerous political mindset.  Not one of partisan Republicanism, but ideological libertarianism.  That it supposedly anchors itself in philosophy instead of politics doesn't make it immune to callous and frankly dangerous conclusions that would result, as has been documented in our nation's not-too-distant history, in actual harm, monetary and physical.

News and Notes

The Reds scored three runs in the eighth, and one more in the ninth, to tie the game against the Atlanta Braves and continue their amazing comeback pace.  Unfortunately for the Reds, they occasionally have to deploy relief pitchers, and Nick Masset gave up two hits with two outs in the bottom of the 9th for the stunning Braves win and another vulture win for Billy Wagner, giving Mike his third closer W this week.

Speaking of wins, Jaime Garcia went five innings of shutout baseball against the Marlins, and then immediately lost the decision when Blake Hawksworth loaded the bases to start the 6th.  Thanks bullpen.

While we're on the extended subject of bad bullpens, Boone Logan and Mark Melancon combined to gift Tampa Bay four runs in the 8th inning, which ended up being the final difference after Andy Sonnanstine gave four runs back to the Yankees in the bottom of the 9th for a 10-6 final.

Also, Chris Ray recalled his allegiances by surrendering a game-tying run to the Orioles in the 8th inning.  Baltimore returned the gesture of goodwill by allowing Texas batters to occupy all three bases in the 9th and then serving up a sacrifice fly to Nelson Cruz for the walkoff pop-up.

And Kerry Wood gave up five runs in the 9th to KC for a very Wood-esque BS and L.  Tied 3-3 in the 8th, Esmil Rogers gave up four unearned runs with two outs, for a 7-3 Houston win over Colorado.

Matt Capps gave up a homerun to Tatis but somehow managed to hang onto the win against the Mets, who didn't start or even pinch hit David Wright in what ended up being just a 2-run game.  Brian Fuentes let Paul Konerko hit a homer in the 9th to cut the Angels lead to just one run, but preserved the save.  Bard gave up a run credited to Buchholz in the 9th inning of the Sox-Twins game, and then had men on first and second befor inducing a game-ending grounder from Jim Thome.

All of the runs in the Oakland-Detroit game were scored in the 7th inning or later.  Already down 7-1, Brandon Medders gave up six earned runs all by himself in the 8th inning to let Arizona have a 13-1 victory over SF.  Already down 8-5, the Dodgers Sherrill gave up two more bonus runs to the Padres in the top of the 9th inning.

Why I frequently hate watching the NBA

I've only started watching since the start of the 4th quarter, but I've already witnessed the LA Lakers manhandle the Suns for two separate non-calls, and then hurl themselves at the Suns defenders on the other side of the court.  Leandro Barbosa had a layup blocked, but was also clobbered in the neck by Lamar Odom, and got knocked to the ground with enough force that he landed in the photographer row six feet back from the baseline, and is currently bleeding profusely from his skull from the impact.  No foul call.

Meanwhile, Gasol is getting to the free throw line whenever someone in an orange jersey breathes in his direction.  Kobe Bryant just now drew Jared Dudley's 5th foul with his signature move:  Turn your body sideways, cradle the ball against your stomach with both arms, and twist your lead shoulder into your defender's chest like a corkscrew until one of the refs blows a whistle.  AND AGAIN Gasol drew a shooting foul literally without any actual body contact from a Suns player.  Stoudemire kind of jumped behind him, and the whistle blew.  This is around 4 minutes left in the 4th, if you want to check a replay.

The league's star teams just get far too many calls in their home arena.  Officiating is so egregiously subjective and uneven that every time I try to get sucked into a basketball game I end up turning it off in disgust and ignoring the league for another week.

FYI the league's worst offender is Rajon Rondo.  He scores at least 10 points a game by sprinting with the ball full speed directly into the nearest defender and jumping into his chest.  The defender either has to continue playing the game of basketball by accepting the leap and getting whistled for the foul while Rondo's foot is busy making prints on the guy's jersey, or bail out of the way to avoid the cheap call and let Rondo have his layup.  And now in 2010 he's added a new move:  When the Celtics are already in their halfcourt set and the direct charge strategy won't work, Rondo will run into the paint, carry the ball for two and a half steps while faking a pass, take a third step, and then jump off for a layup or 5-foot jumper.

Kobe's shoulder corkscrew is a close second, but only because 15% of the time he doesn't get the call, so he shoots an off balance fadeaway jumper anyway instead of bitching to the refs (and usually makes it).

Q: What's the problem now?

A:  My hitting sucks.  Part of this is self-inflicted, drafting corpses like Carlos Lee, or Brandon WTF Phillips with my first or second pick.  I don't really know what I was thinking.  Part of it is otherwise productive hitters, like Texeira and Chipper, having the worst slumps of their careers.  Geovany Soto has a .298/.463/.468 split but only 10 RBI.  Brandon Phillips spent the majority of the season batting 4th and has all of 11 RBI to show for it.  Texeira left, I don't know, seventeen thousand men on base last night, including a bases loaded situation.  Stephen Drew:  .298/.361/.475, batting third for the Diamondbacks, has 14 RBI.

I'm not knocking in runs.  I'm scoring them in spades, but my collection of largely 3-5 hitters isn't hitting with men on base.  My most productive guy right now is Bobby Abreu, and we know that isn't going to hold up.  Ryan Braun had his first RBI last night since May 8th.  Phillips doesn't have an RBI since May 5th.  Soto since May 7th.  Crawford has two RBI since May 6th.  Chipper Jones has two RBI since the 5th.  It's gotten so bad that Carlos Lee has the third most RBI on my team over the past ten games, including three last night, which don't count because I finally benched him and he finally fucking did something useful.

MLB TV semi-liveblog

7:07:  Roy Halladay just completely embarrassed Lastings Milledge and Andrew McCutchen, striking them out (without either one making contact at any point during the at-bat) like they were doing David Wright impressions.  I don't even know if it was fastballs or cutters or what, everything he throws right now has crazy horizontal movement.  Look at what Halladay did with his two-seam fastball (FT, the navy blue data points) in 2009.

7:25:  Checking in with Johan Santana against the Braves, I'm treated to two men on base and Brian McCann at the plate.  As I get up to check on dinner, I'm sure this won't end with a double and two earned runs.

7:27:  Santana strikes him out as I walk back in the room, just in time to witness Johan's pained grimace as he trots off the mound.  This game will not go well.

7:44:  If Henry Blanco and Chris Carter both go hitless tonight, there won't be a single Met in the starting lineup batting .300 or better.  This is also my first live look at Kris Medlen, my waiver wire pick last year and official pitcher of interest now that he's back in the starting rotation.  (Johan Santana just struck out trying to bunt.  Way to make contact, champ.)  For a strikeout pitcher, I was expecting a hulking beast like Tommy Hanson, so I'm surprised to see that he's more like a Oswalt/Wagner build, short with a quick leg kick.  He's got a very vertical arm slot too, which is apparently capable of striking out Jose Reyes with ease.   It'll be interesting to see what the Braves do with him when Jurrjens comes back.  They should punt Kawakami to the bullpen, but they might view Medlen's bullpen success as too valuable to gamble on Kawakami giving you quality pitches in the 7th inning.

7:55:  Johan Santana might be the best pitcher I've ever seen at getting batters 0-2 with filthy knee-buckling stuff and then failing to get the strikeout.  I've watched it happen three times already, and it's only the third inning.  Even when it gets to 1-2, as with Heyward just now, Johan can't put it away. 

8:00:  Fuck.  I just want to remind myself that I had the opportunity to take Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, and Ubaldo Jimenez, but no, I took the old guy coming off arm surgery.

8:05:  I watched a large chunk of the Phillies-Pirates game, switched back to the Mets, and it's still the third inning with two outs, now with two men on and Johan losing his control.  He had Melky 0-2 before nearly hitting him in the crotch with a fastball.  Now 1-2, here comes....a breaking ball over the middle of the plate that anybody but Melky Cabrera would have launched into the gap.  28 pitches for the inning, approaching 70 for the game.  If he makes it through the 5th I'll consider myself lucky.

8:14:  David Wright, welcome to your 15th consecutive game with a strikeout.

8:17:  Tyreke Evans gets surprised with an on-air question from the hostess of the NBA Draft Lottery.  If I'd been able to decipher Evans's microphoneless mumble, I'd give you a transcript of his generic non-answer.  I love the NBA lottery because it's the only stage in professional sports where random non-superstar team players can be seated between GMs, exchanging awkward platitudes for missing the top 5 when the envelopes are opened.  For the record, it's down to the Nets, Wizards, and Sixers for the opportunity to be the team that kills John Wall's early-career development.

8:26:  The Nets lose!  The Nets lose!  They will now miss Wall and Turner.  This Russian owner guy looks like he's ready to make people in the NBA back office disappear.  It also probably kills any Lebron-to-NJ/Brooklyn momentum that had been building after the embarrassing Cavs finish.

The Hoffplosion

No deep analysis here, but I want to point out that the Reds just scored 3 in the ninth inning (off soon-to-be-on-the-DL-for-suspicious-sounding-arm-injury Trevor Hoffman) for yet another late-game come from behind victory.

Bonus coverage:  Here's a picture of Prince Fielder's Girth Aura in action as Ryan Braun attempts to encompass Prince's magnitude.

The Curse of the Carlos

Concept stolen from a Yahoo poster.

Carlos Lee:  .300/.350/.500 stalwart batting .193 with no power.
Carlos Guillen:  Veteran slugger pulls a hamstring, loses his job to a no-name minor leaguer.
Carlos Zambrano:  Cubs ace currently posting a 7.07 ERA, demoted to middle reliever.
Carlos Pena:  Rays biggest slugger batting .181, has only one double and no HR in past ten games.
Carlos Quentin:  2008 MVP candidate now batting .180 with little pop.
Carlos Beltran:  Needs no explanation.
Carlos Gomez:  On the DL.
Carlos Delgado:  Had a .914 OPS in limited playing time last year, can't find a team interested in signing him.

Players in for a rude awakening:  Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Silva, Carlos Ruiz, Carlos Marmol.

Transitive Hitting

Mike, my opponent this week, expressed his frustrations at my team posting OBP and SLG numbers above .300 for the evening.  In retort I commented that it's only the illusion of hitting, because Abreu and Soto didn't play, which allowed their cosmic daily allotment of "hitting" to be redistributed through the remainder of my lineup, providing a greater concentration of hits over a smaller lineup.  I then deleted that from the Google chat window because it sounded retarded, and just offered some boilerplate bitching about playing time and my old/fat/bad players being well-rested.

However, I submit the following:

Ryan Braun, since returning from an arm bruise on the 14th:  3/17, no runs, no RBIs, no walks, no extra base hits.  Mark Teixiera over that same span:  7/16, 4 runs, 5 RBI, two walks, 3 extra base hits.

Chipper Jones since his Bursa Sac problem on the 11th:  2/12, no runs.  Brandon Phillips:  8/22, 6 runs.

Carlos Lee since his homer on May 9th:  3/24, 2 runs, 2 RBI, 1 extra base hit.  Carl Crawford:  10/30, 6 runs, 2 RBI, 3 extra base hits.

Geovany Soto since the 11th:  2/17, 1 run, no RBI, no walks.  Bobby Abreu:  5/16, 6 runs, 4 RBI, 4 walks.

I think they're just passing it back and forth.

Four up, four down.

Aggregate ERA of the four pitchers who were just dropped this weekend:  6.22
Aggregate ERA of their four replacements:  3.01

I guess I should be glad that I attended to my fantasy baseball needs sunday morning before I departed for a rousing afternoon of laundry.  Within seven hours of dropping Scherzer (a potential new euphemism for taking a dump) three more starters (two of which I highlighted in a previous post) were acquired.  It should be interesting to see who ends up with the best pick.

Jason Vargas (Ryan) has six quality starts in his seven games, but has a career 5.00 ERA, including his years in the minors.  My choice, Mike Leake, has no minor league record, but he also has six QS in seven starts, though in the NL instead of the AL West.  Kris Medlen (Chris J)  has mindblowing minor league stats but spotty MLB numbers and questionable endurance.  John Ely (Mike)  had a 3.71 career minors ERA, though he had a fantastic 2009 at AA (14-2 record, 2.82 ERA) and plays for the best team in this quartet.

Why Holland?

The Scherzer situation is getting a little out of control.  He's given up 21 runs in his last 13 innings.  His WHIP over that three-game span is 2.08, with only seven strikeouts for a guy drafted specifically for strikeouts.  On the season he's now 1-3.  Now these three awful games game after four very good games, but the downward trend is concerning.  His 6.08 K/9 is two-thirds of his K-rate in 2009.  His average fastball velocity is down from 94.2 in 2008 to 91.8 currently.

This is discouraging.  I can only hope that he's working through some mechanics issues, since Scherzer's offspeed stuff (which has also dropped in velocity) isn't that great.  Or maybe he just doesn't have the same stuff he had in the minors and in 2008.  Or maybe he, like Santana and Lackey, had the misfortune of being drafted onto the Carl's Bad Caverns roster, which apparently immediately causes a 3 mph drop in fastball speeds.

But so why Derek Holland?  First the reasons why I'm not sold on the available starters:

Jason Vargas:  He pitches for the Mariners, who are terrible and won't give him consistent run support.  He was also awful last year, due in part to his 86 mph fastball and the ease with which it bounces off bat-shaped pieces of wood and sails into the scattered remains of a Seattle home crowd.  There's absolutely no way he's maintaining his current ratios.  Batters are only hitting .203 against him.  That's going to change when he stops pitching against Baltimore and Los-Angeles-of-Anaheim.

Mike Leake:  I'm not sold on this Reds resurgence.  They've gotten three really strong performances in a row, from Arroyo, Cueto, and Bailey, but I've commented earlier on how spotty the run support is in Cincinnati.  While he has five quality starts in his six appearances, they all involved awful opponents like the Astros, Cubs, and Mets.  He gave up five runs to the Dodgers, and I don't want to own him blindly before I see if he can hold up against the Phillies, Brewers, Rockies, Marlins, etc.  I just need to see more, and nobody else in the league seems to be in a rush to stash him away.  His ratios are decent, but not overwhelming, and I'm looking for somebody that can replace SP3 numbers for a full season.

Tom Gorzelanny:  Here are Tom's ERAs from the past four major league seasons:  3.79, 3.88, 6.66, 5.55.  His career K/9 is 6.46, but this season he's up to 9.26.  You know why?  Because he's played his games against strikeout-heavy teams.  Reds twice (7th in the league), Arizona (1st), Mets (12th).  He's also played against the Nats and the Astros.  No wonder he's 3-0.  If he can credit his success to doubling the frequency with which he throws his slider, then great, but I want to see him do it against...the Phillies, Brewers, Rockies, Marlins, etc.  I'm not buying early on NL Central vultures unless your name starts with Jaime.

Kris Medlen:  I'm interested in his career 9.13 K/9, and I think the Braves offense will improve, but I don't have any guarantees that he can actually get through five innings every start.  He had endurance problems last year, and he only went 4.1 innings against the Phillies in his lone start this year.  Also, he doesn't exactly have much job security.  Jurrjens will come back eventually, and the Braves seem committed to Kawakami.  Perhaps in 2011 when he's had time to build up his arm strength, but I don't want to take risks on a pitcher that I'm not convinced will even qualify for wins on a regular basis.

So why Derek Holland, who was torched last year (6.12 ERA), pitches in the AL, and only one 2010 start to his name?  I guess it was just upside.  In 38 PCL innings in the minors this year he had a 0.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4-1 record, and only 1.6 BB/9.  These are essentially identical numbers to what Medlen and Tommy Hanson were doing in the minors last year.  He has a year of major league seasoning under his belt (like Scherzer did), plays for a team that should give him plenty of runs (like Scherzer), throws a fastball at 92 mph (Scherzer) 70% of the time (Scherzer), so I'm gambling with house money.  If it works out and Holland comes out of the gate throwing flames like Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson then awesome, but if he stumbles again, it's like Scherzer's still starting, and then I can pick up the next best guess all the way until Chapman starts killing my ratios.

In other words, I feel like I'm in enough of a pitching hole that I need to win the lottery, instead of doing the rational thing with a low-risk NL guy who's been consistent all year.

The best pitcher you'll never add to your fantasy roster.

He's avergaing almost seven innings per start.  Of his seven starts, four were quality, two only had 2 earned runs but he was lifted in the fifth inning, and one had 4 earned runs instead of the requisite 3 to qualify as a QS.  He has a 3.26 ERA (18th in the AL) with a 1.28 WHIP.  In his career he's had seasons of 16+ wins four times.  His 6.89 K/9 rate is nearly his career rate of 7.03.   His BB/9 rate is 37th among all starting pitchers in baseball.  Batters are hitting .258 off him, which puts him in the top-25 between Felix Hernandez and Johan Santana.

That's not too shabby for Kevin Millwood.  Naturally, he plays for the Orioles, so he's 0-4.

Jose Valverde is my new favorite pitcher

It used to be Sammy Gervacio.  In years past it was David Cone, Pedro Martinez, and Jose Lima.  I harbor an appreciation for Joba's rookie year, and I respect aspects of John Rocker's career.

In an era of the ubiquitous athlete celebration, baseball has carved out a strange entertainment niche where mutual respect and adherence to unwritten rules of conduct are enforced by both managers and players.  You can't watch an NFL running back gain a first down on a six yard off-tackle rush without being subjected to some ridiculous ball flip and giant karate-chop first-down display.  Kobe Bryant will stare down opponent benches after nailing a 3-pointer, hold it for just a second too long, then break a wry grin and start shaking his head.  The message is clear:  I'm the best player in this arena, and you're watching me happen.  Suck it.  Soccer goals are intricately choreographed affairs, involving one or multiple players sliding on knees and/or chests, sometimes with limbs splayed like airplane wings, and frequently involves nudity.  The most exciting thing that can happen in a football game is when TO or Ochocinco score a touchdown and there's five seconds of bated-breath in anticipation of a penalty- or fine-inducing celebration.  Mo Williams dunking on Rajon Rondo will induce incredulous standing, arm-restraining, mouth-gaping, leaping, and fifteen seconds of childlike revelry on the Cavs bench.

In baseball, a pitcher will throw at your head if you watch your homerun a little too long.  Joba Chamberlain caused some of 2009's (or 2008's?) biggest drama because he fist-pumped and howled after a strikeout.  This earned him castigation from the general baseball writer crowd for disrespecting his opponents.  It's ridiculous, but Joba's apparently earned a reputation for showing something called emotion while pumped full of adrenaline in a major sporting event.  Manny Ramirez is often criticized for dramatically watching his homeruns sail over the wall during a slow trot.  Baseball fans should be enjoying the single event that can cause Manny Ramirez to have any kind of noticible reaction to anything baseball-related.

John Rocker cursed himself into a redfaced fury whenever he gave up a run.  Lima and Pedro had reputations for being particularly jeering and animated.  David Cone pitched with a grin, and is to date the only pitcher I've seen give someone else a hotfoot.

Last night, Jose Valverde, the first time I've ever seen him pitch that didn't involve Sportscenter, struck out the side in the 9th inning against the Yankees in a tight 5-4 game when it seemed the Yanks had momentum.  After each strikeout, which involved Swisher, Texeira, and A-Rod, he demonstrated some variety of excitement.  His first performance was a slide-step off the mound, then a breathless squat on the grass as he removed his cap.  The second was a skip and an identical squat.  The last:  Squat, jump, 180 degree leap, double-fist-pump, kick, then some shouting and staring as he greeted his catcher.

I fucking loved it.

I'm sick of these classy robots like Jeter casually grinding out wins, or battered pitchers calmly explaining their bad luck in post-game interviews.  I want to watch players that behave like human beings.  The Tigers just avoided a sweep against baseball's most illustrious team by striking out the 2-3-4 hitters (involving two probable hall-of-famers) in a one-run game at home.  If your closer can't get pumped for that, then your team isn't worth watching.  It makes no sense for the player to get ripped in the baseball press for a behavior dwarfed by what everyone in the stands was doing at that precise moment.  I want to see Madson break his toe against a chair.  I want to see some more water coolers get their shit kicked.  I want to see as much heart going into playing the games as fans put into watching them.

The motivations for piracy

Indie game developer Wolfire Games recently created a limited-time sale, The Humble Bundle, which combines six generally well-received games from separate developers into one pay-what-you-want package with no limits on download quantity, no DRM, no authentication, no keys.  Buyers could also specify which percentages of their purchase price would go to the developers, and which would go to charities such as Child's Play or the EFF.  They offered credit card payment options via Paypal, Amazon, and Google Checkout, and the few people that e-mailed Wolfire regarding their inability to pay via those methods were treated to a free bundle on the house for the inconvenience.  I think this was an important event in the world of internet consumerism and specifically digital software distribution.

Digital Rights Management has sparked an ongoing debate in certain gaming- and tech-minded circles, regarding the balance between a publisher's rights to prevent piracy and the consumer's rights to not be inconvenienced or harassed by an overbearing publisher.  Gaming giant Ubisoft, publisher of the Assassins Creed line, recently required constant internet connections and server authentication for single-player play of Assassins Creed 2, which they argue is a step towards preventing pirated copies of AC2 from being played.  It seemed only appropriate, in terms of cosmic irony, that the AC2 authentication servers crashed on day 2 and prevented every single person on Earth from playing for 24 hours.  This particular implementation of DRM also means no PC user could ever play this game on a laptop that wasn't in a (free) wifi spot, or on a desktop experiencing an internet outage.  If you drop connection to the Ubisoft servers mid-game, AC2 locks you out of the game (and erases all progress since your last save) until it can reconnect.

Sony's Playstation 3 frequently updates its firmware whenever Sony discovers that some enterprising young hacker has cracked the hardware's encryption schemes.  To combat the most recent cracking attempts, Sony has eliminated the PS3's ability to load alternative operating systems, a feature that sold at least a handful of units to Linux users.  Their online store, Playstation Network, is also heavily locked down with DRM.  A recent leap-year-related hardware glitch on a specific clock chip in older PS3 models caused a system clock error that prevented perhaps half their user base from accessing PSN.  PSN is used for trophy syncing.  Almost all modern PS3 games sync trophies at game launch.  Therefore everyone who couldn't get onto PSN was also locked out of playing even single-player games for almost four days, and unplugging the network cable didn't fix the problem.

Large game developers say they've been forced into implementing such draconian DRM because piracy severely impacts their bottom line.  I don't think we'll ever know exactly how much money EA or Activision loses to pirates, but the number is nonzero, so they have something of a point.  The flip side of the argument is much more fun to explore, and is something Wolfire just broke wide open.

There are many defenses software and media pirates use to justify their copyright infringement:

• It's not theft if I just make a copy.  I'm not denying anybody anything.
• You can't own information.  Data is free.  I'm just copying information.  It's not a crime because copyright doesn't exist.
• I'd buy it legitimately if it wasn't so egregiously expensive.  Their pricing scheme forced me.
• I don't agree with their DRM, so I wanted a hacked copy.
• Why do I want to give money to a big publisher?  The coders/artists that actually made the software/song/movie hardly see any of that cash.
• I don't trust credit card transactions, so I'll download it from some Russian torrent site instead.
• I wouldn't have paid money anyway, so it's not like they're losing a sale.
• If there's no demo, I'm not paying money for it.

This can lead to some pretty epic defenses of pirate activity, like this thread at a tech-heavy web forum.  I generally find the sum of these arguments to be the equivalent of the "I'm not touching you!" defense.  You know, when you stick your index finger a millimeter away from your sibling's face.  In a technical sense, no, you're not touching him/her, but you're still being an annoying twat.  In a technical sense, it's not literally theft, but it's the spirit of thievery and denying someone monetary compensation for their work.  If information is free, then surely so is that collection of atoms sitting in your house in the form of a large-screen television and your pile of bank statements.  Running over some pedestrian with your car isn't technically murder under the law, but it sure as hell is manslaughter.  Etc.

So what happened last week was pretty interesting.  Wolfire's bundle sale eliminated many of the purported barriers to legitimate purchases.  Its developers get paid for their own direct work, you can pay whatever price you want, you can send the money to charity if you want, there's no DRM, and if paying by credit card is too hard you can actually just e-mail Wolfire and you get your bundle on the house.

I think it's a big deal that on monday Wolfire's blog had an entry that stated, based on some loose in-house statistics, that 25% of their website downloads were pirate downloads.  This doesn't include torrent activity.  When you buy the bundle, they e-mail you a link to the download page, but there's no tracking and no account information being processed, no IDs or logins, no authentication.  You can share the link with anyone, as occurred on many forums across the globe.

On the one hand, 25% piracy is probably pretty low for a computer game with no DRM.  On the other, you could literally pay one penny and have that counted as a legitimate sale, and 25% of individuals decided that one penny was just too much to handle, or that payment via credit card was too troublesome (and let's face it, the people who read the websites to be informed about the humble bundle are precisely the kinds of people who already have PayPal and Amazon accounts).  Frenzied back-and-forths are occuring across the internet, trying to exlpain away the 25% (I have seven computers!  It was all kids without credit cards!) or demonize the pirate crowd (One cent was too much, eh?).

Wolfire's response to this is entertaining.  Instead of righteous indignation and publicly outing the worst of the link-sharers, they offered this conclusion:

When considering any kind of DRM, we have to ask ourselves, "How many legitimate users is it ok to inconvenience in order to reduce piracy?" The answer should be none.

I think this is an important step in distancing the course of the digital economy from increasingly restrictive DRM policies.  Piracy cannot be stopped.   Wolfire just demonstrated that eliminating the main excuses for piracy still results in rampant piracy.  However, the runaway success of the bundle sale ($956,704 raised at the time of this writing) suggests that there are price platforms and schemes where piracy can be rendered irrelevant.  I'm looking forward to seeing if other publishers and software distributors attempt similar sales with slightly different parameters (some DRM, or fixed prices) and gaining some insight on how the variables affect the bottom line.

A DRM-free environment is something I find more palatable than a universal DRM-ridden subscription-software based model.

I'll reflect further on this while I'm playing UT2004 tonight.

Late edit links:
Rock, Paper, Shotgun is frustrated with Ubisoft's always-on DRM.
Ars Technica trolls its reader base to poke the piracy beehive
Joystiq discusses pending litigation against Sony for their pursuit of DRM nirvana

More Observations

AKA:  Cool things on Fangraphs

Best slider pitcher:  Francisco Liriano
Best slider hitter:  Ty Wigginton
Worst slider hitter:  Ryan Ludwick

Best cutter pitcher:  Phil Hughes
Best cutter hitter:  Evan Longoria
Worst cutter hitter:  Victor Martinez

Best curveball pitcher:  Adam Wainright
Best curveball hitter:  Robinson Cano  (surprisingly)
Worst curveball hitter:  Pablo Sandoval

Best changeup pitcher:  Tim Lincecum
Best changeup hitter:  Andre Ethier
Worst changeup hitter:  Jose Reyes

Brandon Morrow is the second best starting pitcher at getting batters to swing and miss.  Carlos Marmol is the best reliever.  Doug Fister is third worst.

Yovani Gallardo throws more balls than any other starter.  The pitchers who throw the fewest balls are Rodrigo Lopez, Johan Santana, and Brian Matusz.  I own two of them.  Maybe they should attack the zone a little less.

David Wright is striking out in half of his at-bats in May but still hitting .258 for the month.  Ike Davis is striking out 40% of the time but batting over .300 for the month.

Ryan Braun: Overachieving?

Ryan Braun is the left fielder and third batter for the Milwaukee Brewers, a team I picked to win the NL Wild Card based on what I anticipated to be a monster offensive season.  Braun's current stat line projects to the following end of season results:

.365 BA, which would have won the batting title in both leagues every year since 2004
.445 OBP, which would have won both AL and NL titles last year
.603 slugging, which could lead a league in a universe where Albert Pujols never existed
142 RBI, which would have been the best in baseball in 2009
158 runs, which would tie for the 18th best single season tally ever, and the most since Lou Gehreg in 1936
40 stolen bases, double his tally last year
234 hits, the highest since Ichiro in 2004
91 walks, a career high by 34
86 strikeouts, 35 fewer than last year
30 homeruns, a career low

He's doing this in a lineup that involves Jim Edmonds or Craig Counsell batting ahead of him, and the guy behind him slugging under .400, and the leadoff guy doesn't steal bases.  What we can take away from this is Braun had a fantastic April and a better May.  Beyond that, I'm not sure how to approach this.  I can derive a positive outlook and point at his improved K and BB rates, the fact that his swing rate is the lowest of his career and contact rate is the highest, and laud his improved batting eye as the driving force in his 2010 success.  Or I can point out that his .385 BABIP is abnormally high, his .238 ISO is lower than his 2007-2008 seasons, he's not hitting homeruns like he used to, and that his increased speed is the result of a lower playing weight which impacted his power slightly.

Rickie Weeks may not be able to maintain a .390 OBP or stay healthy the whole year.  But then also Prince Fielder can't continue slugging .395.  Alcides Escobar isn't the electric player the Yahoo writer bullpen was dreaming of, and Corey Hart has lost it, but Casey McGehee is tearing it up.

I know that Braun is in the class of player who's capable of emerging with this kind of dominating MVP-type season.  I guess we'll see if it holds up.  For the record, for Braun's career, May and June are better than his Aprils, and July is his best month of all.  If his new walk and strikeout rates are permanent changes in his batting approach, and if Prince Fielder returns to form, and if they can continue beating up on the Pirates, the sky is the limit.

Suck on my Sneak Attack

I'll try not to spray my Eldritch Blast all over your face.

Not Dallas Braden news

Alternative title:  The Reds, wtf?

I want to tell you that the Reds are a poor offensive team with bad pitching.  I want to explain how mindblowingly terrible their lineup is and then openly wonder why Dusty Baker has a job that pays him in legal tender.  I then want to transition into a Carlos Lee fat joke.  However, I can do none of these things because Lee's player page on Yahoo is causing an integer overflow in the Weight field and crashing IE6.

In terms of total runs scored, the Reds are 14th in the league, which aside from being marginally above average sandwiches them between the Cardinals, Marlins, Rangers, and Tigers; four teams with a reputation for scoring runs in bulk.  They're in the middle of the MLB pack in virtually every offensive metric.  This isn't bad for a team that spends less on payroll than the Royals.

Their pitching has less upside.  Their 5.28 ERA is third worst in baseball, and their .328 BABIP is tied for last place with the Brewers.  I went to BABIP instead of other, more meaningful statistics here because it turns out the internal numbers aren't quite as bad as the narrative would like.  They're in the bottom third of the league in WHIP and various other ratios, total bases, etc.  But we're not talking third worst across the board.  The end result is an average offense and poor but not catastrophic pitching.

So how the fuck do they have a winning record?  They're 16-15, which is second amongst the six teams in the NL Central if you actually count the Astros and Pirates as official major league baseball teams.  That record is 7th best in the NL, ahead of the Marlins, Brewers, Mariners, Rockies, of which on paper all seem much better than the Reds.  Now, you might say "small sample size!"  or "check the schedule!", but the Reds have already played six games against the Cardinals, and they've also had a series each against the Mets, Dodgers, and Padres (three of the better teams, in my opinion, in the NL).  They've only had one series against the lowly Astros (and swept them) and Pirates (and got swept).  Despite the relative weakness of the lower half of their division, they haven't had an easy schedule thus far.

I think the most interesting but easily accessible stat is that the Reds lead baseball in reliever wins.  That's nine wins via late-inning offensive comebacks, versus only seven for the starters.  They've won 9 of their last 13 games (sweeping the Astros, winning series against the Mets and Cubs) and of those 9 wins, 5 had their winning runs scored in the 7th inning or later.  Even the 14-2 beatdown they have the Cubs on the 8th involved 11 runs after the 7th inning.

Are we witnessing a clutch offensive resurgence for Cincinnati?  For the month of May, the Reds are ninth in baseball in total runs, sixth in homeruns, ninth in OPS, yet had the second worst K/BB rate.  Here are the "last week" Yahoo stats for the three guys at the top of the lineup.

Orlando Cabrera:  .385/.429/.500  4, 2, 1
Brandon Phillips:  .320/.364/.680  6, 2, 1
Joey Votto:  .417/.481/.833  7, 7, 0

Not bad.  This is what's been expected of Votto, but Brandon Phillips showing some power is a nice change from demonstrating that power by swinging at the air really hard.  Orlando Cabrera getting on base is just a bonus.  The leadoff spot was supposed to be where Drew Stubbs could develop into the Great White Hope, a 6'4" speedster that white baseball writers could salivate over (I'm unable to source where I read something about Stubbs and his "graceful" gait, but I'm pretty sure it was a Yahoo writer).  This is the same writing universe where Steve Nash is god's gift but apparently Rajon Rondo has some nebulous character issues and Deron Williams/CP3 are selfish, where JaMarcus Russell is "lazy" and doesn't deserve another shot but Brady Quinn just needed a change of scenery, where Tim Tebow's religious beliefs are national news and somehow unique from every black NFL player's religious beliefs, where Ricky Williams is a standard joke but Tim Lincecum is business as usual, where if Joe Mauer currently had the rate stats that Geovany Soto did he'd be plastered on the front Yahoo page every single day until his OBP went back below .450, etc.  Anyway, Stubbs is batting .181, which qualifies as slumping poorly enough to get you replaced by Orlando Cabrera.

There are indicators suggesting the pitching is improving.  In two starts this month Aaron Harang has kept his ERA under 8, and Mike Leake continues to impress (another win and QS on Sunday).  If Harang can sniff his former success, and if one more pitcher (like, say, Aroldis Chapman....c'mon Dusty, you know you want to ruin this guy's career sooner rather than later) can post some respectable numbers, the Reds could become a serious contender in the NL.

Idle Observations

The Brewers lead the league in HBP with 18.  I noticed this and immediately thought to myself "Surely that's because Prince Fielder's gut crowds the plate."  Sure enough, Prince leads baseball with 7, two ahead of teammake Rickie Weeks.

Intentional walks received are not a particularly good barometer of any overall offensive value.  The Cardinals (an excellent offensive team) have 21, which is more than twice as many as the second place team (the Padres, an awful offensive team).  The Yankees, arguably the best lineup in baseball, have only two, tied at the bottom of MLB with the Astros (one of the two worst lineups) and Cubs.

The following players have more walks than hits:  Nick Johnson, Chipper Jones, Mark Texeira, Brian McCann.

Juan Pierre and Chris Coghlan have a .000 ISO.  Also notable, Todd Helton has the fifth lowest ISO in baseball.

The White Sox have three players in the bottom five for BABIP.

Derek Jeter is the biggest groundball hitter in the league, followed by such stars as:  Luis Castillo, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Denard Span, Erick Aybar, Juan Pierre, Yunel Escobar, Cameron Maybin, and Russell Martin.  That's some company he keeps.  Jeter and Gardner are also 1/2 in the league in infield hits.

Miguel Tejada sees more fastballs than anyone else.  Ryan Howard sees the fewest.

Worst FB Hitter:  Aramis Ramirez
Best FB Hitter:  Ryan Braun

More to come later.

Fallen Angels

Let's play a game.  I'll post selected statistics for two different Angels batters, and you have to guess who they are.

A:  .395 OBP, 6.7 speed rating, 0.89 BB/K
B:  .325 OBP, 4.1 speed rating, 0.59 BB/K

Take a minute and think about it.  It's tricky.  This is a filler sentence to give you some time, since I don't feel like filling vertical space with silly images of pimped alpacas or whatever.  Ok, ready?  This was something of a trick question, as player B is Erick Aybar this year, the Angels leadoff hitter, and player A is 2009's Chone Figgins, last year's leadoff hitter.  Let's play again.

A:  .295 AVG, .334 OBP, .460 SLG
B:  .236 AVG, .309 OBP, .400 SLG

This one's easier for this crowd.  Player B:  Hideki Matsui, cleanup hitter and DH.  Player A:  2009's Vlad Guerrero, cleanup hitter and DH.  Do you see where I"m going with this yet?

A:  .272/.350/.492, 27.0% K%
B:  .230/.329/.361, 37.7% K%

Trick question again!  They're both Mike Napoli, last year versus this year.

A:  7.4%  BB%, .263 ISO
B:  3.3% BB%, .179 ISO

Say hello to Kendry Morales, 4th round pick (aka pick number 6) who was just acquired in our league for undrafted free agent acquisitions Austin "Luckiest Player on Earth" Jackson and Paul "Mr. 2006" Konerko.  Alright, one more easy one.

A:  0.85 CLE
B:  1.00 CLE

Player A is, of course, Brandon Wood (who probably wouldn't be chosen to pinch hit for pitchers in the national league right now) and Player B is the surging Carlos Lee.  By "surging" I mean in the sense that any largely fluid mass, like an ocean, might surge and swell with the tide, not necessarily anything having to do with baseball.

The point to take away from this little game is that the Angels, second last year in total runs scored, are now tied for 23rd.  Every batter from 2009 is having a down year, and the guys they got to replace their key departures are significantly worse.  I don't really have a good explanation, but I would wager a guess that losing a .400 OBP leadoff guy who can tear up the basepath like Chone Figgins and replacing his spot in the lineup with Erick Aybar is like going from eating a lovingly prepared meal at the dining room table on fine china to eating off the barren garage floor.  If the table isn't set, it can ruin the whole meal.

This isn't to say Chone's faring any better with the Mariners right now (.336 OBP, team second worst offense in baseball) but the Mariners were bad to begin with (third worst offense in 2009).  The Angels, on the other hand, have suffered a complete offensive collapse, and they're not yet showing any signs of recovery.  How the mighty have fallen.

Available Starting Pitchers

A brief list of available starting pitchers that I would probably stash away on my bench, if my bench wasn't already full of AAA and AARP prospects.

Brandon Morrow (SP,RP Blue Jays):  I spot-started him against Baltimore at the beginning of the season, eating his five earned runs and then quickly tossing him back.  His next start was even worse.  However, since then, over his past four games:  2-1, 2.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 12.6 K/9.  His high BABIP means he might be able to continue trending towards servicable numbers in the future, despite his AL East opponents.  3.81 xFIP.  If he fixes his BB/9 problems, he's a must-add.

Mike Leake (SP, Reds):  On the season, 2-0, 2.94 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 5.88 K/9.  Those numbers could keep him in the league and Chapman on my bench for another month or two.  He's also apparently developing some better control, issuing only four walks over his last twenty innings.  A word of caution, four of his five starts were against the Cubs, Pirates, Astros, and Mets.

Jonathon Niese (SP, Mets):  I'm wary of any Mets player, since Citi Field is where talent goes to die, but his line over the last four starts is:  1-0, 2.25 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 9.0 K/9.  His .382 BABIP should come down, and a 4.06 xFIP is interesting enough for a seventh starter to hang onto until we see whether he can stop giving up 12 hits a game.

Jason Vargas (SP, RP Mariners):  Last four starts:  2-1, 2.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 7.52 K/9.  He's been very lucky over that span, giving up only sixteen hits over 26 1/3 innings, and that's probably not sustainable for a guy with weak stuff like Vargas and his 87 MPH fastball.  He's worth picking up to monitor his success, however, and the RP eligibility is huge.

Kris Medlen (SP, RP Braves):  I really don't want to use Medlen's reliever stats to make a starter projection, but now that Jurrjens is hitting the DL he's going to have a second chance at the Atlanta rotation.  He was a mid-season callup last year, even before Tommy Hanson, and was afforded four starts, of which three were awful, and two didn't get past four innings.  However, the 9.32 K/9 was consistent with his strikeout rates as a reliever that year and next.  In his AAA stint in 2009, he was 5-0, 1.19 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 10.51 K/9.  In AA 2008:  7-8, 3.52 ERA (2.87 FIP), 1.23 WHIP, 8.98 K/9.  If he can keep himself from blowing up, and actually pitch through the 5th inning of his starts, he could be a season-altering asset.

Carl Crawford: Losing a step or bulking up?

Carl Crawford has been my keeper for a while.  Even the year he wasn't, he fell to me in the second round of the draft.  The last time he wasn't killing my slugging and RBI totals was 2005 (a strange year that involved four future Mets, who are all now awful).  I know Carl Crawford's habits and streak tendencies (he's streaky like Ryan Braun, who'll both lay dormant for entire weeks before unleashing a 10-game flurry of homeruns and base swipes).  I know that he's played on historically bad teams (the only .500 slugger on the 2006 crew was Rocco Baldelli, the same year that Ty Wigginton led the team in RBI with 79, two ahead of Crawford).

I also know that now he's on one of the best offensive teams in baseball.  The Rays currently lead MLB in total runs scored, though they fall behind in specific power and batting categories.  They're just a very good, well-rounded offensive club in 2010, despite some key 2009 breakouts having poor starts.  I believe this has flowed through to Carl's own personal statistics.  Currently sandwiched between Bartlett and Zobrist, he's upped his walk rate to 11.1%, compared to his 5.4% career mark.  He's scoring more runs thanks to a Longoria-Upton-Pena lineup batting while he's on base.  He's also batting .330, due in part to his high .378 BABIP.  He's on pace for the following line:

.330/.400/.530  115 runs, 75 RBI, 40 SB

Sustainable?  I don't know.  High-speed guys who can beat out throws tend to have an inflated BABIP, so it's harder to use that statistic as a loose measure of batting luck (Ichiro's career BABIP is .357, for example).  .378 is possible to maintain for a full year; Crawford did it in 2007.  I have my suspicions about the walk rate, since he's swinging at more balls compared to 2009 and making contact with fewer of them, which would suggest the OBP is due to come down.  There are two things that are puzzling me.

Power:  Crawford's ISO is .200, small in the world of sluggers but far and away a career high for a player known more for his stolen bases than his extra-base hits.  He's on pace for 57 doubles, 35% higher than his career high, with a healthy number of homeruns and triples too.  .530 slugging is nearly 100 points higher than his career figure.  But there's no supporting data for this power surge.  He's not hitting significantly more line drives or ground balls or flyballs than any other line in his career.  If anything he's popping out more.  He's obviously not swinging for the fences.  What's the deal?

Speed:  Through May 5th of 2009, Crawford had 19 stolen bases.  Granted six of them came when the Rays exposed the Red Sox defensive catcher woes and opened the floodgates for future beatdowns like Nelson Cruz's 5-SB romp, so let's dial that back down to 1, and credit Crawford with 14 non-Varitek SBs.    He'd also accrued a grand total of zero CS.  He wasn't caught.  He was a golden god of sliding into second base.  Now he only has seven swipes.  He hasn't successfully stolen a base since April 22nd, and has been thrown out three times since.  That's nineteen times on base, though six of those times he was already standing on second or third.  I specifically avoided drafting another 50+ SB guy because I figured I had one already.  I don't even have one SB this week from any of my players, and only four last week.  What's the deal?

Theory:  Based on nothing but uninformed speculation and idle observation, I think Carl's bulked up a bit.  I think his playing weight this year is higher than years prior, mostly muscle, which has translated into more balls getting punched out into the gaps.  He's swinging harder, which has upped his slugging rates.  The extra few pounds means he's not quite as spry on the basepath, still speedy but no longer league-leading.

Alternative Theory:  He's only a month younger than I am, but this was the year, approaching age 29, when my knee started hurting for no particular reason, when my metabolism completely lost it, when I had to drop all snack foods and sugars from my diet to avoid ballooning weight concerns, when I couldn't wake up refreshed even after eight hours of uninterrupted sleep, when staying awake past 12:30am is an ordeal.  I know Crawford's a professional athlete in a physical condition I couldn't even dream of having, but just maybe he's transitioning into the same middle-age phase that I am, and his body's holding more weight, and he lost a millisecond off his jump, and playing 155 games is taking more of a toll on his body (in 2009 he had more SBs in May than in July-September combined) than it used to.

Either way, Crawford is my second best hitter right now, and I'll have to enjoy the ride.

Sadly No: The Rangers are not the best starting pitching staff in baseball.

On a non-baseball internet forum I frequent, the argument has been put forward that Nolan Ryan's influence on pitcher conditioning and getting later into games is the sole reason the Texas Rangers pitching staff is much improved over years prior.  This is entirely possible, as their two best starters (CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis...who knew?) are averaging about 6 2/3 innings per start, a marked improvement over, say, the pre-Nolan 2007 season when 5 IP seemed like a pitch count limit.  The argument was also put forward that Texas has the best starting five in baseball.

In terms of overall staff figures, this is plainly absurd.  Texas's respectable 3.65 starter ERA is good for 8th in the league, but is a full run higher than that of the Cardinals, Rays, and Giants.  Their 158 IP is only 17th, despite Ryan's philosophy.  Their composite 9-6 record isn't poor, but they don't compare to the 15 wins held by the Yankees, Rays, and Twins.  The 74 walks issued by Rangers SPs is second only to the Rockies.  By second, I mean second highest, so perhaps "29th best" is more appropriate.  This puts them 23rd in K/BB, 13th in WHIP, and their xFIP is the 6th highest in baseball.

Now Harrison and Feldman might be better than Todd Wellemeyer (6.33 ERA) but the Giants 1-4 are so much better than the Rangers 1-4 that I don't consider this a serious comparison.  Or consider that the worst Rays starter right now, arguably Jeff Niemann, has a 2.76 ERA and no losses.  Or maybe it's James Shields, highest ERA (3.15) but he's 4-0 with more strikeouts than innings pitched.  Hell, the Cubs worst starter right now is Ted Lilly, and I'd still take him over Harrison and Feldman and probably Harden.  You can even make an argument for the Twins and Nick Blackburn, or Lohse and the Cardinals.

This isn't to say Texas fans shouldn't feel optimistic about their pitching for the first time since Nolan Ryan, they're doing quite well.  But the Yankees, Cardinals, and Giants each have four pitchers putting up ludicrous video game pitching numbers right now and are clearly the cream of the staff pitching crop in 2010.  It'll be interesting to see which of this year's out-of-nowhere studs falls apart first.

My bet is Brad Penny.

Liveblog pt 2

8:33: Matusz walks Gardner at the top of the inning by following my advice and tossing a bunch of breaking balls that dropped out of the zone.  Prediction:  Gardner steals second, scores on a Jeter single, my head explodes.  Meanwhile, Cervelli at 0-2:  I've never seen a high slider before, but he threw it, and Cervelli punched it into right field.  Two men on, no outs, a backup defensive shortstop at the plate. %^$^&%$&%$ Matusz throwing error on a fucking bunt, Gardner scores, still no outs..

8:49:  A walk with the bases loaded.  Johan Santana can tell you what comes next.  Alex is home now so I'm done here.

NYY-BAL Liveblog

6:56:  Welcome to my Yankees-Orioles liveblog, wherein I'll document the precise minute my hopes for this fantasy season shattered.  Tonight's match up will feature O's rookie phenom and WHIP-killer Brian Matusz, also known as Bad SP4 for Carl's Bad Caverns, versus AJ Burnett, a Tommy John survivor putting up the best stats of his career.  Michael Kay has just notified me that not only is Mark Texiera hitting, Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher are en fuego.  This will end poorly.

7:01:  I think Al Leiter just called Nick Swisher "Nickalick".

7:04:  The 2010 stats of four starting pitchers I drafted last year:

3-1  3.16  1.19
6-0  0.87  1.02
1-1  2.84  1.01
4-0  1.50  1.08

7:09:  Adam Jones was one of the consensus fantasy writer sleeper picks this year, so it makes me happy to see him struggling.  I love it every time these hacks are abysmally incorrect.  In the time it took me to type those two sentences, Jones has already struck out on three pitches.

7:13  AJ has gotten every batter this inning to 0-2.  Now considering that these are Orioles hitters, maybe it's not an earth-shattering feat of pitching prowess, but it's still impressive.  His problem is that he historically can't locate his punch-out pitches.  He grazed a fastball off Wieters' shoelaces before chucking a fastball over the middle for his second strikeout.  I probably shouldn't count on Matusz for the win tonight, nevermind a quality start.

7:19: Curtis Granderson can't hit left-handed pitching, s -- first pitch to Jeter is smacked for a double, FML -- so he's out of the lineup, triggering an odd cascading shift through the lineup where Jeter is DHing and Pena is playing SS.  With Posada out of the lineup due to old-man-hip, this might not be awful.

7:23:  Matusz isn't an overpowering arm.  His fastball tops out at 92, but mainly he plays at 90, which means batters with traditionally good contact rates like Texeira can foul off seven or eight 2-strike fastballs in a row and look impressive doing so.  When the offspeed pitch finally comes, it's always high and crushable, and only two extremely top notch defensive plays are keeping the score from being 2-0 right now.  WHERE ARE THE STRIKEOUTS!?

7:36:  This is the shit I'm talking about.  Matusz has Cano, an awful breaking ball hitter, 1-2, and he throws three straight mediocre fastballs until one is finally high enough that not even a hacker like Cano can lay off.  One good changeup down in the zone could have put him away.  Now Thames is down 1-2, and another fastball comes.  Gardner sees three fastballs and flies out to LF.  Matusz is going to get crushed his second time through the lineup if he doesn't start throwing offspeed pitches effectively.  Fastballs against Jeter-Swisher-Texeira-ARod-Cano is a recipe for a Scherzer-like performance.

7:48:  Kay:  "Boy, he's got very.  Good.  Stuff tonight."  I agree.  Despite giving up an unearned run and two baserunners with zero outs, AJ's struck out Jones and Markakis and now has Wieters 0-2.  There's only been one pitch thus far that I would categorize as distinctly off target, against Wieters in the first inning.  One more nasty curve, and he's struck out the side.

8:01:  Adam Jones misses a diving catch, and now the backup catcher is sitting on third base, and I'm waiting to witness the ERA floodgates.  ANGOR.  On a positive note, Brandon Phillips has a homerun and Chipper Jones has a hit.  These are the sorts of nightly results that inspire optimism for my awful team.  "I got a hit!  Yay!"

8:07:  Miguel Tejada's gyrations and pre-swing footstomping are far more entertaining now that he's rocking a serious gut.

8:19:  Matusz has A-Rod 1-2, here are the pitches that follow:  fastball outside fouled, slider low strikeout.  Throw the breaking ball!  Cano:  fastball high (foul), fastball high (foul), fastball high (foul), fastball middle of the plate for a single.  @%$^@#%^!

Situation report: The Infield

Geovany Soto remains my hottest hitter; a blessing in that it's hard to get .500 OBP and SLG out of the catcher slot, and a curse in that it means the guy hitting 8th in an NL lineup is my most productive infielder.  On the season he has only 8 RBIs, which is two more than Chipper Jones (batting 3rd) and one less than Brandon Phillips (who spent most of the season as the Reds cleanup hitter).  While his hitting has cooled off lately, he's still walking (19 walks in 21 games) and I'm happy to let him be my on-base sponge while I wait to see what Carlos Santana turns into.

To loosely paraphrase some random fantasy writer I read recently but can't recall, somebody told Mark Texeira it was May.  His line in the past week is .333/.438/.407 with four runs and three RBI, which is..still shitty for basically my second round keeper, but demonstrates marked improvement.  I can't find an online repository of LOB statistics but I'd be willing to bet Mark's pretty high on the list this year.  If he can start knocking in runs and stop ending innings, I'll stop despairing.

Brandon Phillips and Chipper Jones are bad.  Despite a .355 OBP last week, that puts Brandon at .312 on the season.  He's not running or hitting or scoring or knocking in runs.  He's just ensuring I get a pretty decent draft pick next year.  Chipper meanwhile had exactly one hit last week.  His line ten games ago was .293/.431/.537, but now it's .206/.372/.353.  So far this season he's strained his ribs, pulled an oblique, and is currently playing through hip pain.  In about five weeks he'll run out of non-comedic body parts to injure.

Stephen Drew is hitting!  He's maintaining a rather consistent .289/.361/.474 by creatively managing his success against RHP (.329 BA) against strategic awfulness versus LHP (.143 BA) so that he never gets too good, out of respect to his brother JD.  That Stephen, always taking one for the team (unless "one" is a walk, or "team" is the Diamondbacks).  It's at least enough that I'm comfortable dropping Escobar to acquire this week's waiver wire stud David Freese, whose hip isn't constructed of balled-up newspaper and might actually drive in some runs this summer if Chipper Jones can't.

Of appropriate levels of tragedy to qualify for the category of events that occur in threes.

5/2/2010:  Johan Santana, 3.2 IP, 8 hits, 10 ER, 2 BB, 1 K versus the Phillies
5/3/2010:  Max Scherzer, 4.1 IP, 8 hits, 10 ER, 4 BB, 1 K versus the Twins
5/4/2010:  Brian Matusz, ????????????? versus the Yankees

CC Fatbathia

So I turned on the Yankees-Orioles game precisely at 7:05pm, and YES was doing the team lineups.  When CC Sabathia came up on the screen during his warmup tosses, I thought to myself "Oh right, I need to take the screen off of stretch mode" (we frequently stretch/zoom the image when Alex is watching 4:3 content) because CC looked so wide and huge.

The TV was, in fact, in normal display mode the whole time.

The rest of the draft

ROUND 20:  Magglio Ordonez
ROUND 21: Jeremy Affeldt

They filled my bench and RP4 slots and were both off my team the first week.  That's about as much energy as I want to spend on these guys.

I tread where AJ Mass fears to tread

AJ Mass, professional fantasy sports analyst for ESPN.com and amateurish stat-head, today published an article on the law of averages and the impossibility of accurate fantasy prognostication.  Well thanks AJ.  His major premise is that subsets of statistical data based on random events are not predictive of subsets of future random data.  In terms of contribution to the mathematical community this isn't exactly a revelation.  He even simplifies the game of baseball to a sequence of roulette wheel spins, and then uses that argument to justify (improperly) that end-of-year aggregate data projection for baseball is a fool's errand (or a Gambler's).  I find his conclusion rather humorous, considering AJ Mass is the author of the Daily Notes feature on ESPN's fantasy baseball page, which uses 2009 and 2010 pitching statistics to do a favorability ranking for every starting pitcher that day versus specific opponents.  So while on the one hand crapping on the accuracy of data projection re: full season outcomes, here he is writing a daily article purporting to know whether Livan Hernandez is a better start this week than Brett Cecil.

Now maybe his article is a reaction to the undoubtedly thousands of complains he's received since the season began whenever he's gotten a pick egregiously wrong in Daily Notes, but I found it amusing that he's gone on at length to describe his own personal worthlessness in the fantasy sphere.

During the article, Mass took a pass on predicting the future value of three different players under different career circumstances:  Colby Rasmus (the Hot Start), Mark Texeira (the Slow Start), and Roy Oswalt (a category he treated as Personal History versus a particular team, when the more interesting treatment would have been the Can This Old Veteran Keep It Together).  In accordance to my earlier writing regarding the primary focus of majority fantasy writing, I'd like to talk about the sleeper, Colby Rasmus.

Unlike most rookies, he was afforded a full season of work, starting the 2009 season on the Cardinals roster.  His line of .251/.307/.407 72/52 was awful by most standards (certainly fantasy ones), especially for players with no speed (3 stolen bases all year).  His 20% strikeout rate was, well, not very good either (though not quite as bad as some of the other Cardinals outfielders), and his .282 BABIP suggests he wasn't unlucky enough to write off the season as a cosmic fluke.

So then what can we make of his current .288/.422/.630?  Here are the relevant supporting figures:

18.7 BB% is almost triple his 2009 rate and 50% more than his historical minor league walk rates.
.375 BABIP is higher than average but within realistic boundaries.
37.0 K% means Austin Jackson is going to have a run for his money.
.342 ISO means there's some serious power here.

The walk rate improvement is, I think, the most notable piece of information to examine.  Mike Silver of The Hardball Times wrote the following in October:

His 50.1 Swing% is possibly the most disturbing of all, as any hitter who swings this often will never garner many free passes. In addition, his 78.6 percent Contact% shows that he is missing on pitches too often. The Contact% is fixable. However, if he can’t refine his swinging tendencies, his OBP outlook will be severely capped due to lack of walks and strikeouts. Assuming pitchers continue to throw him in the zone at approximately the same rate as in '09 (50.9%), Rasmus would have to drop his swing percentage by a few points to see any real gains in his walk rate—and this kind of approach overhaul is not easy to do.

If Contact% is fixible, Colby must not have heard.  His contact rate is down 6.3% from last year.  However, he's dropped his swing rate 10%.  The combination of seeing more balls and swinging at fewer of them has resulted in the dramatic increase in his walk rate.  Is the power legit?  Rasmus slugged .512 and .551 in 2006 and 2007.  His .396 in AAA in 2008 could be worrying, but can be attributed to a knee injury if one were so inclined as to make excuses.

The problem with his sterling minor-minor league performance (and his 2010) is that we have a full year in the majors to use as a comparison, when he was healthy and had a starting job, and could only put together a .407 slugging%.  If I had to guess, I'd say a fair component of that poor power output is a direct result of swinging at bad pitches, and that his improved discipline at the plate portends good things for Rasmus's 2010 season.  He'll come down from .670-land, but I don't think a .275/.375/.520 is out of the question, if we can map his earlier power and later success to a projection.

Not bad for the 18th round.