Monday, May 10, 2010

Ryan Braun: Overachieving?

Ryan Braun is the left fielder and third batter for the Milwaukee Brewers, a team I picked to win the NL Wild Card based on what I anticipated to be a monster offensive season.  Braun's current stat line projects to the following end of season results:

.365 BA, which would have won the batting title in both leagues every year since 2004
.445 OBP, which would have won both AL and NL titles last year
.603 slugging, which could lead a league in a universe where Albert Pujols never existed
142 RBI, which would have been the best in baseball in 2009
158 runs, which would tie for the 18th best single season tally ever, and the most since Lou Gehreg in 1936
40 stolen bases, double his tally last year
234 hits, the highest since Ichiro in 2004
91 walks, a career high by 34
86 strikeouts, 35 fewer than last year
30 homeruns, a career low

He's doing this in a lineup that involves Jim Edmonds or Craig Counsell batting ahead of him, and the guy behind him slugging under .400, and the leadoff guy doesn't steal bases.  What we can take away from this is Braun had a fantastic April and a better May.  Beyond that, I'm not sure how to approach this.  I can derive a positive outlook and point at his improved K and BB rates, the fact that his swing rate is the lowest of his career and contact rate is the highest, and laud his improved batting eye as the driving force in his 2010 success.  Or I can point out that his .385 BABIP is abnormally high, his .238 ISO is lower than his 2007-2008 seasons, he's not hitting homeruns like he used to, and that his increased speed is the result of a lower playing weight which impacted his power slightly.

Rickie Weeks may not be able to maintain a .390 OBP or stay healthy the whole year.  But then also Prince Fielder can't continue slugging .395.  Alcides Escobar isn't the electric player the Yahoo writer bullpen was dreaming of, and Corey Hart has lost it, but Casey McGehee is tearing it up.

I know that Braun is in the class of player who's capable of emerging with this kind of dominating MVP-type season.  I guess we'll see if it holds up.  For the record, for Braun's career, May and June are better than his Aprils, and July is his best month of all.  If his new walk and strikeout rates are permanent changes in his batting approach, and if Prince Fielder returns to form, and if they can continue beating up on the Pirates, the sky is the limit.

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